behold: ice cover August 4th, 2012 vs 2007

[phantom power]

[Scuba]

1. A little expert analysis would be useful.

[phantom power]

2. I'll give you my non-expert analysis

2012 is on the left. I'll bet a non-expert case of beer that anything not colored purple will be gone by mid September. And by beer, I mean some Double Oaked Bastard, or anything equally unhealthy. And by "bet" I mean I promise to drink it all.

[alfredo]

3. The bar on the left will give some info.

[emmadoggy]

9. I'm not an expert, but here's what I know: 2007 set the record for lowest ice extent.

The purples and pinks are thicker, more solid ice. The reds, greens, yellows are thinner, slushier ice and ice that is most likely going to be gone or nearly gone by mid-September when the re-freeze typically begins. Which means that it is highly likely that we are going to be smashing the record low from 2007 - at least to my eyes. I have never seen such a small area of purple/pink before.

The less thick, old ice we have in the arctic, the easier the ice melts the next summer. The more the ice melts, the more dark water we have to absorb more of the sun's heat, thus melting even more ice and warming the earth even more.

[XemaSab]

10. Slight correction:

The color doesn't have to do with thickness but rather the amount of solid ice versus open water.

You could have ice ten feet thick that has a puddle on it and it would read as open water. Some of the lighter purple and red within the main pack is probably solid ice with some surface melting. However, most of the red areas towards the top and right of the image are just loose floes.

[emmadoggy]

12. Thanks for the clarification.

I didn't explain it very well. As I said, I'm no expert. The E/E forum has been the extent of my education on this stuff - and I have learned a LOT, but most of the technical, science-y stuff is way over my head. I do my best to make sense of it all, lol.

[XemaSab]

14. Any time

[truebrit71]

4. So, if my 100% amateur eyes are right...

It is slightly larger in area, but much thinner in 2012 than 2007, yes? It also appears that there is clear water from Alaska all the way to Nova Scotia...

[phantom power]

5. My reading of the map is that about 2/3 of the ice is 60% coverage or less

[XemaSab]

7. There's a huge storm right now

but if you click the grey areas between the cloud bands and select "250m" for pixel size you can see that most of the area that isn't purple is just chunks of briny slush. There's still some solid ice, but it's weaker and thinner than it was in 2007.

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?mosaic=Arctic.2012217.terra.4km

(The storm up there is predicted to wreak real havoc on the remaining ice. The next few days could be brutal.)

[phantom power]

8. I think we are going to see Something New this year

[joshcryer]

15. Yeah, when the storm is over, the scientific community is going to be agape.

They simply will not know how to relate the magnitude of this event to the public at large.

I hope the media picks it up.

[GliderGuider]

17. I went to a presentation by a Canadian ice scientist about this time in 2007

He'd just gotten back from an Arctic trip on the icebreaker Amundsen. His eyed were bugged out and his hair was on fire. He used the word "unprecedented" about 8 times in the 45 minute talk. I'd love to talk to him again at the end of September this year! The rest of this week is going to be um interesting.

[XemaSab]

19. oh yes

oh yes

[emmadoggy]

6. I've been watching and it is crazy scary this year.

I have never seen such a small patch of pink/purple. And after reading this thread: http://www.democraticunderground.com/112721316
it sounds like most of that slush is toast and then some.

An ice free arctic is coming very rapidly.

[XemaSab]

11. Day 216

In 1980, 1982, 1983, 1986, and 1996, the ice on this day was about 6.5 million square kilometers.

2006: 4.8941
2007: 3.98794
2008: 4.32312
2009: 4.55299
2010: 4.21931
2011: 3.94001
2012: 3.55623

Even though the lines on CT look really close together, we're almost half a million square kilometers lower than we've ever been before and the weather prediction is for serious melting and dispersal this week.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

[emmadoggy]

13. Yikes. nt

[joshcryer]

16. Insane.

[truebrit71]

21. Wait?? Half a MILLION lower??

Wow...when I told folks we would see ice-free summers THIS decade I was thinking post-2015....not possibly THIS year....WOW....

[XemaSab]

22. The projection is 2014/2015

[truebrit71]

23. Remember when they said that wouldn't happen until 2035-2050?

Man oh man are we on a different schedule now...

[joshcryer]

24. 2013 is the earliest I was thinking.

:O

[Systematic Chaos]

18. Watching this happen is starting to make me physically sick, but I can't stop.

Holy shit but we're so screwed.

[Odin2005]

20. All that red is where the ice has disintergrated into slush.

Jesus Christ Almighty.