April Temperature Anomalies - Global vs. Northern Hemisphere

[GliderGuider]

These graphs are based on the April anomalies from the NASA GISS data:
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.csv
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/NH.Ts.csv

I chose to normalize my graphs to the average of 1880-1930 readings. I chose 1930 as the baseline cutoff point because that was just before the first step change is visible in the data.

• The Northern Hemisphere (NH) has been consistently warmer than the global average.
  
• In April 2016, the global anomaly relative to the chosen baseline was +1.8° C.
  
• The Northern Hemisphere 2016 anomaly was half a degree higher than the global anomaly: +2.32° C above the baseline.

I looked at linear trends since 1965, which is when the temperatures really began to rise.

• The world appears to be warming at about 0.2° C per decade, while the NH is warming at 0.3° C per decade.
  
• The NH trend finishes in 2050 at +2.75° C
  
• The global anomaly trend finishes at about +2.15° C
  
  
• The global anomaly in 2016 was 0.55° C higher than the 2010-2015 average.
  
• The NH anomaly was 0.685° C higher than the preceding 5 year-average.

A note about El Nino:

There has been a lot of speculation about how much the recent El Nino has added to the recent temperature increase. On these graphs you can see that the 1998 El Nino caused quite a minor deviation. In 2016, the global temperature response to El Nino has been about 50% stronger than in 1998, but the NH response was only 10% stronger, compared to the anomaly one year earlier in 1997 and 2015.

I expect the temperature rise over the next year or two to moderate from the torrid pace of 2016, perhaps by a couple of tenths of a degree or so. In the other hand, it could be that 2016 marks another acceleration point, similar to what the world saw in 1965. We'll have to wait and see. While it's too early to declare a non-linear trend, but it seems to be a definite possibility.

It looks like some really bad times are coming.

[Fast Walker 52]

1. one really fucked up irony is that much of the eastern part of the US

seems to still have normal weather, or even colder weather than normal. For instance, this May has been unusually cool in the midwest (though we did have a very early spring).

The problem is that so much of the US political power is centered in this region, and they are already resistant to action on climate. They don't see significant warming, and so feel no sense of urgency.

But I do agree we are in a very dire situation and we have the worst political party in the world controlling the levers of action on climate solutions.

[GreenPartyVoter]

2. Very true.

[nitpicker]

3. Link to BBC

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-36303046