Arctic Emergency and the Three Climate Change Camps...

[Junkdrawer]

In rough terms, I think there are three main camps re the Climate Change Issue:

1.) Denialists - Man made climate change is a myth created by academics looking for research grants etc. etc.

2.) Gradualists - Man made climate change is real, but is very, very small compared to normal weather/climate variations. Worst effects won't be felt for 50 to 100 years, although you may see a slight uptick in extreme events.

3.) Tipping Pointers - Man made climate change is real and there are many tipping points out there that could turn climate change into a full blown climate emergency with little warning.

The prescription for climate change is very different for the three camps.

1.) Denialists - Drill baby, drill.

2.) Gradualists - Modest lifestyle changes. Gradual changeover to more sustainable technologies.

3.) Tipping Pointers - Radical lifestyle changes. Immediate changeover to sustainable technologies. Geoengineering if all else fails.

Obviously there are people who sit between the camps and folks outside of the discussion. For example, I'm a 2.75 guy. The media remains, I'd say, 1.0 (Fox News) to 1.75 (NPR) to 2.1 (MSNBC).

So, here's the problem: When a huge tipping point does happen (like the current meltout of the Arctic) 99.9% of the media have no way of coping with it, SO THEY IGNORE IT. And how do you get people (in what is supposed to be a democracy) to cope with reality if massively important events ARE NOT REPORTED?

[lapfog_1]

1. you need another level

4.0 We are all f*&ked and the dolphins are about to be transported to the mother ship saying "So long and thanks for all the fish"

I'm a 3.8 person.

But then I worked with the climate scientists at NASA for about 4 years (out of my 10 year career there)

[Junkdrawer]

2. And level 4's prescription is what?

I've tried "crawling into my asshole and waiting to die."

Pure.Pain.

[GliderGuider]

4. I tried that too, with the same results you had.

The despair is terrifyingly painful, to a degree that almost made me decide to leave about five years ago.

The response to that despair requires a dedication to radical change. the change can be either in what one does with their life (outer change) or who one is as as a person (inner change), or a combination of both, which is what I see most people who are at level 3+ doing.

[AverageJoe90]

12. Not sure I'm seeing that with too many 3s.....

If anything, it seems that many 2s and 2.5s are indeed willing to make necessary changes whenever possible, and needed. Many 3s I've come across are just sitting on their asses proclaiming gloom & doom, and screaming about humanity's extinction, etc., while not actually doing anything to help save us.
I would believe that many climate scientists are somewhere in between the 2.2-2.75 range. I personally, would likely score around 2.2-2.4.

[lapfog_1]

5. I don't know

but climate change is happening faster than even the most dire predictions...

The various tipping points are triggering now ( permafrost, deep sea methane clathrate, loss of sea ice changing the polar albedo, increasing acidity levels in the oceans).

We are already experiencing the effects of climate change with more violent storms, drought in some areas, flooding in others, etc.

Food supplies are going to change and become scarce in some years, farmers aren't going to be able to predict even one season ahead and therefore won't know what to plant.

We may be looking at a global "Easter Island" event.

rapid adaptation (now the new call since many have given up on stopping it) is more than a bit dicey to work. Doing so while sustaining 7 to 8 billion people is probably not possible.

Sorry, I just don't believe we have any chance of convincing people to do what is needed right now to avoid the worst of the this.

[Junkdrawer]

6. As repulsive as the idea is....

Time to start looking at Geoengineering...

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2012/05/14/120514fa_fact_specter?currentPage=all

I'm thinking a three part plan:

1.) Massive consolidation of climate models on the scale of, say, the GFS et al weather models

2.) Solar radiation management as the emergency quick fix

3.) Carbon sequestration (re-fossilization??) as the longterm fix.

Needless to say, current fossil fuels should be HEAVILY taxed.

[AverageJoe90]

13. Not quite the most dire predictions.

I don't think you've seen REAL dire predictions. I have, and most of them are bullshit.

