STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Friday, 6 February 2015

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, 6 February 2015[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 5 February 2015

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 5 February 2015
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Dow Jones 17,884.88 +211
S&P 500 2,062.52 +21
Nasdaq 4,765.10 +48.39 (1.03%)


[font color=green]10 Year 1.83% +0.01 (0.55%)
30 Year 2.43% +0.04 (1.67%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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Market Updates
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
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Yahoo Finance
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
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Brad DeLong
Bonddad
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
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Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts







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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. Go ahead, milkmaids. Knock yourselves out.

(a little barnyard humor there)

There's a 3 ft long icicle of Damocles hanging outside my window this evening. The bright sun did an excellent job of clearing the pavement, so Thursday's driving was much better than it's been all week.

The temperature at 7:30 PM is 13F, windchill of 5F, for those of you far removed from the season....and it should warm up to freezing over the weekend, not dropping until Sunday night.

The Kid has ripped the zipper in her new winter coat to shreds, and I am going to be replacing it...so I need a theme for the weekend. I had an idea, but didn't write it down...

I traced it back! How about going to Havana for a Spring break...and visiting the Castro brothers? We'll even dig up Ricky Ricardo, if necessary.

See you after the zipper is done!

[Hugin]

12. Ahh... It's nice to see Capitalism and the Free Market at work.

Look at those guys scramble! Go get that carrot boys! lol

I shall have Dithers show that graphic to the staff here at my mansion. They so need mirth in their dreary lives.

[kickysnana]

14. How out of the mainstream is Minnesota?

I was astonished when they listed Desi Arnez as one the first "colored people" to have his own show.

So people elsewhere lump a whole bunch of people into "colored" so they can treat them very badly. How very sad and limiting.

[xchrom]

2. It sure smells like Switzerland is intervening in the currency market

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-rise-in-swiss-forex-reserves-suggests-snb-still-curbing-franc-2015-2

ZURICH (Reuters) - Switzerland's foreign exchange reserves hit a record high in January, data showed, suggesting its central bank is still actively curbing the franc with interventions one researcher estimated at close to 2 billion francs per day.

The figures are the first to show changes in the Swiss National Bank's currency holdings since it surprised financial markets in mid-January by scrapping its more than three-year-old cap of 1.20 francs against the euro.

The SNB later said maintaining that policy would have cost 100 billion francs ($109 billion) to defend in January alone.

But Friday's reserves data suggested that, even without the cap, the bank spent more than half that sum last month keeping a lid on the franc, according to calculations by Ralf Wiedenmann, head of economic research at Vontobel Asset Management.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-rise-in-swiss-forex-reserves-suggests-snb-still-curbing-franc-2015-2#ixzz3QxzTUKQ1

[xchrom]

3. Markets are ticking higher in Asia

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-asian-shares-tread-cautiously-ahead-of-us-payrolls-2015-2

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares edged higher in early trade on Friday and oil prices continued to rebound, even as investors remained wary ahead of the key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for January later in the session.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up about 0.1 percent. Japan's Nikkei stock average percent rose 1 percent in early trade.

On Wall Street on Thursday, major indexes all ended with gains of 1 percent or more, and a corresponding rise in U.S. Treasury yields underpinned the U.S. dollar's lift against rivals.

Economists polled by Reuters expected U.S. employers to add 234,000 workers in January, below December's increase of 252,000. The jobless rate was expected to remain at a 6-1/2 year low of 5.6 percent, while average hourly earnings was estimated to show a rise of 0.3 percent following the previous month's surprise 0.2 percent drop.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-asian-shares-tread-cautiously-ahead-of-us-payrolls-2015-2#ixzz3Qy0Eb2ym

[xchrom]

4. GLOBAL STOCKS SOFT AHEAD OF US JOBS DATA; OIL PRICES RALLY

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-02-06-05-18-32

KEEPING SCORE: In Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.2 percent to 6,850 while Germany's DAX dropped 0.6 percent to 10,835. France's CAC 40 fell 0.4 percent to 4,687. U.S. stocks were poised for a solid opening, with Dow futures and the broader S&P 500 futures up 0.2 percent.

US JOBS FOCUS: How U.S. markets open will largely hinge on the monthly nonfarm payrolls figures, which are released an hour before the Wall Street bell. Economists estimate that employers added 230,000 jobs in January, down from 252,000 in December. While some analysts say that the data will not be a game changer, the Federal Reserve has emphasized the job market recovery as an important factor when it considers a rate hike. The dollar could be a key mover in the wake of the figures. Ahead of the data, it was flat, with the euro unchanged at $1.1465 and the dollar down 0.2 percent at 117.27 yen.

ANALYST TAKE: "Anything too high has the potential to push the Fed into rate hikes sooner than had been expected, whilst a weak print could be interpreted as confirmation that the U.S. economic recovery is now stalling," said Tony Cross, market analyst at Trustnet Direct.

