What's the Yield Curve? 'A Powerful Signal of Recessions' Has Wall Street's Attention.

[elleng]

'You can try and play down a trade war with China. You can brush off the impact of rising oil prices on corporate earnings.

But if you’re in the business of making economic predictions, it has become very difficult to disregard an important signal from the bond market.

The so-called yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done before with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street.

Terms like “yield curve” can be mind-numbing if you’re not a bond trader, but the mechanics, practical impact and psychology of it are fairly straightforward. Here’s what the fuss is all about.'>>>

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/business/what-is-yield-curve-recession-prediction.html?

[empedocles]

1. Look at any multi year sp market chart

and a character change in the market is obvious since January. btw, djia down 335 this morning as I write this.

[sandensea]

2. The Trump slump

As much as he hates the Bushes, his administration is starting to look a lot like Dubya's on the economic front.

And we all remember how that turned out.

[quartz007]

3. What is the big deal about market fluctuations?

Periodic corrections are good for the market.
It is like having a big bowel movement once in a while.
It is necessary and healthy.

Markets have advanced faster than gains in productivity and corporate profits. Time for a much needed breather.