STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Tuesday, 1 December 2015

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, 1 December 2015[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 30 November 2015

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 30 November 2015
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Dow Jones 17,719.92 -78.57 (-0.44%)
S&P 500 2,080.41 -9.70 (-0.46%)
Nasdaq 5,108.67 -18.86 (-0.37%)


[font color=green]10 Year 2.21% -0.02 (-0.90%)
30 Year 2.97% -0.02 (-0.67%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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(click on link for latest updates)
Market Updates
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts
08/03/15 Former City (London) trader Tom Hayes found guilty of rigging global Libor interest rates. Each fo eight counts carries up to 10 yr. sentence.
08/21/15 Charles Antonucci Sr, former pres. Park Ave. Bank sentenced to 2.5 years in prison for bribery, fraud, embezzlement, and attempt to steal $11MM in TARP bailout funds, as well as $37.5MM fraud on OK insurance company. To pay $54MM in restitution and give up additional $11MM.
09/21/15 Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn apologizes for VW cheating on air quality standards with emission testing avoidance device. Stock drops 20%, fines may total $18B.
09/22/15 Stewart Parnell, CEO Peanut Corp. of America, sentenced to 28 years in prison for selling salmonella-tainted peanut butter that killed nine.





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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Proserpina]

1. Mom's still in limbo on DU, and worse!

She wanted to move in with me! With my sister and her cat!

The furnace inspection failed, and they wanted to turn off her heat. I told her about the hotel that lets pets in for free (I worked as a desk clerk), then the furnace guys came back with a different meter, and said it was marginal, did she want to try to eke out another year?

Mom had set up a furnace replacement already, so she's going ahead with that on Wednesday. Carbon monoxide is such a stuffy way to die...

I still got classes, but I will post a few items, but I don't promise anything.

[Proserpina]

2. “We’ve Seen this Before” – in 1999, then Stocks Crashed

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/29/weve-seen-this-before-in-1999-then-stocks-crashed/

“A lot of deterioration and decay under the hood”

The fourth quarter is normally a very strong quarter, and December exceptionaly strong in the global markets, says Christine Hughes, Chief Investment Strategist at OtterWood Capital. This quarter too, global markets are in the green after a powerful rally in October.

But for the year, the S&P 500 has been stagnating. Wthout the top 10 mega-cap stocks (which are up 14%), the index is actually down 6%. This spread between the top ten names and the rest of the index now amounts to 20%.

“We’ve seen this before,” Hughes says. Last time a spread of this magnitude occurred was in 1999. At that time, the rest of the market was strong. And it ended in a three-year crash. This time, the rest of the market is already weak. Then there’s Glencore, whose collapse would ricochet around the global credit markets and hit stock markets. So here’s Christine Hughes, charts and all:

video at link

[Proserpina]

3. Europe Proposes Eight-Year Move to Joint Deposit Insurance

Won't do Europe much good if the crash comes before that...it only took the USA a year to put FDIC in effect

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/eu-plans-common-deposit-insurance-fund-as-germany-balks-at-risks

The European Union plans to create a common, bank-funded deposit-insurance system starting in 2017, trying to overcome fierce German opposition to the plan with steps to make lenders safer.

The European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, presented its European Deposit Insurance Scheme in Strasbourg, France, on Tuesday. The new system will be phased in to 2024, allowing EU countries to put their own deposit-insurance programs in order and addressing Germany’s concerns about risk-pooling. Banks’ contributions to the EU system will be adjusted for the risks they pose to financial stability.

Jonathan Hill, the EU’s financial-services chief, also vowed to press ahead with legislation forcing banks to raise their loss-absorbing capacity and to reduce exposure to their home country’s government bonds. He promised to push lagging member states to implement the bloc’s new banking rules.

more

[Proserpina]

4. World's Biggest Pension Fund Loses $64 Billion Amid Equity Rout

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/world-s-biggest-pension-fund-loses-64-billion-amid-equity-rout

The world’s biggest pension fund posted its worst quarterly loss since at least 2008 after a global stock rout in August and September wiped $64 billion off the Japanese asset manager’s investments.

