STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Tuesday, 10 November 2015

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, 10 November 2015[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 9 November 2015

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 9 November 2015
[center][font color=red]
Dow Jones 17,730.48 -179.85 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 2,078.58 -20.62 (-0.98%)
Nasdaq 5,095.30 -51.82 (-1.01%)


[font color=red]10 Year 2.35% +0.01 (0.43%)
30 Year 3.12% +0.02 (0.65%) [font color=black]


[center][/font]

[HR width=85%]

[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
[center]
(click on link for latest updates)
Market Updates
[/center]

[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

[/center]

[center]

[/center]

[HR width=95%]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
[center]
Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
[center]
The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
[center]
Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
[center]
LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center]

[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
[center]
Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
[/center]

[div]
[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts
08/03/15 Former City (London) trader Tom Hayes found guilty of rigging global Libor interest rates. Each fo eight counts carries up to 10 yr. sentence.
08/21/15 Charles Antonucci Sr, former pres. Park Ave. Bank sentenced to 2.5 years in prison for bribery, fraud, embezzlement, and attempt to steal $11MM in TARP bailout funds, as well as $37.5MM fraud on OK insurance company. To pay $54MM in restitution and give up additional $11MM.
09/21/15 Volkswagen CEO Martin Winterkorn apologizes for VW cheating on air quality standards with emission testing avoidance device. Stock drops 20%, fines may total $18B.
09/22/15 Stewart Parnell, CEO Peanut Corp. of America, sentenced to 28 years in prison for selling salmonella-tainted peanut butter that killed nine.





[HR width=95%]


[center]


[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. So, who dropped what into the punch bowl?

[Demeter]

2. Americans over 30 are more miserable than they’ve ever been By Catey Hill

TELL ME ABOUT IT!

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-over-30-are-more-miserable-than-theyve-ever-been-2015-11-09?siteid=YAHOOB

It all goes downhill after 30 — at least when it comes to happiness.

“Adults over 30 are less happy than their predecessors,” concludes a study published online Thursday in the journal Social Psychology and Personality Science, which examined happiness data from more than 50,000 adults, gleaned from the General Social Survey, carried out by NORC at the University of Chicago, a nonpartisan, independent research organization, which has collected information about American adults since 1972...From 2010 to 2014, adults over 30 had an average happiness score of just 2.18, compared with 2.24 a decade ago. That’s significant considering happiness scores were measured on a tiny scale from just 1 to 3, with 1 being “not too happy” and 3 being “very happy.” (The data used five-year cohort periods so that single year fluctuations were smoothed out.)



What’s perhaps even more interesting is that, for the first time ever, adults ages 18 to 29 were happier than adults over 30. “The happiness advantage of mature adults over adolescents has dwindled,” write the authors of the study, entitled “More Happiness for Young People and Less for Mature Adults: Time Period Differences in Subjective Well-Being in the United States, 1972 - 2014.”

While the authors don’t know for sure why younger adults are happier than older ones for the first time in at least 40 years, they do have some theories. First, rising inequality may have more of an impact on the well-being of older adults than on younger ones, who are more apt to think they can overcome such things given that they have more time. And older adults may be more disappointed by the “increasingly unrealistic expectations for educational attainment, jobs, material goods and relationships,” the authors write, while younger adults still have hope for these things. That said, there are plenty of studies that show we get happier as we get older (including a study published in 2011 in the journal Psychology and Aging, which revealed that “emotional experience improves with age”).



In general, women are slightly happier than men, the authors found — a finding that’s backed up by other research, including a worldwide survey by Gallup, which found that 40% of women were very happy, compared with only 34% of men. Researchers aren’t quite sure why this is, but the differences between the genders in terms of happiness tend to be fairly small.

