German Renewable Power Cheaper Than Fossils in 2030, Study Shows

[kristopher]

German Renewable Power Cheaper Than Fossils in 2030, Study Shows
By Stefan Nicola - Apr 5, 2012 8:39 AM ET

Germany will pay less for electricity from renewable sources than from coal and natural gas in 2030 if it reaches energy targets, the environment ministry said.
Renewable power will cost 7.6 euro cents per kilowatt-hour in 2030, with hard coal and natural gas rising to more than 9 euro cents per kilowatt-hour, the ministry said today in an e- mailed statement, citing a new study it commissioned.
The 331-page document monitors a plan to exit nuclear energy by 2022 and raise the share of renewable sources to at least 35 percent of the power mix by the end of this decade. It forecasts Germany beating that target to reach a share of about 40 percent renewables by 2020, up from 20 percent now.
The study’s projections show “that the plan to transform our energy mix is doable,” Environment Minister Norbert Roettgen said in the statement.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-05/german-renewable-power-cheaper-than-fossils-in-2030-study-shows.html

[FogerRox]

1. 2030 seems a bit late

Most of what I've read about US prices say less than 10 years, even 3-5. First company to break to hit the 15Mw or so turbine performance will be selling turbines way cheaper than any other electrical generation built new. And then many see solar beating that long term.

Doesnt Germany plan to hook up with the North Sea HVDC supergrid? IIRC yes.

[XemaSab]

2. Isn't that the year that the DoE thinks we'll have 20% wind penetration?

[kristopher]

3. That's when they said it is "possible"

But it depends on the policies we implement. Germany is well on the way to showing what can be done if the political will actually exists. I think the point of the OP is very valuable as it contradicts yet another false claim of the entrenched energy interests, that going green is expensive. When all is said and done the transition to renewables is positive in every category.

[joshcryer]

4. If renewable power is not cheaper than fossil...

...then people will purchase fossil.

We will hit peak coal at current and projected production rates around 2035.

[kristopher]

5. How does that purchasing process take place?

When I was a kid we used coal to cook on. I haven't heard of individuals buying coal since then, so when you say "people will purchase fossil" you are, IMO, misusing language.

That is important because "people" as individuals tend to be very difficult to regulate or educate en masse, but businesses are far easier to influence with both regulation and education when the education can show them a path of action that serves their self interest.

Your predictions are noted, but I don't think they are accurate. I think the trends you see for reduced coal consumption in the developed nations is a leading indicator for what will soon be happening globally.

One final point - the OP is talking of electricity prices based on two different energy systems, the comparison is the cost of delivered energy from a distributed renewable system vs a centralized thermal system. At present there are economic structures that make certain renewables economically preferable to certain fossil fuels.