Environment & Energy
Related: About this forumThe gravest risks on the global horizon
Extreme weather, forced migration and natural disasters
?w=660&h=942
northoftheborder
(7,574 posts)Easy to understand = put in a visual context. What is the source of this chart?
pscot
(21,024 posts)the World Economic Forum at Davos. Searching Davos on Twitter turns up a variety of interesting graphics.
northoftheborder
(7,574 posts)mahina
(17,705 posts)It's helpful.
As the poster above, I'd also like to know the source. Mahalo.
pscot
(21,024 posts)since our turn to the dark side. I'm cultivating willful ignorance as a survival technique.
mackdaddy
(1,528 posts)Is the 6.0 a percentage of likelihood over some time frame? Same with the impact axis, what do the units represent?
pscot
(21,024 posts)is more likely than illicit trade? Not sure how that works.
bananas
(27,509 posts)It's in Appendix B at http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2017/appendices/appendix-b-methodology/
For each risk, they were asked, What is the likelihood of (the risk) occurring globally within the next 10 years? and What is the negative impact for several countries or industries within the next 10 years?
For the first question, the possible answers ranged from 1 (extremely unlikely with an associated probability of occurrence lower than 5%) to 7 (extremely likely with an associated probability of occurrence greater than 95%).
For the question on impact, respondents could select one of five choices: minimal, minor, moderate, severe, or catastrophic.
These five alternatives were turned into a 15 scale (1 = minimal, 5 = catastrophic).
It is worth noting that, as a consequence of the scale modification, the impact results cannot be compared with those of previous years.
mackdaddy
(1,528 posts)I actually did follow some of the links, but did not get to this deep I guess.
I guess I feel a little better because these assignments are a bit random without any explanation of the scale.
So I wonder how some of the posters on this group would size up the chances over the next ten years for the complete collapse of civilization?
My guess for the (gene) pool is that in 10 years we will be above the 5C global average temperature, and under a billion living humans. So on their scale I would say that that would be a full 5=Catastrophic, and I would go with about 70% likely hood (same as HRC winning the general), or about a 5 out of 7 on their scale.
hatrack
(59,593 posts)Hmmmm, I wonder why?