Here's what keeps economists up at night

[bronxiteforever]

What’s to worry about? A lot, if you’re an economist...the future holds a recession. There is no consensus on when it will come (likely not in 2018) or why, or how deep it will be. But it will come because recessions always come. And it is not the fact that a recession is in our future that worries us. What worries us is our ability to respond to it....During economic downturns, policymakers typically attempt to mitigate their effects by trying to encourage spending... They could also include tax cuts to increase consumers’ disposable incomes and encourage consumption—the largest component of GDP.

Using fiscal policy is a tried-and-true method of stimulating the economy, but the government just enacted a very large stimulus—the tax bill. Cutting taxes amid an economic growth cycle means that there will be little appetite for doing so again in a recession. The post-war U.S. debt as a share of GDP has never been higher, and the addition of another $1.5 trillion to the deficit because of the tax bill will not lead many in Congress to support further tax cuts to stimulate the economy. In fact, many will react to an increasing deficit by calling for cuts in spending, a move that would probably only deepen a downturn. To make matters worse, the increase in interest rates will increase the cost of carrying the debt we already have, further increasing that burden.
...We know business cycles are inexorable—a recession is coming. We also know that our ability to effectively respond to the next one is curtailed. Welcome to the world of an economist. Sleep tight.

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/money/2018/02/01/local-economist-heres-what-keeps-economists-up-night/1069789001/