On the other hand, things are indeed changing faster than many of the more optimistic & average models said we would.

[lapfog_1]

17. I wasn't counting this prediction...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Day_After_Tomorrow

so yeah, if you count that as a serious "dire prediction"

[GliderGuider]

3. Maybe Level 3 could be split into two:

3.1 - The tipping point is still in the future. This is the one in the OP - the prescription is to promote radical lifestyle changes.

3.2 - The tipping point has arrived, or is in the past. For people of this persuasion (of which I am one) the prescriptions are about adaptations, in both personal physical circumstances and inner attitude.

I'm heavy on the attitude adaptation side of the coin. I've adopted a position I call "Buddhist realism" which involves fully accepting the changes exactly as they are, and not clinging to the notion that I should change the outcome - whatever it turns out to be.

[RobertEarl]

7. Whatever

There is nothing we can do about it. CC is so huge, heck, it is worldwide, that the process will go at its own pace no matter what we do.

Really all this is crying over spilled milk. Water under the bridge.

Coupled with the un-naturalness of the worldwide occurrence is the inertia of the humans who brought this about. So it is insurmountable. Omnipotent.

Shoot, i don't even find it worth my time to argue the fine points of what is changing on the planet. It is and will be.

Now, nukes otoh.... <grin>

[AverageJoe90]

14. Sorry, Bob, but......

Not only is this kind of attitude NOT helping, and never has, but this is actually playing into the hands of the deniers and their idols/paymasters/etc.

[RobertEarl]

16. Hey Joe

Welcome to the nightmare.

12 years ago i first read this book by Bill McKibben
"End of Nature"

For over 12 years i have been arguing with the putzes about the end of the natural world. The last thing i need is someone like you telling me what is and isn't a help.

Newsflash: we are doomed to experiencing global warming. Another flash: it is going to happen quicker and is going to be worse than the scientists are telling you.

In other words.... it is too late to stop it. If we halted producing all excess co2 today (like that's gonna happen) the globe would still be warming for at least 30 years.

Sorry to have to be the one to tell you this.

If you are like me you are in tears right now like i was 12 years ago.

[AverageJoe90]

18. I don't doubt we're sure to experience more and more warming.

But it's not too late, NEVER too late, to do something about it, and help avoid the worst possible effects. If we resign ourselves now, just when we're finally starting to make some REAL progress, then our enemies will have won for sure.

I'm very concerned about the state of Earth's environment, btw. I know that hundreds of millions could possibly die of famine, not just in Africa or in East Asia, but across the world. I realize that some changes may not be reversible by our efforts. I realize that many species will likely go extinct by the end of this century. And I certainly realize that weather extremes of all kinds are going to get more and more common, at least as far as the near future is concerned, as time wears on.

I'm not exactly optimistic about the future and frankly, things are going to get worse. I know that all too well.

But now's not the time to give up. We have to keep going....our future depends on it, more than ever.

[Junkdrawer]

10. Thank you lapfog for bringing up this point.

The more I think about it, the more I realize that no one goes from 2 to 3 without at least a visit to 4.

Hello Darkness, my old friend. I've come to talk with you again.

[AverageJoe90]

15. I never did visit 4.

And frankly, I'm glad. 4 is for those whose paranoia will play straight into the hands of the deniers. Not only that but it already has.....to the great detriment of our civilization.

[truebrit71]

11. I'm about the same as you...3.8

..i believe we are fucked beyond our wildest imaginations...the scale and speed of the changes are going to be breath-taking to behold...

[pscot]

8. Mylar

One-hundred-and ninety-seven million square miles of mylar.

[AverageJoe90]

9. I try to be realistic about things, as they are.

So I'm definitely somewhere around 2.2-2.4.

Earth isn't going to become Venus II nor is humanity going to go extinct. But we already face serious problems and if we don't take significant action, things will only get that much worse for us.