Fatih Birol - We Have Six Months To Get It Right: Return To BAU Means Never Hitting Climate Goals

[hatrack]

The world has only six months in which to change the course of the climate crisis and prevent a post-lockdown rebound in greenhouse gas emissions that would overwhelm efforts to stave off climate catastrophe, one of the world’s foremost energy experts has warned. “This year is the last time we have, if we are not to see a carbon rebound,” said Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency.

Governments are planning to spend $9tn (£7.2tn) globally in the next few months on rescuing their economies from the coronavirus crisis, the IEA has calculated. The stimulus packages created this year will determine the shape of the global economy for the next three years, according to Birol, and within that time emissions must start to fall sharply and permanently, or climate targets will be out of reach.

“The next three years will determine the course of the next 30 years and beyond,” Birol told the Guardian. “If we do not [take action] we will surely see a rebound in emissions. If emissions rebound, it is very difficult to see how they will be brought down in future. This is why we are urging governments to have sustainable recovery packages.”

Carbon dioxide emissions plunged by a global average of 17% in April, compared with last year, but have since surged again to within about 5% of last year’s levels. In a report published on Thursday, the IEA – the world’s gold standard for energy analysis - set out the first global blueprint for a green recovery, focusing on reforms to energy generation and consumption. Wind and solar power should be a top focus, the report advised, alongside energy efficiency improvements to buildings and industries, and the modernisation of electricity grids.

EDIT

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jun/18/world-has-six-months-to-avert-climate-crisis-says-energy-expert

[Binkie The Clown]

1. I'm no expert, but I've been following this for a long time and...

... my personal opinion is that's it already too late. Enough glaciers are already in irreversible collapse, and enough tipping points have already been passed that we will never (at least not in human lifespan terms) return to "normal" weather.

I'm not predicting the total collapse of civilization like some, but I do believe we are headed for a pretty significant loss to the kind of prosperity we've grown accustomed to. "Real" poverty, the kind of poverty we see in the third world garbage dumps, not the kind of poverty we see in rural America where a poor family can only afford one pickup truck, will spread until it covers the entire planet. We will go from some percentage of "food insecurity" to widespread downright starvation. "Civilization" will survive, but in smaller and smaller enclaves of the privileged few.

[Calculating]

2. Think something like judge dredd or elysion

The 1% will be living in luxury orbital resorts, or some kind of underground bunkers/island resorts which are heavily fortified to keep all the poor out. The remaining 99% of the population will be stuck living in ruined overcrowded nightmare conditions struggling to survive until the elites send out the murderbots to 'thin the herd'.

As for climate change, yeah, it's way too late. We needed to get serious on the issue 40 years ago, now all we can do is deal with the effects as well as we can. Trying to fight climate change now is like spitting on a wildfire.