Economic indicators point to recession incoming in late 2020 / early 2021.

[DetlefK]

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2019/6/7/1863330/-The-poor-jobs-report-isn-t-the-only-bad-economic-sign-the-bond-market-is-screaming-recession

The 75,000 new jobs created in May undershot expert predictions by more than 100,000. And with that poor number came re-estimates for March and April that actually cut 75,000 jobs from the totals for those two months.

...

Bloomberg reports that Thursday marked 10 straight days in which the yield curve was inverted. That may not sound like anything other than financial babble. What it means is that short-term bonds are paying a higher interest rate than longer-term bonds—because the people that set those rates are betting that things over the next few years are going to be worse than they are in the next few months.

...

“On average, it has taken 311 days for the economy to begin contracting after the curve had been inverted for at least 10 days.” And the longer the rate remains inverted, the more it signals a severe, or prolonged, downturn.

...

On Monday, the Manufacturing Index Report fell to its lowest levels since 2016. The immediate suspect for this was supply-chain disruptions caused by Trump’s tariffs on China, but even if that’s the case, there’s no guarantee of a quick recovery. And it’s not just manufacturing that’s raising alarms: Commodity prices for copper and lumber are taking a tumble. That’s a scary sign of what’s happening for big, long-term projects.

If a recession follows the normal pattern, it could come along in the second or third quarter of 2020. That might seem like an optimal time for punting Trump out the door on Election Day. But it’s not clear that a single quarter of recession would have any immediate, visceral effect that would undercut the way-too-widely held belief that Trump has been good for the economy. And 310 days after an inversion is just an average time between when the economy starts turning sour and when it’s officially in recession.

The official declaration could easily come after Election Day. That’s especially true given that Trump might decide to goose the numbers a bit by ending his tariffs, or promising another round of giveaways for corporations. And when it’s all over, it’s entirely possible that we could slide into recession with absolutely no slack in the system. With the Fed rate already at zero. With Trump already having chopped corporate tax rates to an unsustainable degree. With the Republicans already burying the Treasury in record debt. With trade relations in tatters and the biggest buyer of U.S. treasuries alienated.

The author forgot something: The Trump-administration must raise the debt-ceiling by fall 2019 the ABSOLUTELY latest. It already officially ran out in March 2019.

I think we can all sleep soundly, knowing that the King of Debt will handle the US debt-ceiling in a competent manner.

[empedocles]

1. The trumpsters will continue to use all manner of misrepresentations, manipulations, to

'keep up appearances'.

[They have been remarkably effective at it so far - especially with tax incentives for unprecedented corporate buybacks in the trillions of dollars to support high stock market averages].

[DetlefK]

2. Remember how the 2008 election went?

All spring it was all about national security and McCain was doing very well against Obama.

Then summer 2008 came, out of nowhere all the economic alarm-bells went off and suddenly the election was no longer about national security. Suddenly it was about economy.

So, voters had a choice: Either a third term for GWB or vote for somebody who DIDN'T fuck up the economy.

[empedocles]

3. 2008 election is the hope. The fears are trump's so far effective stockmarket manipulations.

This 10 year 'bull market' is artificially held up. Market corrections are anticipated and will be aggressively counter inflated. Recent, Fed Chairman's reversal by trump's Powell of fed ready 'to reverse' - had all the hallmarks of a trump ['illegall?'] phone call to Powell. Markets responded vigorously upward. Wapo noted Powell's reversal as 'unusual'.

[progree]

4. It takes a year for the official arbiter of recessions, the NBER, to call a recession

It's official: Recession since Dec. '07, CNNMoney, December 1, 2008
The National Bureau of Economic Research declares what most Americans already knew: the downturn has been going on for some time.

https://money.cnn.com/2008/12/01/news/economy/recession/

It typically takes a long time after the start of a recession to declare its start because of the need to look at final readings of various economic measures.

From the OP:

“On average, it has taken 311 days for the economy to begin contracting after the curve had been inverted for at least 10 days.” And the longer the rate remains inverted, the more it signals a severe, or prolonged, downturn.

311 days from today takes us to mid April 2020. Then the NBER declares a recession in April 2021. Not helpful there.

But presumably, if a recession has begun in April 2020, there will be substantial job losses in the months that follow.

Here's the monthly job gains and losses situation in 2007 and 2008, IN THOUSANDS, for a recession that supposedly began December 2007:
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2007 225 80 237 50 152 76 -33 -23 82 76 109 110
2008 13 -82 -48 -236 -184 -166 -198 -279 -460 -481 -727 -704

so if we have the same pattern beginning in April 2020, as we did in December 2007, there will be several straight months of job losses beginning in June 2020, and becoming substantial beginning in August 2020.

There's a one-month lag in that the jobs report comes out the first Friday of the following month... so if the pattern prevailed and there were 236,000 jobs lost in August 2020, that would be reported in early September 2020 ...

FWIW.

Edited - the above table is in thousands, so for example the January 2007 job gain was 225,000.