Dr. Housing Bubble 04/07/15

[Crewleader]

The death of the new home market: First time buyers, reaching the edge of affordability, and investor disruption.

Given every headline we have seen over the last few years you would think that home builders would be out in droves adding new supply to the market. What building is occurring is focused on multi-family units to cater to the trend of rental Armageddon. The new home market does well when the economy is recovering evenly and wages are moving up across the board. New home sales come with a heftier sticker price and most investors are interested in deals, not marked up new homes. But prices are pushing up in most metro areas and rents are steadily moving up. Yet this push is more of a constraint of investor demand for existing homes and not regular families competing with one another as was the case for a few generations. That is why the homeownership rate of today is what it was back in 1984, over 30 years ago. It is also the reason why new home sales are pathetically low. The new home sale market is really the place to look at for a true housing recovery for the masses and nothing is really happening there.

New home sales

Looking at new home sales we realize that the hunger for new homes is near all-time lows. Why? For one, new homes carry a higher price tag and also, investors and flippers have little demand for these. New homes usually push the higher range of a market and are designed for the regular home buyer. Of course this category of buyer is fully tapped out of the market.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/new-home-market-death-first-time-buyers-new-home-purchases/

[still_one]

1. In Northern and Southern California housing is quite unaffordable

[Sherman A1]

2. One wonders, at what point

have we built enough housing for the overall market? How much of an affect does the aging boomers who are staying in place, downsizing and retiring have on the equation? This coupled with the inability of follow on generations to secure decent paying jobs can have only one affect on the market for new homes and that would be a negative one to be sure.

[Nay]

5. We certainly haven't built enough of the right kind of house, that's for sure. Many families

starting out would like to own a small house in a good neighborhood, but neighborhoods with small houses are all OLDER neighborhoods with houses cheap enough for some serious riff-raff to buy. When I say 'riff-raff,' I mean the sorts of people you don't want around your kids. So people who would have been happy with a small house somewhere nice can't get that, if they value their kids' future. I'd love to have a new small house in a good neighborhood, but I'd have to custom build.

[Nay]

3. Frankly, as a retired boomer, I'd love to downsize into a smaller NEW house, but

they aren't building any in decent areas of town! They are all McMansions, which we don't want. Sure, I could buy a 55+ condo, but that's not what we want, either. And we can't really afford to build our own small house on a lot.

[Warpy]

4. At this point, I'm thinking seriously about downsizing back into a trailer

If lot rental terms in parks were at all favorable, I'd do it in a heartbeat: get a very livable house with every square inch planned on a tiny lot well within my ability to care for. Unfortunately, the rentals go month to month, management varies widely even from year to year in the same park, and the cost of moving should the park be sold to a developer is astronomical.

Trailers were the original tiny houses, well planned small spaces that can be quite comfortable. If you can find parks with decent terms, that would be the way to go.

[mother earth]

6. It really boils down to jobs and job security. One really can't consider investing in a home,

until one feels a certainty about ability to finance the mortgage & upkeep. It's no mystery. We are NOT in recovery without jobs.