[Demeter]

3. ObamaCare Open Enrollment Begins: Fraud-Enabling Front End, Collapsing Co-Ops, Constitutional Challe

ObamaCare Open Enrollment Begins: Fraud-Enabling Front End, Collapsing Co-Ops, Constitutional Challenge

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/11/obamacare-open-enrollment-begins-fraud-enabling-front-end-collapsing-co-ops-constitutional-challenge.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

This post is a round-up of the current issues in the never-ending saga of ObamaCare, Rube Goldberg device (an example for those who came in late[1]). There are three current issues:

1) The new and improved ObamaCare website. Does it make “smart shopping” possible? Spoiler alert: No.

2) The collapse of ObamaCare co-ops. Was it pre-ordained when ObamaCare was passed? Spoiler alert: Yes, but there’s unexpected hope.

3) The current court challenge to ObamaCare, Sissel. What does it tell us about Democrats?

(There’s plenty more to cover — premium increases, for one, as well as the actual policies made available — but these three issues are the hot stories right now.)

DETAILS AT LINK

TODAY'S HUMOR POST

[Demeter]

7. A View From the Losing Side of Health Care

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jacqueline-dooley/a-view-from-the-losing-si_b_8499202.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

For the last three hours I've been crunching numbers, trying to figure out how not to pay $600 to $800 a month for a health insurance policy that won't cover any medical expenses until I've paid anywhere from $7000 to $9000 in deductibles. Then, even if the deductible is met, I'd only get partial benefits until I pay an out of pocket maximum ranging from $11,000 to $14,000. I'd reach these totals only from a catastrophic health event - a hospitalization, emergency room visit, or devastating diagnosis.

I finally conclude that I have no choice. I'll be paying for the promise of a service that I'm not likely to use in 2016. I'll be responsible for all of physician visits, medications, labs and most tests. I'm in this position because I'm one of the 200,000 people who lost coverage when Health Republic Insurance was forced to close its doors this month.

I've been looking at the silver plans, but out of curiosity I pull up the pricing for the platinum--the best coverage money can buy. I'm almost embarrassed to look at these plans. I know they're not for me, a lowly middle class freelancer. The premiums range from $1200 a month to $1900 without the government subsidy. Even with my subsidy, most of these plans would cost me roughly the same amount as my monthly mortgage. For that price, I don't have to meet a deductible, but I'd still have to cover copayments ranging from $15 to $600 until I reach an out of pocket maximum of $4000.

It doesn't seem so bad, but then I think about that $1500 and how hard it will be to pay each and every month. My income fluctuates. I lose clients, get new ones, lose them again. There were some months this past year that it was hard for me to pay for my $660 premium with the now defunct Health Republic Insurance. I had the platinum plan with them and it was actually affordable, except my therapist dropped out of the plan in March and my primary care physician dropped out in July. So, I didn't even use the benefits much...

THE TRAGEDY BEHIND THE PREVIOUS POST

[Demeter]

4. Finland prepares universal basic income experiment

http://inhabitat.com/finland-prepares-universal-basic-income-experiment/

The Finnish Social Insurance Institution, also known as Kela, has begun work on a proposal that would guarantee a basic income to every citizen of the small Nordic nation. This system of a universal state-facilitated payment delivered to every Finnish person would transform the state’s welfare system and potentially provide a blueprint for other countries looking to build a different kind of economy.

When fully implemented, the universal basic income would provide every Finnish citizen with a monthly taxfree payment of 800 euros, equivalent to about USD 881. This would replace currently existing social benefits received through the Finnish welfare system. Any income earned beyond the basic income will be taxable. Kela’s basic income proposal includes a trial period in which the payment delivered to citizens is only 550 euros, while existing benefits such as housing and income support would not be affected.

Unemployment has steadily increased in Finland over the past decade and citizens are eager for innovative solutions. In April 2015, the pro-basic income Centre Party won the most seats in the Finnish parliament elections with 21 percent of the vote. Two other pro-basic income parties, the Green League and the Left Alliance, respectively won 8 percent and 7 percent of the vote. Even the voters for the nationalist True Finns party, which won 17.6 percent of the vote, support basic income, with 57 percent approval.



