Later Marriage 1 Factor Among Many Driving Decline In US Fertility; Post-Recession Drop Increasing

[hatrack]

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The fertility rate has increased for women over 40, and the generation of women finishing up their childbearing years now had more children than their mothers did, but that isn't likely to be true for their daughters. The key factors driving down the birthrate are not mysterious: The pregnancy rate among young women is falling, and has been for years.

But what began as sharp declines in pregnancy and childbearing among teenagers — typically considered a socially desirable result — has slowly spread up the age cohorts, first to women in their early 20s, then to those in their late 20s. And now fertility decline has set in for women even in their 30s. Far from reversing as America grew out of economic recession, this lost fertility has worsened.

A key factor is that marriage is increasingly being postponed. Total fertility rates controlling for marital status have not changed very much over the last 15 years. But with marriage coming later, the share of women at peak childbearing ages (20 to 40) who are married has steadily fallen. As millennials in particular take their time to pair up, the average age of first birth is rising steadily. Today, the average age of a woman at first birth is over 26 years old. And while that is much higher than in the past, many European countries have an average age of first birth over 30, so there seems a lot more room to rise. In fact, the United States has the youngest age of first childbirth of any developed country.

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Sometimes, it’s the little things that drive these trends. For example, Americans across many ages and marital statuses are having less sex than they used to. Data from the General Social Survey shows that the share of people 18 to 30 who have not had sex in the past year has risen to nearly 20 percent today, from about 10 percent between 1990 and 2010, while the share having sex at least two times a month has fallen to about 65 percent, from about 75 percent from 1990 to 2010. Diminished face-to-face interaction, and possibly increased use of pornography, may explain the fall in sex, and both of those trends may be explained by the rise in cellphone usage and other screen time.

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/13/upshot/american-fertility-is-falling-short-of-what-women-want.html

[Sherman A1]

1. Interesting article

Thanks for posting.

[Freddie]

2. People who marry later, if they have children

Often only have one child. I see this a lot among people I know.