India's Huge Coal Buildout Lacks Only One Element: Coal.

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"The biggest untold story in the world is now out in the open. Despite warnings from the World Bank about the dangers of unchecked climate change the coal industry has a global pipeline of nearly 1,200 plants planned, 2/3 of which are in India and China. India alone has plans to build a coal fleet nearly twice the size of the entire U.S. coal fleet. But if this pipeline has you thinking that a coal fired future is inevitable think again. These grandiose plans are an illusion the coal industry seeks to maintain because the truth is the majority of this global pipeline is nothing but vapor.

To understand the reality of the industry’s plans take a look at India and the basic math on which their plans rely. India’s huge pipeline will require ~2.4 billion tons of coal by 2030. That's two and a half times what the U.S. currently consumes. More importantly, it’s nearly five times the amount of coal India produces. To feed this beast India is going to need a herculean effort to increase production.

Let's take an optimistic scenario where Coal India (CIL) – the state owned miner responsible for 90 percent of domestic supplies - maintains a robust 7 percent annual growth rate. In this scenario India would increase production to ~ 1.5 billion tons. Despite this mammoth increase in production the country would still face a supply shortfall equal to 920 million tons by 2030 – a shortfall the size of annual U.S. coal demand and 38 percent of the total supply required for the Indian pipeline. That's a jaw-dropping amount of coal and it's the 'optimistic scenario' because it's based on the fantastical belief that CIL will maintain an annual growth rate it has only achieved twice in the past 10 years."

http://sierraclub.typepad.com/compass/2012/11/indias-coal-illusion.html

Some good news for this Monday morning. You're welcome.