Kela aims to submit its basic income proposal to the Finnish government by November 2016. The government then intends to begin the trial on a national level. The city of Utrecht in the nearby Netherlands has already begun its basic income experiment. Basic income promises to free workers from the need to earn a living by any means necessary. With stability in one’s life, the individual is then free to pursue creative, entrepreneurial, or humanitarian causes. They are better able to maintain family and community. Thanks to progressive policymakers in Finland, the whole world will soon learn whether this promise is true.

[Demeter]

5. Why Childcare Workers Are So Poor, Even Though Childcare Costs So Much

They can't even afford daycare for their own kids...

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2015/11/childcare-workers-cant-afford-childcare/414496/

Childcare is really expensive. In some states the costs can top 15 percent of the median income for a married couple. And when looking at single-family households, that burden can easily pass 40 percent of the median income.

One place all that money is not going: the pockets of the workers doing all that childcare. On average, these women (it’s almost entirely women) are paid significantly less than the average American worker and are twice as likely to live in poverty, a new study released by the Economic Policy Institute (EPI) found. The median hourly wage for childcare workers in the U.S. is $10.39, nearly 40 percent below the median hourly wage of workers in other occupations. Even when accounting for the demographic makeup of the childcare industry—workers are more likely to be minorities, much more likely to be women, and less likely to have a bachelor’s or advanced degree—their earnings were still 23 percent lower than in other occupations. Childcare workers also had less access to benefits, such as health insurance and retirement funds, than people employed in other fields.

Elise Gould, a senior economist at EPI and the author of the study, says that often people think of childcare workers as somewhat similar to elementary-school teachers, since they are providing care and enrichment for children all day (albeit with fewer required credentials). But the compensation for childcare workers more closely mirrors that of a cashier or a food-service worker than a teacher, she says.

As a part of her analysis, Gould tried to determine if these workers could afford childcare services for their own kids. “The exercise to see whether or not childcare workers can afford childcare might sound cute, but it’s actually distressing,” she says. That’s because the answer was by and large, no. According to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, for childcare to be considered “affordable” it should cost no more than 10 percent of a family’s income (a figure that will surely seem like a bargain to many readers). Gould found that, on average, childcare would cost childcare workers closer to one-third of their salary....

[Demeter]

6. Why New Antibiotics Never Come to Market Written by David Cox

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/why-new-antibiotics-never-come-to-market?trk_source=homepage-lede

New antibiotics are generated naturally over time by bacteria, as weapons in their ongoing chemical warfare against other microbes. Predicting where and when they can be found relies mostly on good fortune and following a hunch. Murphy’s hunch is that the bacteria which live on freshwater sponges could be a hive of new chemicals. “We don’t know a huge amount about these species,” he said. “But the only way to find out if there’s anything there is by actually diving down there and carving them off with a knife.” But even if these sponges yield the antibiotics of the future, there are seemingly endless roadblocks that prevent us from actually using them to cure disease.

***

Bioprospecting—the technical term for the quest to find the drugs of the future—can be frustrating, but it’s never boring. Sometimes it’s even dangerous. “We try to do really safe dives but it can be tough,” he said. “There’s been times diving in Vietnam when it’s been particularly hazardous. Out there people sometimes just throw stuff overboard without really thinking twice. You end up navigating these shallow waters, with fishing nets sticking out all over the place, and at the same time you’re trying to avoid these fields of stinging jellyfish with ten feet long tentacles.”

Compared to recent expeditions to the sub-zero waters of the Arctic, the Great Lakes are a considerably less exotic location for medicine hunting. But they may hold the solution to tackling an ancient killer, a disease that has been the scourge of mankind for most of recent human history. In April, Murphy and his colleagues discovered two new chemicals, called diazaquinomycins H and J, from a bacterium living in the waters of Lake Michigan, just off the coast of Milwaukee. Although the research is still in the earliest stages, they work with surprising potency against even the most multi-drug resistant strains of tuberculosis. Mycobacterium tuberculosis is a bacterial infection that attacks the lungs. It originated in cattle before crossing over into humans around seven thousand years ago due to the increased milk consumption in our diets.

