STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Monday, 16 March 2015

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday, 16 March 2015[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 13 March 2015

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 13 March 2015
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Dow Jones 17,749.31
S&P 500 2,053.40
[font color=green]Nasdaq 4,871.76


[font color=red]10 Year 2.12% +0.01 (0.47%)
[font color=black]30 Year 2.70% 0.00 (0.00%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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Market Updates
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
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William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts







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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. That Jackass is holding a mighty short list

but what can one expect from our nominative party?

[Demeter]

2. Is Greece Planning to Print Energy?

http://www.fromfilmerstofarmers.com/blog/2015/march/is-greece-planning-to-print-energy/

...No fossil fuels, no "mid-20th century industrial societies." In other words, what's going on (in Greece) isn't just another juvenile left-versus-right debate-class game. Because the fact of the matter is that thanks to peak oil we've now entered the early stages of a world that is smacking up against the limits to growth. Simply put, since the world's supply of conventional oil (that under the ground and deserts) peaked in 2005, and since conventional plus unconventional supplies of oil (the former plus tar sands, fracking, and deep sea oil) are all about to peak as well, the world simply doesn't have the energy required to power the continuation of economic growth. With growth slowing down in some places and even reversing into contraction, this means that there is less economic activity to create revenues to pay off debts. Greece just happens to be one of the first losers in this game of musical chairs, also known as triage from modernity and the industrial economy. Why might Greece be a deindustrializing vanguard?



First off, and unlike a "Northern European country" such as Norway, Greece doesn't have abundant supplies of oil to power its modern industrial economy, nor to sell on the open market to pay for imports (or to pay off debts). Secondly, unlike Japan (which has barely any domestic supplies of fossil fuels either), exports of baklava don't quite bring in the revenue that Hondas and Nintendos do, and being part of the eurozone, Greece can't print out yen (or euros in its case) to paper over all its problems and convey the illusion of solvency. (That being said, Norway and Japan will soon enough be losing out in the musical chairs game as well: crashing oil prices are already hitting some in Norway hard and are a sign of things to come; and when the world can no longer afford high-tech Japanese toys, Japan is going to be in a world of pain which no yen sorcery will be able to paper over and which will make the Greek situation look like a case of the chickenpox.)

Unfortunately, and as all appearances indicate, Syriza is under just as much of a mass delusion as Truthdig is. As Greek finance minister (and former academic on game theory) Yanis Varoufakis stated in a New York Times opinion piece before Syriza's election win, he wants to "bring back growth," to "table our proposals for regrowing Greece," and that there will be "[n]o more loans – not until we have a credible plan for growing the economy in order to repay those loans [and] help the middle class get back on its feet." Again, this is utter nonsense. Unless Varoufakis and company are on the one hand trying to pull a fast one on the Troika, or on the other hand trying to fool the Greek electorate, then it appears that Syriza is just as much of a band of deluded fools as the ones whose offices they took over, and that Varoufakis' New York Times piece is nothing but a game theorist trying to take game theory to the next level and so game theory-theory other game theorists. Since, as already mentioned, growth is now over, similar talk about securing Greece a "new deal" is just as ridiculous. In a time of booming growth, sure, it could be possible, but when growth is stagnating the world over – even in China, and even in Germany – foreign lenders aren't about to sacrifice their middle-class creature comforts so that Greeks can have back their middle-class creature comforts thank you very much. Regardless of that though, if Syriza were to implement a default on Greece's loans and unilaterally pull off its Grexit from the eurozone, it could thus free itself from the Euro straightjacket and enable itself to reissue and print as many new drachmas as it likes, even Greenback-styles, via the government and not private banks. However, not only would a new drachma crash in value the moment it was released, and not only could there be a line-up of unscrupulous and pissed off former creditors itching to take revenge on the newly issued currency, but who in their right mind is going to want to sell oil to Greece for depreciated drachmas, particularly when all they're likely to get in return for the depreciated currency are container ships of said baklava?

