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How Low-Skilled Workers Could Rescue the U.S. Economy
How Low-Skilled Workers Could Rescue the U.S. Economy
Their re-entry into the labor force will help power a revival in growth over the next decade, a Harvard economist argues
By Adam Creighton
adam.creighton@dowjones.com
http://twitter.com/adam_creighton
Aug 2, 2016 2:06 pm ET
Remember those low-skilled workers, the ones who are disappearing from the work force because globalization and technology have passed them by? The ones whose economic frustration is driving populist politics around the world?
New research by Harvard economist Dale Jorgenson offers a cheerier outlook for both them and economic growth.
His new study, which breaks down the forces propelling U.S. growth since 1947—the year the transistor was invented—and projects them forward to 2024, anticipates a boom in low-skilled work that rekindles economic growth to the tune of 2.49% a year from now till then, a little above the 2.34% experienced from 1990 to 2014. ... Those workers will fill service jobs in a growing economy, he suggests.
While the average quality of the labor force will begin to flat-line, the number of hours worked will rebound as employment-participation rates flick back to near where they were before the Great Recession, the paper says. Among men and women ages 25 to 35 with only high-school qualifications, these rates are still 10 percentage points below their peaks in the early 2000s (at just under 80% and 60%, respectively).
Their re-entry into the labor force will help power a revival in growth over the next decade, a Harvard economist argues
By Adam Creighton
adam.creighton@dowjones.com
http://twitter.com/adam_creighton
Aug 2, 2016 2:06 pm ET
Remember those low-skilled workers, the ones who are disappearing from the work force because globalization and technology have passed them by? The ones whose economic frustration is driving populist politics around the world?
New research by Harvard economist Dale Jorgenson offers a cheerier outlook for both them and economic growth.
His new study, which breaks down the forces propelling U.S. growth since 1947—the year the transistor was invented—and projects them forward to 2024, anticipates a boom in low-skilled work that rekindles economic growth to the tune of 2.49% a year from now till then, a little above the 2.34% experienced from 1990 to 2014. ... Those workers will fill service jobs in a growing economy, he suggests.
While the average quality of the labor force will begin to flat-line, the number of hours worked will rebound as employment-participation rates flick back to near where they were before the Great Recession, the paper says. Among men and women ages 25 to 35 with only high-school qualifications, these rates are still 10 percentage points below their peaks in the early 2000s (at just under 80% and 60%, respectively).