The discovery of antibiotics has kept tuberculosis largely under control for the past century, but the tides are turning with ominous speed. The emergence of new drug-resistant strains killed more than 210,000 worldwide in 2013 alone. Murphy is investigating whether his new anti-tuberculosis chemicals work in mice that have been infected with the disease. If they continue to be effective in treating tuberculosis, they may prove candidates for an early stage clinical trial. But this is just the start of a long and drawn out process which may still see them fall by the wayside just like so many promising medical discoveries over the past two decades.

***

The antibiotics that have protected us from an array of lethal microbes for more than half a century are rapidly becoming ineffective. And the blame rests entirely at our own door. Rampant, irresponsible overuse of these miracle drugs, to the extent that more than 63,000 tons globally are pumped into livestock production every year, has driven the evolution of a new breed of superbugs. Before long the world may be faced with a situation last seen in the pre-penicillin era when even the most minor infections, such as those resulting from a child’s grazed knee, could prove life-threatening, and every operation was fraught with danger. The annual death toll from bacterial infections is 700,000, according to the O’Neill review on Antimicrobial Resistance, a project commissioned by the British government. But many believe this figure to be a gross underestimate...It’s estimated that more people will die from bacterial infections than cancer by 2050. The trend was obvious. The conclusion in Uppsala was simple: The world needs to start developing new antibiotics, and fast.

But where will the money come from?

***

MORE

[Demeter]

8. We could have an economic boom this winter — if the Fed doesn't screw it up

http://www.vox.com/2015/11/6/9680584/case-against-december-rate-hike

The economy got some good news this morning in the form of a jobs report that witnessed 270,000 new positions in October, a continued decline in the unemployment rate, and year-over-year nominal wage growth of 2.5 percent — the fastest since 2009. The immediate reaction of traders on Wall Street was to believe that a Federal Reserve move to increase interest rates at its December meeting has become much more likely.

As a forecast, that may well be correct. Federal Reserve staffers and much of the Fed's Open Market Committee are clearly impatient to show the world that the economy is ready to live without zero interest rates as life support. But as a substantive move, December still looks way too early to many people — especially to those concerned with the problems of the poor and others on the margins of economic life.

Rather than looking at the relatively healthy labor market as an opportunity to raise interest rates, the Fed ought to look at the combination of low unemployment and low inflation as an opportunity to let the economy really roar...

[Demeter]

9. I'M BETTING THEY'LL SCREW IT UP

[Demeter]

10. Ed Lazear: This is the real unemployment rate

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/11/06/ed-lazear-this-is-the-real-unemployment-rate/

This guest post is by Edward Lazear, who was chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers from 2006-09 and is a professor at Stanford University’s Graduate School of Business.

The government announced Friday that October's unemployment rate stood at 5 percent, lower than it has been for two-thirds of the time since 2000. Many economists view rates around this level as full employment. Despite this, wages haven't been growing. The general sense is that the labor market is far from tight, and economic growth is weak. For these reasons, the Federal Reserve has resisted raising interest rates (though it may begin doing so in December).

Why the disconnect? As many fear, the unemployment rate may not be indicative of labor market strength. Indeed, other indicators of labor market activity, especially hiring, imply that the unemployment rate number comparable to past rates is actually around 6.3 percent. There are two measures of the employment situation. The most widely reported is the unemployment rate, which is defined as the proportion of the labor force that is without a job. To be in the labor force, a person must have a job or be actively seeking work. The other measure, which is generally preferred by many who study labor markets, is the employment rate, which is defined as the proportion of the working-age population (that is, 16 and above) that has a job. The employment rate is the bottom line because it measures the number actually working compared to the number who could work. But to the extent that failure to actively seek work is voluntary — for example, reflecting retirement or school attendance — taking that into account as the unemployment rate seems relevant to assessing the strength of the labor market. So which is right — the unemployment rate or the employment rate?

BIG EDIT


We have come back considerably from the depths of the recession that began almost eight years ago. Unfortunately, we still have a way to go. Given conditions that are consistent with an unemployment well above 6 percent -- and not a 5 percent unemployment rate -- it is no surprise that many in this economy still feel that we are not firing on all cylinders.

