(Japan nuclear) Kansai power crunch just political rivalry?

[kristopher]

This is basically a reflection of the opinion held by many that the government and the utilities are intent on coercion to restart nuclear with threats of power shortages that are manufactured rather than required.

Kansai power crunch just political rivalry?
Oi reactor factor tied to Noda's Hashimoto feud
By ERIC JOHNSTON
Staff writer

OSAKA — The confrontation between the central government and Kansai area leaders over the restart of two nuclear reactors in Oi, Fukui Prefecture, has more to do with the growing power struggle between Osaka Mayor Toru Hashimoto and Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda than with safety or objective attempts to determine how much electricity will be available this summer.

Since February, Kansai Electric Power Co. has revised downward its projected electricity shortages after being grilled by Hashimoto-appointed critics.

On Tuesday, Kepco said that while it currently stands by its projection of a 15 percent shortage, a combination of purchasing electricity from other suppliers, ramping up natural energy use and instituting curbs on power use might actually shrink the projected shortage to 5 percent.

Meanwhile, the governors of Kyoto and Shiga as well as Hashimoto are critical of the way Noda's administration is pushing for the Oi reactors' restart without addressing their detailed safety concerns.

They are also angry the administration and Kepco announced blackout preparations without first consulting independent outside experts who ...

[longship]

1. The way I understand it

Japan has two incompatible power systems. I don't know the specifics, but it was widely reported by NHK (Japanese network) in the weeks following the earthquake/tsunami. I have MHz Worldview on one of my local PBS stations and they run a lot of NHK, and we're running even more during the crisis. The reportage was pretty damned good. They were calling out the government and Tepco throughout.

They talked about the fact that northern prefectures had different power, or something. That was part of the problem with the severe power shortages immediately after the disaster. Unfortunately, there were no details and I did not follow up on it.

You might want to fact check it.

[kristopher]

2. Yes that is a factor.

The northeastern half of the country is 60HZ and the SW half is 50HZ. So when the NE region lost so much of its generation, the only route to transmit power in ran through a relatively low capacity link equipped to handle the transition.

That isn't what is at issue here, however. This is power politics and economics in play. The country has been in the doldrums since about 1990 and they can't seem to pull themselves out of it. They had a party (the LDP) which held power for 50 years after WW2 and threw them out for the one that is in there now. That party (LDP) built the country into what it is and had roots deep into a very professional and powerful bureaucracy (which actually creates most nation policy) - including the nuclear industry.

The LDP has been acting just like the Republicans here in that they have been placing party above country, acting to disrupt any positive progress by the now ruling party hoping to make people miserable enough to turn back to the 'good old days' when the LDP was on top.

There is a new force, however, that looks set to make major inroads into the national political scene. This group has no ties to the bureaucracy and is riding the wave of general popular discontent. They are also becoming a voice for the very large antinuclear majority.

The government still has a majority that wants to restart their nuclear program and go back to business as usual. They do not want change; a position wholeheartedly pushed by the utilities.

That new force I spoke of, (along with former Prime Minister Kan, the man in power when Fukushima melted down) are making the charge that the government is colluding with the utilities to understate power supply by not counting all of the distributed power plants used by industry - a charge that is almost certainly true.

That is what the OP is discussing. Obscure politics in a place halfway around the world, but it has the potential to impact the global direction of our energy supply so I think it is important.

[longship]

3. TEPCO is in trouble as far as I can see

They tried to sweep things under the rug about Fukashima, which in turn brought down the government. One thing I've noticed is that I haven't seen much about Fukashima since the new government came into power.

Not saying that means anything, but there has been a lot of alarmist posts here at DU recently about Fukashima daiichi 4. Yet I see zippo about it on NHK. Methinks people are reacting to Intertube conspiracy nonsense. Not saying that's true either, but the Japanese have a very orderly society and they are not likely to put the whole fucking nation in danger by not keeping the spent pool cooled in #4.

Plus, everybody now has radiation meters including both Japanese and foreign press. If the dangers were as the conspiracy over reactors say, the press would be reporting it. They're not.

Nota bene: I'm not saying Fukashima is safe. I just think some people are over reacting to rumor.

[RobertEarl]

4. Over reacting?

How so? Should be real easy to detail what it is you think is an over reaction.

[FBaggins]

5. Is it your position that they actually have enough power to meet their needs?

That they really don't expect shortages but are using dishonest claims about their liklihood in order to influence public opinion?

[kristopher]

6. Don't you get tired of straw man arguments?

I'm describing a conflict that is going on in Japan, it isn't about me.

The problem centers on misleading numbers that were used about available supply last summer and winter. In both cases it was shown that the government bureaucrats in METI had, in conjunction with the utilities in the NW (TEPCO mainly), significantly undercounted resources available.

Now that KEPCO has lost all of its reactors, it looks like they are doing the same thing. Critics are saying that the 15% shortage number is exaggerated and that the actual shortfall is closer to 5% (IIRC), an amount that could be made up far more easily with conservation and new renewables than the 15% claimed.

[FBaggins]

7. How on earth is that a strawman?

The title of your thread asks whether the supposed "crunch" is just a political rivalry... and then your explanation of the piece clearly says that some are of the opinion that they are using coercion and the threats of power shortages which are "manufactured" rather than unavoidable.

I'm asking whether you agree with that opinion. Is there an actual non-trivial gap in the region's ability to generate power this summer or is it contrived?

The problem centers on misleading numbers that were used about available supply last summer and winter. In both cases it was shown that the government bureaucrats in METI had, in conjunction with the utilities in the NW (TEPCO mainly), significantly undercounted resources available.

They had significant power issues last summer and they have considerably less generation capacity now than they had then. Nothing about "misleading numbers" changes that simple fact.

Critics are saying that the 15% shortage number is exaggerated and that the actual shortfall is closer to 5%

Based on what? Different actual supply/demand figures or different assumptions about weather?

an amount that could be made up far more easily with conservation and new renewables than the 15% claimed.

See above. You surely agree that there were significant demand-side adjustments made last summer, right? And how many reactors have been shut down since then compared to new generation installed?

And new renewables? Hey... I know that you believe that renewables are quicker to install than other options... but we're getting close to June already. It's too late to add much to the summer supply.