Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumDamaging Katrina-level storm surges are twice as likely in warm years
We expect that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger, since hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the ocean and converts it to wind energy. These stronger winds will be capable of piling up higher storm surges. However, it is controversial whether or not we have observed an increase in the strongest hurricanes, since hurricane winds are hard to observe. Our long-term hurricane data base is generally too low in quality and covers too short a period of time to make very good estimates of how climate change may be affecting hurricane winds.
However, a new 2012 paper, "Homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923" by Grinsted et al., looked at storm surge data from six tide gauges along the U.S. coast from Texas to New Jersey, and concluded that the number of moderately large hurricane and tropical storm surge events has increased since 1923. Moderately large storm surge events are on pace to nearly double by the year 2100, compared to 20th century levels. Moreover, 1-in-9 year to 1-in-30 year Katrina-level storm surge events are twice as likely to occur in warm years compared to cool years, and thus global warming may be able to dramatically increase the frequency of highly damaging extreme storm surge events.
Since sea level is steadily rising due to global warming, these future storm surges will also be riding in on top of an elevated ocean surface, and will thus be able to do even greater damage than in the past. Expect to see many more shocking storm surge damage photos in the coming decades, unless we wise up, retreat from areas highly vulnerable to storm surge, and invest in increased shoreline protection measures.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2300
Figure 2. Top: Observed long-term frequency of moderately large storm surge events from hurricanes and tropical storms measured at six tide gauges along the U.S. East Coast (inset map). The thick line is a 5-year moving average. These type of surge events occurred an average of 5.4 times/year between 1923 - 2008, and are on pace to increase to 9.5 events per year by 2100. Bottom: Departure of Earth's annual mean surface temperature from average, shaded to show warmer and colder than median temperatures. Large storm surge events increase in probability during warmer than average years. Image credit: Grinsted et al. 2012, "A homogeneous record of Atlantic hurricane surge threat since 1923."
dipsydoodle
(42,239 posts)the storm surge which hit NY City was 50% higher than it would have been solely due to the phase of the moon - the surge was c. 12 foot which would otherwise have been c. 8 foot. I'm not saying that 8 foot wasn't serious - just that it may have been more containable.
lalalu
(1,663 posts)just rain storms have caused massive flooding in New York and New Jersey. We were fortunate that Sandy downgraded a bit before landfall. A strong category 1 or 2 would be truly devastating.
Both states have been warned for years and keep developing on the coastal areas and destroying natural barriers. They just ignore the facts and those of us in the area who are concerned with the environment.
http://www.bu.edu/today/2012/lessons-from-hurricane-sandy/
Even now Christie has suspended environmental laws during rebuilding. This rebuilding in the same areas and ignoring science is a form of insanity.
lalalu
(1,663 posts)"The remains of a roller coaster that was knocked off a New Jersey amusement pier by Superstorm Sandy and partially submerged in the Atlantic Ocean might be left there as a tourist attraction."
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2012/11/23/nj-roller-coaster-tourist-attraction/1722013/
Yes, they want to turn these disasters into tourists attractions. Fortunately due to the uproar the mayor has changed his mind.
http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2012/1127/New-Jersey-s-submerged-roller-coaster-to-be-torn-down-not-made-a-tourist-attraction
In the meantime Governor Christie has suspended building regulations in the same areas. He started before Hurricane Sandy and is still continuing down that path even after the devastation
"Governor Christie weakened land use tools within the DEP that prevent sprawl in flood prone and wetland areas. His administration has rolled back the stormwater and flood hazard rules, removing key protections. "
http://pointpleasant.patch.com/blog_posts/rebuilding-after-hurricane-sandy-9dbcfafd
I say let them rebuild and keep getting washed away in a twisted version of Darwinism. Just don't give them insurance or let them use public funds.