"Historical Collapses" primer?
While I could spend some time using "the Google" I know there are people here who have studied this sort of thing already whose knowledge I'd like to tap. What I'm looking for are good examples of past civilizations whose unsustainable practices outstripped available resources and experienced a collapse.
What are some of the clearest and best-studied cases? I don't need extensive information; I mainly would like a list of a few striking instances that can be used to help define the surprisingly elusive concept of "sustainability" through the use of clear negative examples.
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The reason, is that during most of the last 4-6000 years (Roughly the time period we have at least some sort of written record, through writing was invented BEFORe 6000 years ago) it is cooling trends that tended to force nomadic people to move their herds south AND what had been farmland gets to cold for the type of farming being done.
Side note: The reason I use the above term, "the type of farming" is that during the Roman Empire you had Mediterranean type of farming throughout the Empire, In that type of farming, you do NOT need iron tools. Wooded plows are usable. With a actual winter with frozen ground, you start to need a heavy plow (or a iron spade) to do actual farm work. The ground is to hard to turn over with just wood. With a warming trend Mediterranean type farming can spread northward into areas that traditionally had been herding areas. With a cooling trend, the reverse happens, what had been farming areas gets to hard to be plowed by wooded tools, and thus converts to herding areas. In the "Dark Ages" Chinese iron making finally reached Europe. this permitted the introduction of iron at a cheap enough price that iron tools could be used for farming. The Heavy Iron Plow thus spread Westward from the Ukraine to Western Europe (The use of the Heavy Plow was tied in with the Slavic invasions of the late 500s and the 600s). It is the only time period where you had the retreat of one farming society (the Roman Empire 350-550 AD), replaced by a herding society (the various Germanic and Hunic Societies of the Invasion period of the Roman Empire), which in turn was replaced by another farming society (The Slavic iron based farming Society) WITHOUT a warming period taking place.
The Worse winter in the last 2000 years, the winter of 535-536 AD:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extreme_weather_events_of_535-536
The ROman Warm Period, 250 BC - 400 AD:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Warm_Period
http://www.nipccreport.org/archive/temperature/rwp.html
Dark Ages Cold Period: 400-950 AD:
http://www.co2science.org/subject/d/summaries/dacpeurope.php
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Kauffner/Europe_in_the_Dark_Ages
http://www.nipccreport.org/articles/2010/dec/15dec2010a4.html
In the above graph, temperatures peak about 1 AD, 975 AD and today, and bottoms out about 200-600 AD, but does NOT start to climb till after 800 AD, drops again about 900 AD (Magyars and Viking Invasions). Goes down again about 1100, but holds at a relatively high level till 1300, then bottoms out about 1450 and again 1700.
The last real attempt expansion of the Roman Empire, ended with the Death of Marcus Aurelius in 185 AD (He had attempted to conquer Germany between the Rhine and the Elbe, his son, his successor preferred to play Emperor in Rome then lead the Army in Germany).
The Third Century (201-300 AD) saw the near collapse of the Roman Empire. The Destruction of the Pathanian Empire (and its replacement by the Sassanian Empire in 224 AD). By the end of the Third Century, stability had returned (as the temperature stabilized). Thus you saw the birth of what some call the "Second Roman Empire" and other call the Dominate. The later indicated the change from the Emperor being the first among equals (that was the theory, but not the fact during the Early Empire) to being the clear superior to all (through more the leader of Roman Citizens then a true absolute Ruler). This change is also typical of a society where the leadership in losing power. If you hold true power, you do NOT need to show the world you have that power, thus Augustus just worn a the Rope of the First Senator of the old Roman Republic, he did NOT have to show how strong he was, for his rule was unchallengeable. Under Diocletian, the first empire under the Dominate, he adopted all of the robes and symbols of an absolute Monarch, the reason was simple, his hold on the position of Emperor was weak and thus had show anyone he was strong when he was not.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dominate
Anyway, under the Dominate (300-450 in the West, 300-620 in the East) Temperatures stayed stable, but lower then they had been in 1 AD. Thus when Rome was threatened in 405 AD, Rome pulled troops out of Britain, and unlike the rest of the Roman Empire in the West made no effort to return after 405 AD. No Serious invasions occurred during the 300s, except for the revolt of the Goths (Which had more to do with Roman Greed then a general collapse. By 395 even the Goths were peaceful within the Empire.
The Goths would revolt again in 410, but again seems to involve the greed of the Romans more then a climate change, but right afterward you see a massive reduction in temperatures, so that various tribes invade Rome (and you had massive Peasant revolts within the Empire). This bottoms out about 525, as Justinian takes over the Eastern Empire and tries to reconquer the Western Empire (taking back North Africa, Italy and Southern Spain). The mid to late 500s the temperature is going up, the barbarian invasions lessen. The Lombards invade Italy in 576 AD and the Goths retake most of Spain, but that is all (And both the invasions seems tied in with politics within Spain and Italy).