However, even though discussions about money and currency provide plenty of fodder for pundits on the payroll, money has essentially nothing to do with the current problems in Greece. As I explained in my previous post,

the core function of money is that it enables us to command energy – the energy used to move our bodies with, to power our machines, to feed to domesticated animals whose energy we then use to do work (which nowadays generally means entertaining us), etc. In other words, it might be tough and/or inconvenient, but one can get by without money. You can't get by without energy.

In other words, what Greece needs in order to revive its growth, its middle-class creature comforts, its "European social contract" and "mainstream policies of mid-20th century industrial societies," and the rest of all that claptrap, is oil. Greece isn't short on money. It is short on energy...



I THINK THIS ARGUMENT IS TOO SIMPLISTIC TO BE OF ANY USE. THE PROBLEM IS AT HEART POLITICAL. THE ECONOMICS CAN WORK ITSELF OUT, EVEN THE ENERGY PART.

[Demeter]

3. Shocking! The ECB Has Now Doubled Its Lending To Greece

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-15/shocking-ecb-has-now-doubled-its-lending-greece

It must be quite busy at the ECB’s headquarters in Frankfurt these days as not only did the ECB kick off its first (official) round of Quantitative Easing, it’s still front-running on Greece’s rescue. In its Q&A session with journalists, ECB president Mario Draghi confirmed the ECB has stepped up its efforts to keep Greece in the Eurozone, as it has roughly doubled its lending in just 6-8 weeks time. This means that since Syriza has won the Greek elections in January, the ECB had to step in to save the Greek economy and financial system from collapsing.

This seems to show the ECB is willing to go far, very far, to keep the Eurozone united (and Greece in) as the ECB’s lending to the country is now at a stunning 68% of the GDP. On top of that, Greece wanted to be included in the ECB’s Quantitative Easing program, but Draghi has now explicitly excluded the purchase of Greek bonds as long as the threshold of 33% has been breached and the ECB will NOT be allowed to purchase Greek bonds before July/August.

The Greek situation remains extremely dire, as the ECB confessed it once again had to increase the allowed amount of the Emergency Lending Assistance to Greece by another half billion Euros. The jury’s still out on Cyprus as well as the country needs to get the thumbs up from the Troika in its fifth review.

The markets have been jubilant after the QE started earlier this week (and roughly 10B EUR has already been purchased, pushing for instance the Spanish 10 year yield to below 1% (!) ) and the value of the Euro is crumbling fast. When analysts were predicting an Euro-Dollar parity last year, almost the entire financial world was shaking its head in disbelief, but at an exchange rate of 1.07 (meaning the Euro lost approximately 15% of its value in just 3 month) that scenario is suddenly extremely realistic.



It gets even more interesting now as more voices are expressing their expectations to see the Euro lose another 20% to reach a value of 0.85 EUR per Dollar. That’s quite interesting as such a weak Euro would indeed be excellent to jump-start the economy again, but on the negative side, the American export markets would start to collapse. It would be much cheaper for foreign consumers to purchase European products compared to American products. Who do you think will either be able to sell more planes or to book a higher profit at a EUR/USD exchange rate of 0.85, Boeing or Airbus?

The expensive dollar makes it tougher for Europeans to buy stuff denominated in US Dollars. Plane tickets are much more expensive – despite the falling oil price and the purchase power of almost every European citizen will be undermined by either the strong US Dollar. On top of that, if the ECB is indeed able to increase the inflation rate again, citizens of the Eurozone will see their purchasing power erode at an even faster pace.



And guess what once again proves to be an excellent asset to protect yourself from losing purchasing power? Indeed, gold. As you can see on the previous chart owning gold would have protected any consumer in the Eurozone as an ounce of gold has kept its value. Forget about the naysayers who say gold is useless, as it has proven its value dozens of times now.

