Analysis: The U.S. economy is cooling, but it is not collapsing.

[mahatmakanejeeves]

David Fahrenthold Retweeted

"In August, about half of the manufacturing sectors reported problems. By September, over 80 percent were contracting and layoffs have started" @byHeatherLong

Link to tweet

[Vogon_Glory]

1. We shall see next year

The alarm bells might not be ringing like they were in 2007, but I see no reason for blithe optimism next year.

If the economy goes down after the second quarter, Trump is toast.

[empedocles]

2. Well, reluctant to say this, however, . . .

in the postwar history of stock market breaks/recessions, JFK break, Nixon 'karma' [my label'] break of '04, Nixon 'ghost' break of the '77-82 time, '92 bush fail break, the '08 bush2 bigger fail break, - the breaks tended to get progressively worse.

According to some Elliott Wave theorists, it could be ['a decline of the next degree'] worse than the Great Depression.

[Wellstone ruled]

3. The hiring ramp up starts

in mid August and accelerates until the first of October in most years. So those Job numbers should be in the 200k+ range.

Last week was brutal on our Job Shop Industry. These are the smaller companies who do the sub-assembly components for the Big Guys. The GM Strike is killing these Folks as well as the Tariff's imposed by our Trading Partners in retaliation. We might have a small Manufacturing segment over all,but,most of the World relies on our Tooling and our Robotics technology.

Again,it is about filling those orders before the end of the year for next years production and assembly. Thus the ramp up in fall hiring. And one hopes you can keep these new hires for the next go around in Orders next year.

[progree]

4. The reported job numbers are seasonally adjusted n/t

[Wellstone ruled]

5. That I am aware of.

Something does not smell right with what was posted. To many stories about lay offs popping up.

[progree]

6. Well you indicate that you think hiring should be ramping up due to seasonal factors

and even have an estimate of what they should be. I'm saying the BLS adjusts their numbers for seasonal factors. So this is already factored in.

Seasonally Adjusted (the ones reported in the media at in BLS news releases)
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Not Seasonally Adjusted
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth


Almost every time the job numbers come out, somebody posts they should be higher because of Thanksgiving hiring or Christmas hiring or summer hiring or whatever (and interestingly I've never seen a post saying the reverse in months when the seasonal layoffs occur).

The hiring ramp up starts in mid August and accelerates until the first of October in most years. So those Job numbers should be in the 200k+ range.

... Again,it is about filling those orders before the end of the year for next years production and assembly. Thus the ramp up in fall hiring. And one hopes you can keep these new hires for the next go around in Orders next year.

[Wellstone ruled]

7. Sorry to miss lead,

normal Business Hiring begins in late August for what is called the Flush. Only this time the Hard numbers posted today seem questionable. Knowing what is happening on the ground in the Mid West,appears the October ending numbers that are reported out in November are going to be more than Butt Ugly.

Seem to remember Moscow Don spewing this statement shortly after he was Crowned by John Roberts,'I will make sure our Employment numbers look good".

[progree]

8. "normal Business Hiring begins in late August for what is called the Flush. "

once again you are talking about seasonal factors, which the BLS adjusts for. They are fully aware of the seasonal factors.

I had a late edit in my post above showing the seasonally adjusted and the non-seasonally adjusted numbers -- and you are correct that there is a surge in hiring in August and September, judging from comparing the non-seasonally adjusted numbers to the seasonally adjusted numbers

Not Seasonally Adjusted
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CEU0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Seasonally Adjusted (the ones reported in the media at in BLS news releases)
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Aug. Sept
418   362   Not seasonally adjusted increase in payroll employment, thousands
168   136   Seasonally adjusted ones

I think we'd agree that they (the seasonally adjusted ones) are pretty poor numbers, and I would expect they would be higher given the slack in the labor market -- the prime age Labor Force Participation Rate is below the pre-Great Recession numbers, going back all the way to 1987.
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1014&pid=2376580 ,

Don't remember that quote, I'd love to have it, because I do sometimes post Benedict's B.S. quotes about the job numbers, e.g.

Link to tweet

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