China’s Solar Energy Plans Become Even More Ambitious

[jpak]

http://cleantechnica.com/2011/12/16/chinas-solar-energy-plans-become-even-more-ambitious/

The People’s Republic of China has increased its target for installed solar power by 50%. It now aims to have 15 GW of installed solar generating capacity, by 2015, Reuters reports.

The move comes just months after China doubled its solar goal from 5 GW to 10 GW earlier this year, following the partial meltdown of the Fukishama nuclear plant in Japan.

How can China be so ambitious? It’s thought that the revised target has been made possible by an uptick in solar installations thanks to new government supports for the industry. China’s government introduced its first unified national feed-in tariff for solar energy in August, guaranteeing a price significantly higher for solar power than was previously being paid by various state agencies. Note that feed-in tariffs are believed to have driven three-quarters of global photovoltaic solar power installations.

To give you a sense of the scale of what China’s trying to achieve, consider this: at the end of 2010, the country had less than 1 GW of installed solar capacity. A government think-tank reported in August that it expected there to be 2 GW of installed solar capacity by the end of 2011.

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[kristopher]

1. K&R

[FBaggins]

2. Hardly surprising given their predicament

They put national funds into boosting their production capacity only to find that demand didn't grow nearly fast enough and - even at a reduced capacity - they have a glut of supply.

What's the government to do as company after company watches their stock price collapse, often shut down their production lines entirely, and sit on unsold panels? Create a demand for those panels of course

It isn't "ambitious"... it's desperation.

On edit - Of course there's also this business of a possible trade dispute slashing demand in the US. The debate alone could be the final nail for a handful of their less-stable companies unless they can find another outlet.

[kristopher]

3. Yes. Who could have possibly predicted that a massive expansion in excess of demand ...

Yes. Who could have possibly predicted that a massive expansion in excess of demand would result in excess capacity and inventory?

You are the worst for sour grapes that I've ever seen.

[FBaggins]

4. Obviously not you.

You claimed more than once that their capacity would result in actual production and installations.

But are you now saying that they knew they were throwing money down the drain and expected many of those plants to shut down?

[kristopher]

5. I'm sorry, but I claimed what? When?

How about some specific quotes? I've previously posted a number of things; among them the information that the massive investment was partially motivated by the desire to shut down some of the older manufacturing facilities without adequate pollution controls, and that they expect the overcapacity to be soaked up within a very short couple of years - which is why there is still about another $30B in loan money waiting for further expansion of solar manufacturing.

[FBaggins]

7. How's that looking not 15 months later?

That overcapacity getting soaked up and tens of billions being spent on further manufacturing expansion?

Or is the government forced to buy out the inventory themselves (as predicted) and ceased new lending to those manufacturers that are losing money (almost all of the major players) ?

[NickB79]

6. Is China still adding 75 GW of new coal and gas infrastructure per year?

If so, 15 GW total of installed solar capacity by 2015 sounds a bit underwhelming in comparison to what we truly need.