[Demeter]

4. Four Central Banks Meet but FOMC is Key

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-03-15/four-central-banks-meet-fomc-key

The most important event next week is the FOMC meeting followed by a press conference by Yellen. In order to maximize its room to maneuver, we expect the FOMC statement will drop the patience that has characterized its forward guidance since last December. This represents an evolution in the Fed's strategy to normalize monetary policy. They have reduced the time of their forward guidance from around six months (considerable period) to two meetings (patience). Yellen more or less executed the strategy that Bernanke outlined for tapering. Shifting away from the date-dependent approach to the data-dependent is under Yellen's leadership. The Fed's biggest concern with the shift is that the markets will misinterpret this as a sign of an imminent hike. As she did in her Congressional testimony, we expect Yellen to explain that this is not the case. Indeed the next FOMC meeting April 28-29 and there is practically no chance of a hike then. However, the June meeting, which is followed by a press conference, is a different story.

We continue to see June as the most likely time frame for lift-off, but recognize the risk of a short delay, as the Fed did when it began the tapering in December 2013 instead of September as many expected. The data-dependency comes down to largely two considerations. First is the continued improvement in the labor market, broadly understood. Second, is that the FOMC has to be confident that inflation will rise toward 2% in the medium term...Many participants recognize that the labor market is indeed healing. It is the second condition that seems to be more troubling. Yet this is precisely what the FOMC statement said at the last meeting: "Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of lower energy prices and other factors dissipate."

If the Fed does not drop the word patience, expectations of a June hike will ease considerably. This would likely spur a dollar correction and a rally in US stocks and bonds. If the Fed drops the word patience but softens this inflation expectation, this would also be a dovish development and weigh on the dollar and lift stocks and bonds. We advise investors to pay little heed to the dot plots, which seem to be a failed exercise in transparency thus far. We understand that at least some Fed officials are also frustrated with the dot plots but cannot simply be eliminated. We would advise replacing the dot plot with press conferences after every meeting, like the ECB and BOJ. This would also help maximize the Fed's flexibility by preventing gaming Fed actions at meeting in which there is a press conference schedule, as well as improve transparency, and enhance the Fed’s communication. Yellen has said that the Fed could call a press conference at any time. This is a bit disingenuous. For example, if the Fed does not raise rates in June, and calls for a press conference for its July meeting at which there was not one scheduled, the market would quickly guess what was about to be announced.



Another concern many investors have regards the dollar's strength. Even the longstanding dollar bulls like ourselves, have been surprised the speed of its ascent. Yet this is unlikely to deter the Fed for several reasons:

1. Several Fed officials have recognized that part of the dollar's rise is anticipation of a rate hike.

2. Given the ECB and BOJ's monetary policy, there is a risk that the dollar continues to appreciate. A delay in hiking now may only force the Fed to raise rates later when the dollar is even stronger.

3. Unlike Germany and China that export around 40% of everything they produce, US exports less than 15% of GDP.

4. As Yellen explained in response to a question during her recent testimony, the international variables, which include foreign exchange, oil and world demand, are broadly balanced. The dollar's appreciation has been largely offset, for example, by the decline in oil prices.



Three other major central banks meet next week. In order of likelihood of action, we list them as Norges Bank, the Swiss National Bank, and the Bank of Japan. Norway's macro fundamentals are constructive. Unemployment is around 3%. CPI is up just about 2% year-over-year, and 2.4% when adjusted for taxes and energy is excluding. The mainland economy expanded by 0.5% in Q4 14. These readings would be the envy of most high income countries. Yet signals from the central bank have encouraged the investors to anticipate a 25 bp cut in the deposit rate to 1.0%. The high expectations warn of the greatest risk of disappointment as well...MORE

[DemReadingDU]

5. Pensions drastically reduce because of 'miscalculations'

reposting from the weekend thread

AARP March 2015
Ed Cochran's weathered hands began to tremble as he read the letter from his union pension plan. "We made a terrible mistake," it began. The June 2013 letter said he was overpaid for nearly two decades, to the tune of $97,000, including interest. It demanded that he repay $66,000 within three weeks or face steep cuts to future payments until the overage was recouped.
"I thought I was going to have a heart attack, truly. My heart jumped right out of my chest," says Cochran, 65. His pension payout dropped from more than $1,300 a month to $800. "I thought, how could this be possible? It was 18 years that this went on," says the retiree, who installed ductwork in Chicago high-rises for a living. "After freezing and working in below-zero temperatures, it was just devastating."
In Cochran's case, Illinois' Sheet Metal Workers Union Local 73 pension fund erroneously overpaid him and 588 others by a whopping $5.2 million between 1974 and 2004. In 2013, nearly a decade after it discovered the errors during an audit, the plan sent letters to the retirees informing them of the miscalculation and seeking return of the overpayment — along with 7.25 percent interest.

