As QE Wanes, Real Costs of “Employment” Subsidies Surface

[marmar]

By Erinç Yeldan, Dean of the faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences at Yasar University and an executive director of the International Development Economics Associates (IDEAs), New Delhi. Originally published at Triple Crisis


Global finance centers have been holding their breath for almost a year by now: will the U.S. Federal Reserve (the “Fed”) finally start “tapering” off from its monetary expansion programs, known as quantitative easing (QE)? By way of three QE operations, the Fed had amassed a total of $3 trillion worth of assets from the financial markets over a course of less than four years. This was equal to roughly 20% of U.S. GDP. In turn, interest rates fell all around the globe to virtually zero. While short-term low-risk interest rates in the United States fell to zero, interest rates in some countries remained much higher, so large interest rate spreads emerged between the United States and other countries. Notable “carry trade” emerged, for this reason, between the U.S. and Brazil; and yet, unemployment only slowly fell back to the pre-recession period, despite the fact that the labor force participation rate declined sharply to its 1970s level.

Now, seeing the expansion of the monetary base barely made a dent in stimulating real productive activity (see my January 2015 Triple Crisis blog post), the Fed declared in early Spring that “from now on it will be patiently waiting to start raising its policy interest rate and quitting QE operations.” This means bad news for global finance capital, which was drugged with the inflow of cheap liquidity, with zero credit costs.

Now that the financial smoke is clearing, we are in a better position to see the real costs of public programs aimed of stimulating employment and real activity.


As a response to rising global unemployment during the Great Recession, many countries introduced direct and indirect incentive packages to cover labor costs. These often took the form of reducing and covering the employer share of social security taxes, tax breaks, publicly financed reduced-hours programs, and other public support programs. The costs of these employment subsidies were measured in multi billions dollars, and yet their beneficiaries had been mostly big corporations such as McDonalds and Walmart, which already profited handsomely from low wages. In return, employment gains had been meager at best, while the subsidy costs were borne by the public sector. .................(more)

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2015/08/as-qe-wanes-real-costs-of-employment-subsidies-surface.html