Possible energy trends to 2020

[GliderGuider]

Last edited Fri Jul 13, 2012, 05:22 PM - Edit history (1)

I thought I'd take a look at what the energy trends of the last 11 years might portend for the next 8 years.

As usual, data is from the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2012, and the trend lines are my usual brain-dead polynomials.

Also as usual, there are no guarantees. The world might wake up tomorrow and implement a Manhattan Project for renewables, and/or put a huge tax on carbon that would change the picture overnight. Absent such changes of heart, and within the limits of reason, recent trends are a good place to start looking for near-future trends.



A few interesting observations fall out of this exercise:

• Renewables are on a very fine growth path, almost quadrupling from 2011 to 2020.
  
• Nuclear power may be about to start declining.
  
• The effect of peak oil may become significant in the next 5 years.
  
• Coal will remain the gorilla in the living room.
  
• Fossil fuel use (and CO2 emissions) could increase by 10% in the next 8 years.
  
• GHG-free sources could supply over 16% of the world's primary energy, up from 13% in 2011.

[RobertEarl]

1. Another trend possible

All the western world - Us - could reduce energy consumption by 50%. We are the energy hogs and we have caused climate change and there ain't but one way out of the mess we caused.

Will we, or won't we?

[GliderGuider]

2. Will we, or won't we?

What do you think?