A human-caused climate change signal emerges from the noise

[OKIsItJustMe]

Last edited Thu Nov 29, 2012, 04:19 PM - Edit history (1)

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2012-11/dlnl-ahc112912.php

[font face=Serif]Public release date: 29-Nov-2012

Contact: Anne Stark
[e-mail]
925-422-9799
DOE/Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

[font size=5]A human-caused climate change signal emerges from the noise[/font]

[font size=3]Livermore, Calif. -- By comparing simulations from 20 different computer models to satellite observations, Lawrence Livermore climate scientists and colleagues from 16 other organizations have found that tropospheric and stratospheric temperature changes are clearly related to human activities.

The team looked at geographical patterns of atmospheric temperature change over the period of satellite observations. The team's goal of the study was to determine whether previous findings of a "discernible human influence" on tropospheric and stratospheric temperature were sensitive to current uncertainties in climate models and satellite data.

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In both satellite observations and the computer model simulations of historical climate change, the lower stratosphere cools markedly over the past 33 years. This cooling is primarily a response to the human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone. The observations and model simulations also show a common pattern of large-scale warming of the lower troposphere, with largest warming over the Arctic, and muted warming (or even cooling) over Antarctica. Tropospheric warming is mainly driven by human-caused increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

"It's very unlikely that purely natural causes can explain these distinctive patterns of temperature change," said Laboratory atmospheric scientist Benjamin Santer, who is lead author of the paper appearing in the Nov. 29 online edition of the journal, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. "No known mode of natural climate variability can cause sustained, global-scale warming of the troposphere and cooling of the lower stratosphere."

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1210514109 (Doesn’t work yet.)
http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/11/28/1210514109 (Works.)

[patrice]

1. So, it's correct to say that "change" is the operative word, because heating in one place results

in cooling in other places?

There's a transference of energy? Heating causes more heating? which comes not solely from the sun, but ALSO from the transference of (kinetic?) energy from other molecules in the atmosphere????

Just trying to think about the idea of this thing being BOTH Global Warming & Global Cooling . . . .

[OKIsItJustMe]

2. “…heating in one place results in cooling in other places?”

No, that’s not quite it.

[font face=Serif][font size=3]… This cooling is primarily a response to the human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone. … Tropospheric warming is mainly driven by human-caused increases in well-mixed greenhouse gases.

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We’ve pumped some gases (especially CFC’s) into the atmosphere which have depleted the ozone layer, causing some cooling.

We’ve also pumped a bunch of greenhouse gases (especially CO[font size="1"]₂[/font]) into the atmosphere, which cause warming.

[patrice]

3. Thanks for clarifying that. Have been wondering for a while about that ozone hole, which it appears

that many of us have forgotten at this point.

Wondering how/if it figures into the "equation" & the answer is yes.

[OKIsItJustMe]

4. About the ozone hole

http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/

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[font size=4]Year-to-date[/font]

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[font size=4]Annual records[/font]


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