[Demeter]

11. US small business optimism unchanged in October

THAT BAD, EH?

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/10/us-small-business-optimism-unchanged-in-october.html



U.S. small business confidence was unchanged in October, with hiring stagnant even as more owners expected higher sales and more planned to make capital outlays, a survey released on Tuesday showed.

The National Federation of Independent Business said its Small Business Optimism Index was steady at 96.1 last month. "Although the labor market components posted minor declines, they held at historically strong levels, but this time owners reported no net growth in employment, a significant decline from reports in the previous four months," the NFIB said. Four of the 10 components of the index, including the share of owners planning to make capital outlays in the next three to six months, edged up one point. The share of small businesses expecting higher real sales rose three points after having fallen six points in September. Two components were unchanged while three fell, including the share of owners creating new jobs and those planning to increase inventories.

The U.S. government said last week payrolls outside the farm sector rose 271,000 in October, the largest increase in 10 months.

The NFIB report showed inflation pressures remained muted, with only a net 2 percent of owners raising their selling prices, up one point from September. "This is bad news for the Federal Reserve which is trying to stoke the flames of inflation in order to prevent deflation from setting in. For the rest of us, low inflation is good news," the NFIB said.

[Demeter]

12. Goldman: S&P 500 going nowhere so buy these stocks

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/09/goldman-sp-500-going-nowhere-so-buy-these-stocks.html

After an 11 percent rally by the S&P 500 in the last five weeks, Goldman Sachs told clients the index will be weak in the coming year, but there is still an investment strategy that can outperform.

The firm forecasts the S&P 500 will trade at 2,075 in 12 months, about where it is now.

"We expect stocks with high total cash returns will outperform in 2016," Goldman's David Kostin wrote in a note to clients Friday.

He added, "Although the Fed will be tightening, interest rates will remain low on a historical basis. The muted pace of economic expansion in the U.S., the uncertain prospects for global growth, and a low expected S&P 500 return, will leave investors searching for yield."

Kostin forecasts S&P 500 spending on return of capital to shareholders through stock buybacks and dividends will grow 7 percent to $1 trillion. In comparison, growth-oriented investments, which include capital expenditures, research and development, and cash acquisitions will only grow 3 percent, according to the firm. Consequently Goldman recommends investors buy stocks in its "total cash return basket." The basket is outperforming the S&P 500 by 1 percent this year and beat the market with 16 percent annual returns versus the benchmark's 10 percent since 1995. Moreover the basket currently trades at a valuation discount of 15 times earnings versus the market's 17 times.

SEE LINK FOR STOCKS

[Demeter]

13. Oil prices waver after IEA warns about OPEC’s strategy

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-rises-but-analyst-struggle-to-see-positive-catalysts-2015-11-10?siteid=yhoof2

Oil futures were moving in and out of negative territory on Tuesday as a top energy watchdog said the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to keep pumping could depress prices until the end of the decade. In its World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency said “a lasting switch in OPEC production strategy in favor of securing a higher share of the oil market mix” could keep the price of Brent crude at around $50 a barrel through to the end of the decade. Under a more bullish scenario, the IEA said oil could rebound to around $80 a barrel by 2020 as the oversupplied market begins to balance.

Brent was trading at $47.08 a barrel on Tuesday, down 0.2% on London’s ICE Futures exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading up 0.2% at $43.96 a barrel. Oil prices headed south last year after strong global supply was met with tepid demand. Despite the emerging glut, heavyweight producers from OPEC, including Saudi Arabia, have kept pumping crude at a high pace in a bid to defend — and gain — market share.

Market watchers expect OPEC will stick to that strategy and keep its output target unchanged at the organization’s next meeting on Dec. 4 in Vienna. Meanwhile, there are signs that Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest member, is taking the battle for market share to Europe. Riyadh has recently lowered its selling prices for Europe and started supplying crude to Sweden and Poland in a direct challenge to Russia, which sees Europe as one of its main markets.

