BuRec In Arizona - Risks To SW Water Supply Worsening Quickly As Mead Keeps On Falling

[hatrack]

TEMPE — The risks of Lake Mead dropping to catastrophically low levels have ramped up dramatically, say federal officials who came here Thursday to push for completion of a long-stalled drought plan for the Colorado River Basin.

At a presentation before hundreds of local and state officials, Bureau of Reclamation Commissioner Brenda Burman and a top aide warned that the risks to the lake are unacceptable. They said it’s urgent that Arizona officials resolve their differences over the drought plan and get on board with six other Colorado River Basin states that are moving toward adopting one. Since the seven states approved a set of guidelines for managing the river’s reservoirs in 2007, the risks of Lake Mead dropping to very low levels has increased by three to six times, the bureau officials said.

EDIT

Specifically, the bureau said:

?Based on the river’s entire historical record, there’s about a 65 percent chance of Lake Mead falling below 1,075 feet — the level at which the first shortage in river water available to the CAP would occur — by 2026. Using just the last 30 years of records as a base for forecasting, that risk grows to more than 80 to 90 percent, covering a period from 2020 to 2026.

?The risk of Mead dropping below 1,025 feet by 2026 is more than 40 percent using the bureau’s “stress test” forecasts, and about 30 percent when the forecasts rely on the river’s entire historical record.

?The risk of Mead being less than 1,000 feet high by 2026 is about 20 percent under the “stress test” forecast and less than 10 percent when the river’s entire historical record is used.

EDIT

Ed. - Just FYI, Mead is currently at 1076.83 feet above sea level as of yesterday:
http://lakemead.water-data.com/

And runoff into Powell, which feeds Mead, is just above 23% of historic averages for this time of year:
http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

This is shaping up as an absolutely disastrous water year for the lower basin.

https://tucson.com/news/local/risks-to-lake-mead-colorado-river-intensifying-greatly-federal-officials/article_ed5a3146-29fb-59ba-ab6b-a65d34ba258b.html

[mountain grammy]

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