Nature Climate Change Article - 5C Temperature Spike Increasingly Likely, Thanks Largely To Coal

[hatrack]

PARIS — Levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are rising annually by around three percent, placing Earth on track for warming that could breach five degrees Celsius (9.0 degrees Fahrhenheit) by 2100, a new study published on Sunday said.

The figure -- among the most alarming of the latest forecasts by climate scientists -- is at least double the 2C (3.6F) target set by UN members struggling for a global deal on climate change.

In 2011, global carbon emissions were 54 percent above 1990 levels, according to the research, published in the journal Nature Climate Change by the Global Carbon Project consortium.

"We are on track for the highest emissions projections, which point to a rise in temperature of between 4C (7.2F) and 6C (10.8F) by the end of the century," said Corinne le Quere, a carbon specialist at the University of East Anglia, eastern England. "The estimate is based on growth trends that seem likely to last," she said in a phone interview, pointing to the mounting consumption of coal by emerging giants.

EDIT

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5iVT3Ev93k_8sDxo9K7F1CIAa7Nig?docId=CNG.a56e6f89f1c9df135607bfe7f56ddcba.01

[Democracyinkind]

1. Good luck to maintaining this kind of civilization on a plus 5 C average

Whimper.. or Bang... it doesn't even matter that much, anymore...

[Ghost Dog]

3. There will be the kind of (feuding, warring) "civilisation"

that would be quite recognisable to those of "ancient times" who experienced the utter absence of rule of law or any kind of attempt at social justice, only amplified due to the degree of unpredictability and the pace of change.

In other words: hell for many, hopelessness for most, sheer paradise for the technologically-enabled, financially-manipulative, deeply corrupt robber-class parasite few.

Until they too fall, having killed the host.

But then, as is the case with so many other such predicted phenomena, methane outgassing for example, we are seeing this happening already.

Much sooner, faster than hitherto predicted.

[GliderGuider]

2. The paper is available here:

Last edited Mon Dec 3, 2012, 12:43 PM - Edit history (1)

http://www.earth-syst-sci-data-discuss.net/5/1107/2012/essdd-5-1107-2012-print.pdf

On edit: It's the data paper, not the discussion, apparently. Still, it's interesting to read to see how thorough the analysis has become over the years. It's a very nice in-depth look at the carbon cycle.