The 135.1 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion) Government Pension Investment Fund lost 5.6 percent last quarter as the value of its holdings declined by 7.9 trillion yen, according to documents released Monday in Tokyo. That’s the biggest percentage drop in comparable data starting from April 2008. The fund lost 8 trillion yen on its domestic and foreign equities and 241 billion yen on overseas debt, while Japanese bonds handed GPIF a 302 billion yen gain.

The loss was GPIF’s first since doubling its allocation to stocks and reducing debt last October, and highlights the risk of sharp short-term losses that come with the fund’s more aggressive investment style. Fund executives have argued that holding more shares and foreign assets is a better approach as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seeks to spur inflation that would erode the purchasing power of bonds...

more

[Proserpina]

5. There's a Big Drop in U.S. Treasury Debt Supply Coming in 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/there-s-a-big-drop-in-u-s-treasury-debt-supply-coming-in-2016

Lost in the debate over the U.S. Treasury market’s resilience as the Federal Reserve starts to raise interest rates is one simple fact: supply is falling -- and fast.

Net issuance of U.S. notes and bonds will tumble 27 percent next year, according to estimates by primary dealers that are obligated to bid at Treasury debt auctions. The $418 billion of new supply would be the least since 2008.

While a narrowing budget deficit is reducing the U.S.’s funding needs, the Treasury has shifted its focus to T-bills as post-crisis regulations prompt investors to demand a larger stock of short-term debt instead. The drop-off in longer-term debt supply may keep a lid on yields, providing another reason to believe Fed Chair Janet Yellen can end an unprecedented era of easy money without causing a jump in borrowing costs that derails the economy.

“Longer-term yields will be slower to move up next year because the Treasury will be funding more with bills,” said Ward McCarthy, the chief financial economist at Jefferies Group LLC, who has analyzed U.S. debt markets for over three decades and was a senior economist at the Richmond Fed. “There is also a global appetite for Treasuries as U.S. debt is one of the world’s highest-yielding and is among the most liquid markets.”

more, much more

[Proserpina]

6. How to Slow Climate Change With a Fake Volcano

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/how-to-slow-climate-change-with-a-fake-volcano

There’s a cheap, quick, dirty, and controversial way to combat global warming that isn’t on the agenda of the United Nations climate summit in Paris, which runs from Nov. 30 to Dec. 11. It involves replicating the planet-cooling effect of a volcanic eruption. When Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines blew in 1991, its emissions briefly reversed most of the global warming that had occurred since the start of the Industrial Revolution. The idea is to mimic Pinatubo by using a fleet of modified business jets to inject fine droplets of sulfuric acid into the stratosphere, where they would combine with water vapor to form fine sulfate?particles that reflect sunlight away from the earth.

Scientists estimate that a few grams of sulfate would be enough to counteract the warming effect of a ton of carbon dioxide. The cost of this planetary protection? Perhaps 0.01 percent of the annual world gross domestic product. In other words, almost nothing. The cost of stopping the entire planet from warming would be not much more per decade than the $6 billion the Italian government is spending to protect one city, Venice, from rising sea levels. That’s the calculation of a leading figure in the debate over so-called geoengineering, David Keith, a professor of applied physics at Harvard and of public policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.

Naturally, there’s a catch. Several, in fact. The sun shield would merely mask the rising concentration of greenhouse gases, like perfuming a skunk. It adds one pollutant to counteract another. It could reverse progress toward closing the hole in the ozone layer by ripping apart ozone molecules. Sulfate particles falling from the sky could cause air pollution deaths. It would leave fertile coral reefs exposed to deadly bleaching because it wouldn’t do anything about ocean acidification. It could even become a cause for war if one country decided it was harmed by another’s climate meddling. Even Keith allows that it’s a “brutally ugly technical fix.”