“The announcement that Saudi Arabia was going to start supplying…Sweden represents a further escalation of the battle for market share under way,” said Seth Kleinman, analyst at Citi Research.

HMMM....

[Demeter]

14. Dollar holds tight against rivals as traders watch for next economic clues

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dollar-holds-tight-against-rivals-as-traders-watch-for-next-economic-clues-2015-11-10?siteid=YAHOOB

The dollar was trapped in a tight range against the yen and the euro Tuesday, with investors unwilling to take strong positions amid a lack of fresh trading incentives...

[Demeter]

15. Don Quijones: “First They Came for the Pennies…” in the War on Cash

http://wolfstreet.com/2015/11/07/first-they-came-for-the-pennies-in-the-war-on-cash/

The War on Cash is advancing on all fronts. One region that has hogged the headlines with its war against physical currency is Scandinavia. Sweden became the first country to enlist its own citizens as largely willing guinea pigs in a dystopian economic experiment: negative interest rates in a cashless society. As Credit Suisse reports, no matter where you go or what you want to purchase, you will find a small ubiquitous sign saying “Vi hanterar ej kontanter” (“We don’t accept cash”):

Whether it’s for mulled wine at the Christmas market, a beer at the bar, even the smallest charge is settled digitally. Even the homeless vendors of the street newspapers Faktum and Situation Stockholm carry mobile card readers.

A similar situation is unfolding in Denmark, where nearly 40% of the paying demographic use MobilePay, a Danske Bank app that allows all payments to be completed via smartphone. With more and more retailers rejecting physical money, a cashless society is “no longer an illusion but a vision that can be fulfilled within a reasonable time frame,” says Michael Busk-Jepsen, executive director of the Danish Bankers Association.

World’s Biggest Cashless Laboratory

While Sweden and Denmark may be the two nations that are closest to banning cash outright, the most important testing ground for cashless economics is half a world away, in sub-Saharan Africa. In many African countries, going cashless is not merely a matter of basic convenience (as it is in Scandinavia); it is a matter of basic survival. Less than 30% of the population have bank accounts, and even fewer have credit cards. But almost everyone has a mobile phone. Now, thanks to the massive surge in uptake of mobile communications as well as the huge numbers of unbanked citizens, Africa has become the perfect place for the world’s biggest social experiment with cashless living. Western NGOs and GOs (Government Organizations) are working hand-in-hand with banks, telecom companies and local authorities to replace cash with mobile money alternatives. The organizations involved include Citi Group, Mastercard, VISA, Vodafone, USAID, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. In Kenya the funds transferred by the biggest mobile money operator, M-Pesa (a division of Vodafone), account for more than 25% of the country’s GDP. In Africa’s most populous nation, Nigeria, the government launched a Mastercard-branded biometric national ID card, which also doubles up as a payment card. The “service” provides Mastercard with direct access to over 170 million potential customers, not to mention all their personal and biometric data. The company also recently won a government contract to design the Huduma Card, which will be used for paying State services. For Mastercard these partnerships with government are essential for achieving its lofty vision of creating a “world beyond cash.”

A New Frontier

In India an even more ambitious project is under way: the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI), which aims to create a centralized voter enrolment system for 1.2 billion people. It will be the largest identity platform and biometric database in the world. There’s only one snag: according to its creators, the only way to make the system work effectively will be through the widespread adoption of electronic payment systems, side by side, as always, with biometric recognition systems. Given that cash is still king on the subcontinent, the government may have its work cut out. Finance minister Arun Jaitley has repeatedly underscored the need to transform India into a cashless economy, supposedly to “rein in the problem of black money.” However, with its huge informal economy, India remains the largest producer and consumer of currency notes after China (as well as the biggest consumer of gold).

Here’s more from India’s Financial Express:

Currently less than 5% of all payments are done electronically. Results from the ICE 360 Cash Survey 2014 show that cash is the preferred mode of payment even in Delhi, the most affluent and developed metropolis. Nearly 73% of all purchases by Delhi consumers are paid for in cash and only 17% by card.

