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Trump's new problem: There's growing talk of a downturn in 2019
Except it won't be just Trump's problem; it will be everyone's problem.
Retweeted by David Fahrenthold: https://twitter.com/Fahrenthold
Trump is running a high-risk economic experiment (that could go badly)
Link to tweet
Wonkblog Analysis
Trump’s new problem: There’s growing talk of a downturn in 2019
By Heather Long February 13 at 6:30 AM
President Trump is beginning his second year in office with a high-risk strategy: juicing the U.S. economy at a time when it already looks pretty healthy. As his latest budget plan, released Monday, makes clear, Trump wants growth of 3 percent — or more — a year for the next seven years, a feat that hasn’t happened since Ronald Reagan was president in the 1980s.
Most economists say Trump’s economic dream is virtually impossible. The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters, for example, doesn't predict growth will hit 3 percent at all in Trump's first term. The United States is in a different place today than it was three decades ago, many say. The population is much older, making it more difficult to sustain higher growth, especially without additional immigration or some sort of technological revolution that would make American workers the most productive they have been since the 1960s.
....
His budget predicts the longest expansion in U.S. history, with moderate inflation and unemployment falling to 3.7 percent in 2019, the lowest level since 1969. Some economists, however, say the more likely result is growth picks up for a year or so and then a downturn hits. By then, the U.S. government would be even deeper in debt with less money to spend to revive the economy. ... “This is a joke,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “I would love if we had 3 percent growth for two years, let alone seven years. But we have an aging population, and there is no plausible story I can tell where we’re on a path toward sustained economic growth at that level.”
....
Increasingly, Wall Street banks and independent economic researchers are starting to flag doubts about the health of the Trump economy, further fueling the concern that a downturn could hit in 2019. The thinking is that the economy is likely to overheat, forcing the Federal Reserve to have to hike interest rates quickly to prevent inflation, where prices rise rapidly on everything from rents to food to gas. Once the Fed starts pumping up rates, business and consumers are likely to pull back their spending. ... This year “is likely to be as good as it gets,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics. “The slowdown may not necessarily come in first half of 2019, but maybe the second half, as there’s a bigger drag from tighter monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus wears off.”
....
Heather Long is an economics correspondent. Before joining The Washington Post's Wonkblog, she was a senior economics reporter at CNN and a columnist and deputy editor at the Patriot-News in Harrisburg, Pa. Follow @byHeatherLong
Trump’s new problem: There’s growing talk of a downturn in 2019
By Heather Long February 13 at 6:30 AM
President Trump is beginning his second year in office with a high-risk strategy: juicing the U.S. economy at a time when it already looks pretty healthy. As his latest budget plan, released Monday, makes clear, Trump wants growth of 3 percent — or more — a year for the next seven years, a feat that hasn’t happened since Ronald Reagan was president in the 1980s.
Most economists say Trump’s economic dream is virtually impossible. The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters, for example, doesn't predict growth will hit 3 percent at all in Trump's first term. The United States is in a different place today than it was three decades ago, many say. The population is much older, making it more difficult to sustain higher growth, especially without additional immigration or some sort of technological revolution that would make American workers the most productive they have been since the 1960s.
....
His budget predicts the longest expansion in U.S. history, with moderate inflation and unemployment falling to 3.7 percent in 2019, the lowest level since 1969. Some economists, however, say the more likely result is growth picks up for a year or so and then a downturn hits. By then, the U.S. government would be even deeper in debt with less money to spend to revive the economy. ... “This is a joke,” said Marc Goldwein, senior policy director at the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. “I would love if we had 3 percent growth for two years, let alone seven years. But we have an aging population, and there is no plausible story I can tell where we’re on a path toward sustained economic growth at that level.”
....
Increasingly, Wall Street banks and independent economic researchers are starting to flag doubts about the health of the Trump economy, further fueling the concern that a downturn could hit in 2019. The thinking is that the economy is likely to overheat, forcing the Federal Reserve to have to hike interest rates quickly to prevent inflation, where prices rise rapidly on everything from rents to food to gas. Once the Fed starts pumping up rates, business and consumers are likely to pull back their spending. ... This year “is likely to be as good as it gets,” said Paul Ashworth, chief North American economist at Capital Economics. “The slowdown may not necessarily come in first half of 2019, but maybe the second half, as there’s a bigger drag from tighter monetary policy and the fiscal stimulus wears off.”
....
Heather Long is an economics correspondent. Before joining The Washington Post's Wonkblog, she was a senior economics reporter at CNN and a columnist and deputy editor at the Patriot-News in Harrisburg, Pa. Follow @byHeatherLong
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