Critics’ biggest worry: It would be perceived as a get-out-of-jail-free card for the planet. If pausing global warming is as easy as sending a fleet of modified Gulfstream G650s into the stratosphere with payloads of sulfuric acid, the weak pressure to cut back on emissions of greenhouse gases might get even weaker. That’s why you won’t find it mentioned on the agenda of the Paris summit, a major event that’s expected to draw 45,000 people from more than 190 countries...

Acid rain, anyone? more at link

[Proserpina]

7. IMF Approves Reserve-Currency Status for China's Yuan

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/imf-backs-yuan-in-reserve-currency-club-after-rejection-in-2010

The IMF will add the yuan to its basket of reserve currencies, an international stamp of approval of the strides China has made integrating into a global economic system dominated for decades by the U.S., Europe and Japan.

The International Monetary Fund’s executive board, which represents the fund’s 188 member nations, decided the yuan meets the standard of being “freely usable” and will join the dollar, euro, pound and yen in its Special Drawing Rights basket, the organization said Monday in a statement. Approval was expected after IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde announced Nov. 13 that her staff recommended inclusion, a position she supported.

It’s the first change in the SDR’s currency composition since 1999, when the euro replaced the deutsche mark and French franc. It’s also a milestone in a decades-long ascent toward international credibility for the yuan, which was created after World War II and for years could be used only domestically in the Communist-controlled nation. The IMF reviews the composition of the basket every five years and rejected the yuan during the last review, in 2010, saying it didn’t meet the necessary criteria.

“The renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR is a clear indication of the reforms that
have been implemented and will continue to be implemented and is a clear,
stronger representation of the global economy,” Lagarde said Monday during a press briefing at the IMF’s headquarters in Washington. Renminbi is the currency’s official name and means “the people’s currency” in Mandarin; yuan is the unit.

more

[Proserpina]

11. Masters of the Finance Universe Are Worried About China

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-22/masters-of-universe-scared-of-china-risks-see-yuan-devaluation

David Tepper says a yuan devaluation may be coming in China. John Burbank warns that a hard landing there could spark a global recession.

Tepper, the billionaire owner of Appaloosa Management, said last week at the Robin Hood Investor’s Conference that the Chinese yuan is massively overvalued and needs to fall further. His comments follow similar forecasts from some of the biggest hedge fund managers, including Crispin Odey, founder of the $12 billion Odey Asset Management, who predicts China will devalue the yuan by at least 30 percent.

The money managers are losing faith in China’s ability to revive its economy, which suffers from rising nonperforming loans and falling exports, after the surprise 1.9 percent currency devaluation in August and global market rout that followed. The investors made their dire forecasts after shares of U.S.-traded Chinese companies, which their funds sold in the third quarter, began to rebound in October.

“The downside scenario for China seems more intimidating than ever before,” billionaire Dan Loeb wrote on Oct. 30 to investors at Third Point, which manages $18 billion. “The new question is not whether but how severe the slowdown of the world’s foremost growth machine will be.”

more

[Proserpina]

12. A Hard Landing in China Could 'Shake the World'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-19/a-hard-landing-in-china-could-shake-the-world-

China's slowdown is already playing out across the world, dragging down commodity prices and weighing on trade partners.

And that's while the economy is still growing at about 7 percent. So imagine what happens in a hard-landing scenario.

The crew at Oxford Economics have done just that in a new report that makes stark reading for anyone with a stake in the global economy.

China's economic boom of the past 30 years means it now accounts for 11 percent of world GDP and around 10 percent of world trade. For resources, it's an even bigger player, accounting for 11 percent of world oil demand and 40 to 70 percent of demand for other key commodities, according to the Oxford Economics research. Its financial system is massive, with its broad money supply now larger than the U.S.'s and amounting to over 20 percent of the world's.

So were China to sneeze, the world may well catch a cold.

more

[Proserpina]

8. The Decline of the Office Holiday Party

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-30/more-companies-cut-the-holiday-party


The economy is recovering, companies are spending more on benefits, employee satisfaction and retention are being monitored. And the holiday party is declining.

Could it be that people don't like it?