Perry Kinard, 76, was sick with worry after he was notified of a pension overpayment. The retired New York City transit worker still bears the scars on his chest, and a bullet in his head, from thugs he encountered on the job. A man stabbed him in the lung in 1978 as he mopped the stairs at a subway station. In 1990, another man shot him in the head on a subway platform. He retired on disability at age 54.
Today Kinard is struggling to adjust to his $5-a-month pension — reduced from $1,414 after the New York City Employee Retirement System (NYCERS) said it had overpaid him $163,423 over 22 years. It said his disability pension should have been offset by his workers' compensation payments. It withheld all but $5 a month to recoup the excess payments.
"It's like I worked all my life for nothing," he says. "They took everything from me."

Millions Could See Cuts
Tucked into the massive budget bill passed by Congress in December was a provision permitting certain financially troubled multiemployer pension plans to cut existing benefits potentially to hundreds of thousands of retirees who are under age 80.

more...
http://www.aarp.org/work/retirement-planning/info-2015/take-your-pension-away.1.html

[mother earth]

10. TY for reposting, missed it the first go round, this is beyond outrageous. nt

[Demeter]

6. What is this "Long Run" Everybody Talks About?

[Demeter]

7. TICK, TICK, TICK U.S. expands measures to buy time under debt limit

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/03/13/us-usa-fiscal-idINKBN0M927B20150313

The Obama administration on Friday said it would expand emergency accounting measures to keep paying the nation's bills after the government hits a legal debt limit on borrowing next week.

In a letter to congressional leaders, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said the government would be at the statutory limit beginning on Monday.

Beginning that day, the Treasury will suspend investments in two government pension funds, Lew said. The Treasury on Friday suspended issuance of state and local government series securities, known as "slugs."

Together, the measures allow the Treasury to continue borrowing from investors at weekly auctions.

[Demeter]

8. SURPRISE! SURPRISE! BP signs $12 billion energy deal in Egypt

NEVER LET A LITTLE DEMOCRACY GET IN THE WAY OF THE OIL BIDNESS....SQUASH IT LIKE A COCKROACH!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/14/us-egypt-economy-investment-bp-idUSKBN0MA0EK20150314

Oil company BP has signed an agreement to invest $12 billion in Egypt that will produce 3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, a joint statement from the company and the government said on Saturday.

The deal, finalised at an international investment conference in the Sharm El-Sheikh resort, will help Egypt as it tackles its worst energy crisis in decades.

The agreement will include a West Nile Delta project, exploration and resource appraisal activities, East Nile Delta operations and operations in the Gulf of Suez.

Rising energy consumption and decreasing production have turned Egypt from a net energy exporter to a net importer in the last few years and caused persistent blackouts.

IN A COUNTRY WITH PERPETUAL SUNSHINE, THERE ARE PERSISTENT BLACKOUTS; SOMEBODY GET ME A TRANQUILIZER, STAT!

[Demeter]

9. All the snowdrops are uncovered...over 3 dozen!

Boy, do they look cold and foolish...It's rumored to hit 70F today, and then barely 45F tomorrow...thus guaranteeing that the peach tree will bear no fruit again. Sigh

Mud season has begun, but not the rainy season. It's all snowmelt, and even after two weeks of this, there's still snow lying around.

We are having a special election in May to change the State Constitution and raise the sales tax from 6 to 7%, the excuse is paying for road repairs, but it will be used for everything,every little impulse purchase by the legislature...

They couldn't be bothering the Rich by taxing them. NO, they want to go increase the most regressive tax in the state....so that the poor are sucked dry and die if they haven't the means to move out.