NOAA Spring Flooding Outlook Getting Steadily Worse
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More than 120 stations across the Midwest had their wettest year on record in 2018 (see PDF), and both January and February have been largely wet months as well. One to two feet of snow now blankets much of eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Soil moisture is close to record-high levels due to several early-winter melts prior to the recent cold, snowy conditions. With a week still left in the month, this is already the snowiest February on record from Minnesota to Wisconsin, according to the NWS North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC). Saturday’s storm will produce widespread blizzard conditions from the central Plains to the Midwest, along with as much as 4-8” of snow over parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.
NOAA’s initial outlooks for spring flooding along the Upper Mississippi, issued on Thursday, are quite concerning. “The outlook for March suggests colder than normal temperatures across the entire NCRFC area,” noted the NCRFC. “This suggests we may have additional snowfall accumulation, and a delay in warming to allow for melting. If this does occur, it increases the likelihood for a rapid melt scenario once the warmer temperatures arrive later this spring.”
NCRFC is calling for an above- to well-above-normal flood threat along the Upper Mississippi, depending largely on how the next couple of months unfold in terms of temperatures and snowpack. Further south, along the Mid- and Lower Mississippi, the spring flood threat will hinge not only on conditions upstream but also on how much additional rain falls across the region. Unfortunately, the latest seasonal outlook from NOAA calls for higher-than-average odds of a wet spring across the southern half of the nation. The weak El NIño event now in place favors wetter-than-usual conditions in this area.
Figure 4. Precipitation outlook for March through May 2019, issued on Thursday, February 21, 2019. Areas marked “EC” have equal odds of above-, below-, or near-average precipitation. Areas in green show where the odds are shifted in favor of a wet spring. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/CPC.
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https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Flooding-Rains-Severe-Storms-Record-Snows-and-Typhoon?cm_ven=cat6-widget
