Economic depression: when is the next one ?

[steve2470]

Just curious about you think.

Economic depression definitions

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	Never
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	2018
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	2019
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	2020
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	Any option you can possibly think of (include in your post)
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[HeartachesNhangovers]

1. Based on this definition in the link you provided:

a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or
a recession lasting 2 or more years.

I would say that there is no technical basis to predict a depression based on a 10% drop in GDP anytime in the future. GDP is increasing, and has been since 2009. GDP may well go down in the future, but under existing conditions, any prediction of GDP contraction would just be a guess.

As far as a recession lasting 2 or more years, the Wall Street Journal has already done the analysis (actually a monthly poll of 60+ economists based on 10+ economic indicators). The answer is:

14.64% chance of recession

I couldn't tell whether this is a prediction of a 2+ year recession, though or whether they use a different definition (I've heard that 2 quarters of negative economic growth are considered to be a recession, which is obviously less than 2 years).

WSJ link: