Immediate fossil fuel phaseout could arrest climate change - study

[Eugene]

Source: The Guardian

Immediate fossil fuel phaseout could arrest climate change – study

Scientists say it may still technically be possible to limit warming to 1.5C if drastic action is taken now

Damian Carrington Environment editor
Tue 15 Jan 2019 16.00 GMT

Climate change could be kept in check if a phaseout of all fossil fuel infrastructure were to begin immediately, according to research.

It shows that meeting the internationally agreed aspiration of keeping global warming to less than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels is still possible. The scientists say it is therefore the choices being made by global society, not physics, which is the obstacle to meeting the goal.

The study found that if all fossil fuel infrastructure – power plants, factories, vehicles, ships and planes – from now on are replaced by zero-carbon alternatives at the end of their useful lives, there is a 64% chance of staying under 1.5C.

-snip-

The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, used computer models to estimate by how much global temperatures would rise if a fossil fuel infrastructure phaseout began immediately. The lifespan for power plants was set at 40 years, cars an average of 15 years and planes 26 years. The work also assumes a rapid end to beef and dairy consumption, which is responsible for significant global emissions.

-snip-

The scientists accept their scenario is at the extreme end of ambition, but said it was important to know that meeting the 1.5C target was still physically possible and dependent on the choices made now and in the coming years. “The climate system is not stopping you [hitting the target], global society is stopping you,” Smith said.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/immediate-fossil-fuel-phaseout-could-arrest-climate-change-study

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Related: Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5?°C warming (Nature Communications)

[AlexSFCA]

1. AOC is right again

[defacto7]

2. If wishes be horses..

[The_jackalope]

3. Even the Sixth Great Extinction needs some comic relief, I guess.

Notice how the comic relief keeps getting darker though? Almost like it's not funny any more.

[hunter]

4. They illustrate the Guardian article with wind turbines...

...as if that makes things better

Where art thou, Don Quixote?

[Mickju]

5. Even if that were true, it's not going to happen.

I don't see any way out of this catastrophe. The US, China and India are all increasing their use of fossil fuels.

[Rhiannon12866]

6. The operant word is "now"

[NNadir]

7. On what "carbon free" alternatives would they be? Why not announce that...

...if we took all the carbon dioxide dissolved in the ocean and filled a big white balloon with it, we'd be just fine.

Oh, I know, let's spend a trillions upon trillions of dollars on wind and solar, run lots of ads for Tesla cars in a consumerist frenzy of joy, and things will be just great.

We're doing that right now, I believe, and the use of fossil fuels is growing, the fastest growing form of energy on this planet being dangerous natural gas. Right now in this country, we're replacing nuclear plants - at 25g CO2/kWh with gas plants - at 550g/ CO2/kWh.

2018 Edition of the World Energy Outlook Table 1.1 Page 38

This is what you get when journalists in these times try to discuss science. They cherry pick "studies" that have no connection to experiment, zero.