Rutgers Scientist: With 3.5 Feet Of Sea-Level Rise, 10-Year Floods In NJ Will Happen Every Day
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Q. Let's start with the parochial: What does the report say about New Jersey, long considered a sea-level hot spot?
A. This report projects a very likely global sea-level rise of 1 to 4 feet over this century, with the higher numbers more likely with more greenhouse gas emissions. Projections for New Jersey are somewhat higher. And the report finds that it is physically possible - if emissions are high and the Antarctic ice sheet proves to be more unstable than we think - that global sea level rise over this century could reach 8 feet. But we don't yet know how to determine how likely those extreme outcomes are.
Q. If we stay on this trajectory, what is life like in New Jersey for the next few generations?
A. The report finds that there are several cities in the U.S. that have experienced five- to ten-fold increases in tidal flooding since the 1960s. Consider Atlantic City: It saw an almost 6-fold increase in the number of 'nuisance' tidal floods between 1950 and 2013, rising from about four per year to about 24 per year. There are over two dozen cities around the Atlantic and Gulf coasts that are experiencing accelerated growth in tidal flooding. And that's just the more visible and commonplace effect of the encroaching sea. Rising sea levels also amplify the flooding associated with coastal storms, like nor'easters and hurricanes - something we all were intensely aware in the aftermath of Sandy. These changes add up. A foot and a half of sea-level rise at Atlantic City is enough to turn a 1-in-10-year flood into an annual flood; three and a half feet is enough to make a 1-in-10 year flood a daily affair.
Q. What kind of examples of this environmental degradation are not immediately visible or aren't being reported?
A. Honestly, I think it's reached a point where this is visible to people. That's why effects like the increase in tidal flooding are so important - they're clear, they're obvious, and they're generally not covered by insurance. This year, in fact, we've seen a good example of what the report calls 'compound extremes' -- extreme events that happen in close succession, and can have larger human impacts than those which happened in isolation. This summer, we've had three high-intensity hurricanes simultaneous with very large-scale wildfires out West. The increased frequency of those compound extremes is more common.
Q. So if flooding becomes more devastating each year, and we don't have a federal government willing to do anything about it, what should we do?
A. I'll give you a basic answer that is consistent with the report and not get into the politics of it. The science tells us that every time carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere, it causes the planet to warm a little bit; and to stabilize global climate at any level of warming ultimately requires that net carbon dioxide emissions to go to zero.
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http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2017/11/qa_with_robert_kopp_the_rutgers_climatologist_the.html
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