The Lombards invasion of Italy is during a warming trend but that ends about 600 AD, in time for the next three invasions. The First being the Sassanian invasion of the Eastern Roman Empire, its success for about 15 years, and then its defeat, followed less then a generation later by the Arab Conquest, which takes over Egypt and Persian and later on North Africa and Spain. At the same time, the Slavs are moving throughout Eastern Europe and into the Balkans (moving as far south as modern Greece). One Slavic tribe reached present day England. The Germans were push West, so that by 700 the Germans were West of the Elbe, East of the Elbe was Slavic. This invasion was so powerful, that when the Byzantine Empire finally defeated the last Arab attack on Constantinople, the Byzantine Empire attacked the invading Slavs rather then the retreating Arabs (please note these attacks was after 700 AD, as the temperatures again bottomed out and temperatures started to raise).
Temperatures raised gradually to 800 (when Charlemagne re-established, in theory, the Western Empire) and then rapidly till 850 then you saw another drop in temperatures, bottoming out again about 900. This correspond with the Viking Invasions and the Magyars invasions.
Magyars invasion of present day Hungary, 896-955 AD:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hungarian_invasions_of_Europe
This was roughly the same period of the height of Viking Raiding:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viking#Viking_expansion
Please note, others have proposed this, I am just repeating what others had pointed out, during periods of temperatures drops, unrest occur and people attack other groups over resources. Also remember Marx's observation, as things go from bad to worse, revolts do NOT occur, people are to worried about where they next meal is coming from to plan anything drastic, like a revolt or an invasion. On the other hand, as things bottoms out, and things start to improve, then you have revolutions and other military actions.
In 1787, France had its worse famine, no revolt in 1787, but as things improved you had the revolution of 1789. In the 1842-1847 period, you had another famine throughout much of Europe, followed by the Revolution of 1848. In the 1830s you had the Potato Famine, and the mass immigration to the US (and the start of the 19th century anti-British attitude of the Irish, an attitude that had almost died out prior to the 1830s, but with the Famine would remain till after the "Troubles" of the 1920s and in some regards the "Troubles" of the 1970s).
The Russian revolution of 1917, was proceeded by the massive defeats of 1916 and the huge food storages of 1916, which were being relieved by the time of the Spring Revolution of 1917 and been resolved by the time of the Communist Revolution in the fall of 1917 (more by the raise of the Soviets, which were run by the Social Democrats of Russia NOT the people who ruled from spring to fall nor the communists under Lenin).
Germany, France, Britain (and even the US) had massive strikes in the period 1918-1920, as the strain of war increased AND the realization that if you went on strike the bosses could do little to you, for any possible replacement workers were on the front lines. Again, things bottomed out a year of two before the Wave of Strikes, then as things improved, but conditions did not, people went on strike.
While Karl Marx is NOT liked in the US (and in any paper I would avoid mentioning his name if possible) his observations about when Revolutions occur is dead on, and followed by the CIA to this day.
My point is look at temperature drops and bad times (something Marx did not write about and an error you have to consider when reading his books, along with his failure to tie in Energy use with improved standard of living, another error in his writing, but if you remember it is an error and treat it as such, reading Marx can give you an idea of what is going on in the world). Drop in Temperatures can cause widespread chaos, the question in the future is what changes will increase temperatures cause?
Most of our records are from Europe, an area affected more by and decrease in temperatures then any increase in temperatures. Africa, the Caribbean, India, Southeast Asia and China are all areas affected more by temperatures increases then temper tues deceases. Will African get HOTTER so that the Monsoon reaches Libya? This is believe to have happened 10,000 years ago, and then Africa cooled down, so the Monsoon did NOT come as far North, turning North African from Savanna into Desert (as late as the Roman Empire, horses were still used on the Carthage to Timbuktu run, the main transportation route from West Africa to the Mediterranean Sea, Rome was the first to use Camels, but it now appears it was the Arabs after the Arab Conquest where the Camel made it to wide spread use in North Africa).
More on the North African Humid Period:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_African_climate_cycles
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic_Subpluvial
Will increase Hurricanes cause massive movement of people in the Caribbean? Will such Typhoons due untold damage to Southeast Asia and China? Questions that needs to be asked. If the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) should collapse, and raise world wide seal levels 20 feet in less then a month, where will people on low lying areas move to (Bangladesh is the worse case scenario, where will its people go?).
Netherlands and Bangladesh sea level raise problems:
http://germanwatch.org/download/klak/fb-ms-e.pdf
Remember, in the past Cold Weather periods forced people to move south, in the future Warm Weather may force people to move. The key is food and where to get it.