Of companies surveyed by the Society for Human Resource Management (SHRM), 65 percent said they plan to hold an end-of-the-year gathering for their employees, down from 72 percent in 2012. In 1998, 83 percent of those surveyed threw parties. This year's participation rate is not as low as recession levels: In 2009, only 61 percent of employers were planning soirees.

But, unlike in 2009, companies aren't opting out for financial reasons. This year, only 6 percent of respondents cited budget constraints as a reason for cutting the party, down from 20 percent in 2009, at the height of financial crisis austerity...

more

[Proserpina]

9. BoA: 'Great Divorce' Between World's Two Largest Economies Will Drive Currency & Rates Markets 2016

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-23/bank-of-america-the-great-divorce-between-the-world-s-two-largest-economies-will-drive-currency-and-rates-markets-in-2016

The "marriage of convenience" is over.

Don't sleep on the prospect of more currency depreciation from the People's Bank of China, warns Bank of America Merrill Lynch, calling for a "great divorce" between the U.S. and the world's second-largest economy in the coming year.

David Woo, head of global rates and currencies research, laid out the case for the team's favorite trade of 2016—buy USDCNH six-month forwards—in his preview for the year ahead:

"On the eve of the December FOMC meeting, we think the question is not whether the U.S. economy can live with higher interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. The question is, given the semi USD/RMB peg and China's increasing open capital account (which come at the expense of China's monetary independence), whether China can live with higher U.S. interest rates and a higher U.S. dollar. We are skeptical. This is why we think the USD/RMB peg, a marriage of convenience that has been the anchor for the global growth model for the better part of the last 15 years, is headed for a divorce, and we think the RMB devaluation on Aug. 11 was a first small step in this direction."

The strategist doesn't think the motive for depreciation is to put Chinese exporters in a position to seize a larger share of global demand by improving their competitiveness. Rather, this is all about allowing the People's Bank of China enough room to enact easier monetary policy in the face of an economy whose growth is moderating.

"We believe the RMB will weaken further because, given the increased openness of China’s capital account, Beijing will not be able to lower interest rates and defend the RMB at the same time," wrote Woo, reiterating his longstanding call.

more

[Proserpina]

10. Fattest-Ever U.S. Cattle Herd Signals End to Record Beef Prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-27/fattest-ever-u-s-cattle-herd-signals-end-to-record-beef-prices

Cattle in the U.S. are now the fattest they’ve ever been, signaling an end to the seven-year run of record beef prices just as losses begin to mount for American feedlot owners.

Tom Fanning, who manages a feedlot herd of 30,000 in Buffalo, Oklahoma, says he loses $100 to $300 on each animal he sells to slaughtering plants, even though they are bigger and produce more meat than ever. Its worse for other producers. On average, industry losses began in December and ballooned to $420 a head this month, the Livestock Marketing Information Center estimates.

Cattle futures have plunged 22 percent from an all-time high a year ago as the U.S. herd began a long-awaited expansion and consumers switched to cheaper chicken and pork. That’s squeezed feedlot owners who buy year-old steers and raise them on a diet of mostly corn for more than four months. To ease the pain, operators like Fanning are taking advantage of ample, low-cost grain supplies by holding cattle for almost a month longer than normal, which means the animals get bigger and generate more revenue...

more

[Fuddnik]

14. Next up- The fattest me ever!

[Hotler]

13. "Fed replaces 'too big to fail' with 'too broke to borrow"

Well, there's no need to worry about a repeat occurrence. The Federal Reserve Board adopted a rule Monday that prohibits emergency lending to individual firms or to insolvent companies, in keeping with the Dodd-Frank financial industry reform law of 2010. That bill limited the central bank's emergency lending authority to "broad-based" programs and required the approval of the Treasury Secretary.

"Dodd-Frank took away the Fed's authority "to lend for the purpose of aiding a failing firm or preventing a firm from entering bankruptcy or another resolution process, such as was done with loans to Bear Stearns and AIG," Fed Chair Janet Yellen said before the meeting."

Thanks for sharing that with us Janet.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-replaces-too-big-to-fail-with-too-broke-to-borrow/ar-AAfQ3y7?li=BBnb7Kv


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