Climate change: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months

[nitpicker]

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-48964736

Climate change: 12 years to save the planet? Make that 18 months

Matt McGrath
Environment correspondent
24 July 2019

Do you remember the good old days when we had "12 years to save the planet"? Now it seems, there's a growing consensus that the next 18 months will be critical in dealing with the global heating crisis, among other environmental challenges.

Last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that to keep the rise in global temperatures below 1.5C this century, emissions of carbon dioxide would have to be cut by 45% by 2030. But today, observers recognise that the decisive, political steps to enable the cuts in carbon to take place will have to happen before the end of next year.

The idea that 2020 is a firm deadline was eloquently addressed by one of the world's top climate scientists, speaking back in 2017. The climate math is brutally clear: While the world can't be healed within the next few years, it may be fatally wounded by negligence until 2020," said Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founder and now director emeritus of the Potsdam Climate Institute.

The sense that the end of next year is the last chance saloon for climate change is becoming clearer all the time.

"I am firmly of the view that the next 18 months will decide our ability to keep climate change to survivable levels and to restore nature to the equilibrium we need for our survival," said Prince Charles, speaking at a reception for Commonwealth foreign ministers recently.

So why are the next 18 months so critical? The Prince was looking ahead to a series of critical UN meetings that are due to take place between now and the end of 2020.

Ever since a global climate agreement was signed in Paris in December 2015, negotiators have been consumed with arguing about the rulebook for the pact. But under the terms of the deal, countries have also promised to improve their carbon-cutting plans by the end of next year.

One of the understated headlines in last year's IPCC report was that global emissions of carbon dioxide must peak by 2020 to keep the planet below 1.5C. Current plans are nowhere near strong enough to keep temperatures below the so-called safe limit. Right now, we are heading towards 3C of heating by 2100 not 1.5.

As countries usually scope out their plans over five and 10 year timeframes, if the 45% carbon cut target by 2030 is to be met, then the plans really need to be on the table by the end of 2020.

[beachbum bob]

1. really? Unfortuantely global warming is now feeding itself and stopping human contribution 100% will

have zero effect in "stopping" and "saving" the planet. May slow down the inevitable, but its all out of control now

[Locrian]

2. yep

my retirement planning now pretty much consists of where and how do I **survive** for whatever years I/we have left.

[Calculating]

4. Yeah, the positive feedback cycles are already engaging

..

[delisen]

3. This will mean climate change action will be campaign issue

News regarding climate change, including urgency and strategy, as well as recent actions, initiatives, and science seems to have increased greatly in US this year.

By September I expect a lot of emotion to attach to the topic along with various publics visibly moving climate change action way up in priority.

The section of our population that is prone to panic-fall apart or get belligerant in crises can easily intensify the drive to choose strongman/dictatorial leadership.

It is going to be up to Democrats to demonstrate strength, wisdom, resolve, competence, and ability to work with other countries to preserve human rights and save both democracy and the planet (yes it is a daunting task).

We know who is not able to achieve this. We don't yet know who the persons are who are best able to achieve.

One of the worst things we can do is look for a savior/leader-It is going to take many thousands of people with "the right stuff."

[Duppers]

5. Cannot be stressed enough

But we are lacking social awareness and political will for action.

[FiveGoodMen]

6. At the rate things are going, I don't expect to see any action taken for many years

Until it's far too late.

[Mountain Mule]

7. I'm afraid that we have screwed the pooch (never mind all the rest of life on the planet)

CO2 levels have continued to climb as we burn through fossil fuels and practice fossil fuel agriculture with greater abandon by the day, week, and year. Today we are at 415 ppm CO2 - a level the earth last experienced roughly 3 million years ago when the PETM extinction event occurred. Even if we stopped burning all fossil fuels right this minute, too many positive feedback loops have been triggered, and the planet will continue to warm.

Keep in mind also that the IPCC's predictions have been extremely conservative which makes people think we have time when actually we don't. The earth's atmosphere is headed for 3C of heating by 2030 - 70 years sooner than most would care to believe.