GREECE MEETING: Greece also remains a key focus in financial markets as the new Greek government tries to forge a new deal on the country's debts with its partners in the 19-country eurozone. On Friday, it was confirmed that the finance ministers of the so-called Eurogroup are to hold a special meeting next Wednesday to discuss Greece's debts, a day ahead of a summit of European Union leaders. Greek shares were down Friday amid ongoing jitters over how the discussions will pan out - the main Athens index was down 1 percent.

OIL REBOUND: Oil prices extended their gains Friday, with the benchmark New York rate up $1.55 at $52.03 a barrel. Brent, the international standard, was up $1.60 at $58.19 a barrel. "Oil prices appear to have formed a base for the time being," said Fawad Razaqzada, a technical analyst at Forex.com.

ASIA'S DAY: Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.8 percent to 17,648.50 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng was down 0.4 percent to 24,679.39. South Korea's Kospi added 0.1 percent to 1,955.52 and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.2 percent to 5,820.20.

[xchrom]

5. EURO FINANCE MINISTERS TO DISCUSS GREECE AHEAD OF EU SUMMIT

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_GREECE_EUROGROUP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-02-06-07-09-32

BRUSSELS (AP) -- The finance ministers of the 19-country eurozone are to hold a special meeting next Wednesday to discuss Greece's debts, a day ahead of a summit of European Union leaders.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the head of the so-called eurogroup, said Friday that the meeting will center on Greece, which is back in the spotlight after the anti-austerity Syriza swept to power less than two weeks ago in a general election.

Syriza topped the vote with its promise to bring an end to Greece's years-long austerity. In return for rescue cash from its partners in the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, successive Greek governments have had to impose a raft of spending cuts and tax increases which have stifled the country's economy.

Though the Greek economy has emerged from a brutal six-recession, the country remains burdened by its debts, which stand at over 170 percent of Greece's annual GDP.

[xchrom]

6. UK REPORT ACCUSES PWC OF TAX AVOIDANCE ON INDUSTRIAL SCALE

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_BRITAIN_TAX?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-02-06-06-52-52

LONDON (AP) -- A British parliamentary committee has accused the accounting firm PwC of promoting tax avoidance on an industrial scale, and called for the government to step in and do more to regulate the tax industry.

The Public Accounts Committee says in a scathing report Friday that PwC mass-marketed tax avoidance plans, diverting profits to Luxembourg through intra-company loans.

Committee chair Margaret Hodge says "the effect has been to reduce the amount of corporation tax that some multinational companies pay in the countries in which they make their profits."

The committee says the plans show the "government needs to take a more active role in regulating the tax industry, as it evidently cannot be trusted."

[xchrom]

7. US TRADE DEFICIT JUMPS 17.1 PERCENT TO $46.6 BILLION

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_TRADE_GAP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-02-05-15-04-30

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. trade deficit in December jumped to the highest level in more than two years as exports fell and Americans bought a record amount of imports - a potentially worrisome development that could weigh on overall economic growth.

The deficit jumped 17.1 percent to $46.6 billion in December, resulting in the biggest imbalance since November 2012, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The widening trade gap reflected a drop in exports, which retreated 0.8 percent to $194.9 billion. Meanwhile, imports soared 2.2 percent to $241.4 billion.

Economists were split on the implications of the bigger-than-expected December trade deficit. The government estimated last week that the overall economy grew at a moderate 2.6 percent rate in the final three months of 2014 after turning in a sizzling 5 percent growth rate in the July-September period.

Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Markets, said he believed much of the December trade data was already reflected in the first GDP report released last week.

[xchrom]

8. Natural Gas Shale Drillers Undaunted by 32% Price Plunge

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/natural-gas-shale-drillers-undaunted-by-32-price-plunge


(Bloomberg) -- U.S. natural gas production is poised to reach a record for a fifth year as shale drillers boost efficiency, driving prices toward a low of more than a decade.

Output will rise 3.2 percent in 2015, led by gains at the Marcellus formation, the nation’s biggest shale deposit, according to the Energy Information Administration. Marcellus production will increase 2.8 percent through February after a 21 percent gain in 2014, a year when prices tumbled 32 percent. Producers in Pennsylvania and West Virginia have cut break-even costs by half since 2008, according to Oppenheimer & Co.

Drilling more wells at one site and extending the length of horizontal wells are among the efficiencies that have helped gas companies cope with falling prices. The EIA expects Marcellus to climb to about 20 percent of production in the lower 48 states from about 2 percent in 2007. Cabot Oil & Gas Corp., the biggest Marcellus producer, plans to increase output by at least 20 percent this year.

“The Marcellus has been a game changer in terms of production, reserve potential, everything,” said Fadel Gheit, a senior energy analyst for Oppenheimer & Co. in New York. “They are not waiting for higher gas prices to bail them out.”

