Don't Expect A "New Normal" - Expect Unprecedented, Disastrous And Lethal Climate Events
At an intense level of combined heat and humidity—a “wet bulb” reading of 35 degrees Celsius, hotter and more humid than humans have ever experienced—the air will become so muggy that people can’t sweat and their organs begin to shut down. A healthy person sitting outside could eventually overheat and die, even if they’re resting in the shade. And by 2030, there’s a chance that this type of deadly heat wave could hit regions in India where as many as 200 million people live.
A new report from McKinsey Global Institute looks at the risk of extreme heat in India along with eight other case studies of the potential physical risks of climate change over the next three decades, from the future of the food supply in Africa to the economic impact of rising sea levels and devalued houses in Florida. “Our contribution here is really taking the science and translating that to impact for individuals, for companies, for countries,” says Mekala Krishnan, one of the co-authors of the report and a senior fellow at McKinsey. The report also presents a framework that people can use to think about a type of risk that we’ve never experienced before: For more than 10,000 years, and the entire history of human civilization, the climate has been relatively stable. Now it is not.
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The specific case studies help make the risks more tangible. In the case of India, the researchers looked at how extreme heat and humidity could affect work; in an economy with a heavy reliance on outdoor labor, productivity outside could drop 15% by 2030 because it’s too hot to work for part of each day. (By 2050, as many as 30% of all daylight hours could be too hot for work.)
They also looked at “livability,” or the risk of killer “wet bulb” temperatures that pass the threshold for human survivability. In some areas, there will be roughly a 5% annual chance of lethal heat waves by 2030, which might sound small, but means that over the decade, someone in the area has a 40% probability of experiencing this type of heat. “Today, there’s nowhere on Earth that experiences those conditions,” says Pinner. The majority of the people in the affected part of India won’t own air conditioners. Some parts of India are taking steps to adapt, including building cooling shelters and creating early warning systems. But the changes will likely have to go further, and the country will also need to adapt to other challenges, including water shortages. In the rest of the world, everyone else will also need to prepare for the specific risks they face, incorporating the impacts of climate change into the decisions they make now as they also take steps to cut emissions.
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https://www.fastcompany.com/90452018/climate-change-wont-result-in-a-new-normal-but-in-constant-horrifying-new-disasters