Naturally the Indian government will do all it can to change this situation. In an article in the Daily Mail Nandan Nilekani, one of the technocrats behind UIDAI, urges the government to lead the way. “The government must be the initial driver, using the heft and reach of its social security schemes to drive the adoption of an electronic payments model,” Nilekani asserts. “As momentum grows, private players can step in.” Those private players will no doubt include banks. After all, in a world where every transaction – or at least every “official” transaction – must be electronic, the power of banks over individuals is likely to dramatically increase, as Brett Scott warns in an article for The Guardian:

With this comes the specter of bank surveillance, where every transaction you ever partake in is authorized and recorded by a privately run commercial bank, giving it a transaction-by-transaction history of your entire commercial life. If such a bank does not like an enterprise – such as Wikileaks – it can just freeze it out.

The New Cost of Doing Business

An oft-overlooked benefit of cash transactions is that there is no intermediary. One party pays the other party in mutually accepted currency and not a single middleman gets to wet his beak. In a cashless society there will be nothing stopping banks or other financial mediators from taking a small piece of every single transaction. They would also be able to use – and potentially abuse – the massive deposits of data they collect on their customers’ payment behavior. This information is of huge interest and value to retail marketing departments, other financial institutions, insurance companies, governments, secret services, and a host of other organizations.

Another very important perk of cash is that it significantly limits central banks’ ability to continue conducting arguably the greatest financial heist of the modern age, i.e., negative interest rate policy (NIRP). The only way that central banks can maintain negative interest rates ad infinitum is by abolishing cash altogether, as the Bank of England chief economist Andrew Hadlaine all but admitted. As long as cash exists, there’s no way of preventing depositors from doing the logical thing – i.e. taking their money out of the bank and parking it where the erosive effects of NIRP can’t reach it.

So in order to save a financial system that is morally beyond the pale and stopped serving the basic needs of the real economy a long time ago, governments and central banks must do away with the last remaining thing that gives people a small semblance of privacy, anonymity, and personal freedom in their increasingly controlled and surveyed lives.

The biggest tragedy of all is that the governments and banks’ strongest ally in their War on Cash is the general public itself. As long as people continue to abandon the use of cash, for the sake of a few minor gains in convenience, the war on cash is already won.

[Demeter]

16. It's definitely November: cold, gray and rainy

High of 50F today. Stay warm and dry, y'all.

[Demeter]

17. follow up on retirement savings schemes

[DemReadingDU]

18. Neel Kashkari Named New Minneapolis Fed President

11/10/15 Neel Kashkari Named New Minneapolis Fed President
Ex-TARP chief brings experience as an engineer, banker, government official and politician to the position

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has named former banker, government official and unsuccessful California gubernatorial candidate Neel Kashkari to become its new president and chief executive officer.

He’ll succeed Narayana Kocherlakota, who leaves office at the end of the year. Mr. Kashkari, 42, is slated to take office on Jan. 1, 2016, the bank plans to announce Tuesday.

Mr. Kashkari’s views on central bank interest-rate policy are not publicly known. He’s not an economist, beginning his career as an aerospace engineer working on space missions before earning an M.B.A. at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. He’s an alumni of investment bank Goldman Sachs and investment fund Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco.

Mr. Kashkari rose to public prominence as a member of President George W. Bush’s administration by running the government’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program—a controversial effort aimed at stabilizing the financial system by pumping capital into banks during the 2008 financial crisis. Critics called the program an improper intrusion by the government into private enterprise and an unfair bailout of big banks.

more...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/neel-kashkari-to-be-named-new-minneapolis-fed-president-1447170684?mod=djemalertMARKET

[Fuddnik]

19. Another incompetent boob.

[Demeter]

20. If this was intended as a joke, it isn't very funny. Is WSJ happy with it?

There is no way anyone can say he's qualified for the post. Anyone associated with W is tainted to begin with.

[antigop]

21. oh, he's qualified all right...nt

[DemReadingDU]

22. Not a joke, n/t