[xchrom]

9. Spanish Bonds Underperform Italy’s as Podemos Gains Popularity

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/spanish-bonds-underperform-italy-s-as-podemos-gains-popularity

(Bloomberg) -- Spain’s bonds are set to underperform their Italian peers for the fifth time in six weeks amid concern the rise of a Spanish anti-austerity party will lead to the sort of turmoil that followed Syriza’s victory in Greece.

Podemos, which has pledged to restructure $1.1 trillion of Spanish public debt, widened its lead over Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s People’s Party, according to a survey this week by the state polling company. By contrast in Italy, itself no stranger to political upheaval, Sergio Mattarella, a candidate backed by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi, was elected president on Saturday. That marked a victory for the Italian premier who overcame tensions within the governing coalition.

“The reason for Spain underpeforming Italy is totally related to investors’ concerns about the political landscape, in relation to what is going on in Greece,” said Luca Cazzulani, a senior fixed-income strategist at UniCredit SpA in Milan. “It’s something that will probably carry on in the near term. The link investors will make is that the next country with a strong anti-austerity movement will be Spain.”

The yield on Spanish 10-year bonds was little changed at 1.45 percent as of 10:23 a.m. London time, set to end the week higher by three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point. The yield on similar Italian bonds was headed for a four-basis-point decrease, to 1.55 percent, since Jan. 30.

[xchrom]

10. Deflation Risk in U.S. Seen Rivaling Euro Area: Chart of the Day

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-06/deflation-risk-in-u-s-seen-rivaling-euro-area-chart-of-the-day



(Bloomberg) -- Deflation would be as much of an issue for the U.S. as it is for the euro region if consumer prices were tracked the same way, according to Albert Edwards, a global strategist at Societe Generale SA.

The CHART OF THE DAY helps illustrate how Edwards drew his conclusion, presented in a report yesterday. He tracked changes in the core U.S. consumer-price index, which excludes food and energy, and the CPI for shelter.

Core inflation in December was 1.6 percent, according to the Labor Department. That’s 0.9 percentage point more than the euro region’s comparable figure, as compiled by Eurostat. This gap disappears after bringing the U.S. figure into line with Eurostat’s definition of housing, Edwards wrote.

“The deflationary fault line on which the U.S. sits is every bit as precarious as that of the euro zone, but is being disguised,” the London-based strategist wrote. “The scales will soon lift from the market’s eyes.”

[xchrom]

11. Exxon Could Be the Big Winner of the Oil Crash

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-02-02/exxon-could-be-the-big-winner-of-the-oil-crash

These are tough times for oil companies. Crude prices have fallen 60 percent since last June, demand remains relatively weak, and the world is still producing more oil than it needs. Not to mention that with crude getting harder to find and costlier to extract, oil companies are spending more money for every barrel they produce—hardly a recipe for steady profits.

Yet ExxonMobil, the largest oil company in the U.S., just reported that it made $6.5 billion in profit during the final three months of 2014. That's well below the $8.3 billion it made during the same period a year ago, but all things considered, it could've been a lot worse. The price of crude averaged $73 a barrel last quarter, compared with $97 a year earlier. So while Exxon's profit fell 21 percent, the price of oil was down 25 percent. As of Monday afternoon, shares of Exxon were trading around $88—roughly where they were a year ago, even though oil is about 50 percent cheaper now than it was last February.

Exxon's competitors are having a much harder time making money. Chevron's profits last quarter were off 30 percent, and ConocoPhillips actually lost money last quarter (the first time that's happened since 2008). BP will report its latest earnings tomorrow, but considering the company's ongoing trouble over the 2010 Deep Horizon spill, it seems unlikely to post a killer quarter. Given BP's mounting liabilities in the Gulf, and what looks to be a sustained period of low prices, there are even rumblings that the company could be ripe for a takeover later this year. One of its presumed suitors? Exxon, of course.

It's premature to start talking about a potential BP-Exxon merger, but the current crash in oil prices could usher in an era of megamergers similar to those in the late 1990s and early 2000s. And it's all part of a normal business cycle: A decade of high oil prices spurred unprecedented amounts of investment, as oil companies went for growth and market share. Now, as prices fall and demand stalls, the game is to consolidate and buy up rivals. This is when the strong get stronger, and right now, no oil company is in a better position than Exxon. Fadel Gheit, an oil analyst at Oppenheimer, thinks Exxon is on the prowl and could make a "massive acquisition" at some point before prices go back up. "This is the time to go big," said Gheit. "And this is the company that can afford to do it."

[Demeter]

13. Everything's back to normal--reinflating bubbles in oil and stock market

suppressing precious metals and pumping up the dollar....

nothing to see here, move along. Mustn't look backwards (or the bogey man will get you!)