3rd-Largest GOM Dead Zone On Record Predicted For 2017 - Estimates From 7,700 To 10,000 Sq. Miles
The 2017 summertime low-oxygen "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico along the Louisiana and Texas shore could be the third largest ever measured, according to federally sponsored research results announced Tuesday (June 20). The prediction is based on modeling of the nutrients that are carried into the gulf by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers.
Three different sets of predictions were released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and two groups of scientists working with the agency. Each prediction carried slightly different estimates of the size of the dead zone, where bottom waters contain 2 parts per million or less of oxygen, a condition known as hypoxia.
A team of researchers from the University of Michigan and North Carolina State University estimated the low-oxygen area this year would be 7,722 square miles, larger than the state of Connecticut. The official estimate by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the U.S. Geological Survey, a blend of modeling results from all the scientists, estimated the area would be 8,185 square miles, about the size of New Jersey, and the third largest since dead zone tracking begin in 1985.
However, a team of LSU and Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium researchers, which also works with the research project, estimated the 2017 zone at 10,089 square miles, larger than the state of Vermont. If that estimate is accurate, this year's hypoxia zone could be the largest ever. The average, based on 32 years of monitoring, is 5,309 square miles.
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http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2017/06/gulf_of_mexico_dead_zone_2017.html