STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Tuesday, 23 December 2014

[Tansy_Gold]

[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, 23 December 2014[font color=black][/font]

SMW for 22 December 2014

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 22 December 2014
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Dow Jones 17,959.44 +154.64 (0.87%)
S&P 500 2,078.54 +7.89 (0.38%)
Nasdaq 4,781.42 +16.04 (0.34%)


[font color=green]10 Year 2.16% -0.02 (-0.92%)
30 Year 2.74% -0.04 (-1.44%) [font color=black]


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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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(click on link for latest updates)
http://tools.investing.com/market_quotes.php?
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]

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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout


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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts







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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]

[Demeter]

1. I have a dog....for the weekend

He's about the size and shape of a cocktail wiener, overweight and wired in high gear.

He's slightly bigger than our only remaining cat. Psychokitty, as I affectionately call her, because she is still hissing at me two years after we took her in, could make mincemeat of him. So we're keeping them apart.

Meanwhile, somebody call the guys in white coats....I think I need a vacation in a nice, quiet room.

[Demeter]

2. Russia to limit grain exports to keep bread prices down

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-impose-customs-controls-limit-cereal-exports-110804971.html

Russia announced plans Monday to limit grain exports in a bid to stem a spike in prices at home set off by the collapse of the ruble that threatens to hit the politically-sensitive cost of bread during the holidays. The government said the customs barrier on exports was to ensure its own food security as the currency crisis bites. The announcement drove global grain prices up, but analysts said ample world stocks of wheat and corn should keep it from spiking.

The tumble in the value of the ruble by around 50 percent this year has made exporting grain far more profitable for Russian farmers and, despite one of the best harvests on record, domestic wheat prices have started to soar.

"We had a good harvest but at the same time, due to the volatility of the ruble, prices are very advantageous and exports have risen considerably," Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said at a government meeting.

"We need to have minimum reserves that assure Russia's food security. In this context I think it is time to reflect on administrative restrictions on exports," he added.

The measures could be signed by Medvedev within 24 hours, deputy prime minister Arkady Dvorkovich was quoted as saying by Russian news agencies. Dvorkovich said Russia has exported 21 million tonnes of grain since July out of a potential annual total of 28 million tonnes. Russia harvested 104 million tonnes this year.

Wheat prices climbed in European trading following the announcement...Wheat prices already jumped more than four percent last week on the Chicago exchange as traders feared that Russia, usually the world's number three grain exporter, might impose an export ban as it did in 2010 when it suffered a poor harvest. The restrictions could lead to a shortfall of up to seven million tonnes of wheat on the world market if it was a total ban, he said. Still, the moves will not necessarily cause a sharp spike in prices because buyers could turn to corn, which is in great supply, he said...The business daily Kommersant reported recently that the politically sensitive price of bread could jump by 10 percent in the coming weeks as Russians celebrate the holidays, prompting authorities to take action to ensure no abusive price hikes...

"The market had already anticipated... informal restrictions. Now they are formal," said Sebastien Poncelet, an analyst with the French consultancy Agritel, describing heightened "tension and volatility" in grain trading.

"Now there are two possibilities: either it will be a total restriction or a partial restriction that would exclude...Russia's two main customers, Egypt and Turkey, as well as India and Armenia," Poncelet told AFP.

Russian authorities denied last week they were considering an export ban, but there were indications that the government may have been trying to slow exports to keep the politically sensitive price of bread from soaring. According to Russian media, the veterinary and agricultural service has been issuing only a small percentage of the export certificates it normally does, without providing any official explanation. And the national railway company informed exporters that it is cutting back on grain shipments because of circumstances beyond its control, again without providing an explanation. Then a major association of grain exporting companies said it was halting purchases until prices and supply stabilised.

[Demeter]

3. Ukraine president urges parliament to pass bill on joining NATO

VICTORIA'S SECRET---HER OWN PERSONAL POODLE! SETTING UP THE DOGS OF WAR

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2014/12/19/390866/poroshenko-urges-approval-of-nato-bill/

Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko has called on the country’s parliamentarians to adopt a bill that would allow Ukrainian membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Poroshenko submitted the bill to the parliament on Thursday, saying the adoption of the document was “urgent”. He called on the parliament to put the bill on the agenda of an emergency session.

Poroshenko called Ukraine’s four-year non-aligned status, defined in a 2010 law, an “ineffective means of ensuring the country’s security from foreign aggression and pressure.” The 2010 law, signed by then President Viktor Yanukovych, stipulates that Ukraine is not to be dependent on other countries or international organizations, and is not to join military-political alliances.

On Wednesday, Poroshenko said that new internationally-mediated peace talks could be held between representatives from Kiev, the pro-Russia forces in eastern Ukraine, and Moscow in the Belarusian capital, Minsk, in a few days.

“I hope this group will be able to meet on Sunday in Minsk,” he said. MORE BS AT LINK

[Demeter]

4. As our man in Ukraine points out

It's the Ukrainians who would be pictured in that cartoon, with Victoria Nuland in the starring role....

The Russians are neither starving nor freezing. Nor will they be, because they have a competent leader who fights corruption and thinks ahead. A real chess master, not a poseur.

[MattSh]

26. Parliament member recommends that Yatsenyuk ride a donkey | Ukraina.ru

Serhiy Kaplin, a member of the Petro Poroshenko bloc in the Verkhovna Rada, has recommended that Aresniy Yatsenyuk change his ride.

The deputy was enraged by the fact that the Ukrainian prime minister changed the tires on his service Mercedes with government money at an obviously inflated rate. Meanwhile, the wealth of most Ukrainian citizens is vanishing every day. In some regions, people are even starving.

"You should ride a donkey while the country is going through such a crisis," the parliament member told Yatsenyuk.

The state paid over $10,400 for the snow tires. Kaplin claims Yatsenyuk is no better in his spending habits than the unpopular ex-prime minister Mykola Azarov.

"Just recently, Yatsenyuk bought winter tires for his Mercedes that used to belong to Azarov. One tire cost $2,655. It is a cold shot for the entire country where regular people can’t even afford to change their tires and have to use summer tires. And he did that on government money," Kaplin said on Ukrainian TV.

The deputy believes all government officials must reduce their expenses during such difficult times, including government members, judges, prosecutors and their assistants. Also, the government should be more careful with its ministerial expenses.


Complete story at - http://en.ukraina.ru/news/20141222/1011582487.html

[Demeter]

5. Russian Roulette: Taxpayers Could Be on the Hook for Trillions in Oil Derivatives

YEAH, IF THEY HAD THAT MUCH MONEY....BUT WE DON'T. SO MAYBE IT'S GOODBYE BANKSTERS!

http://www.nationofchange.org/2014/12/21/russian-roulette-taxpayers-hook-trillions-oil-derivatives/

The sudden dramatic collapse in the price of oil appears to be an act of geopolitical warfare against Russia. The result could be trillions of dollars in oil derivative losses; and the FDIC could be liable, following repeal of key portions of the Dodd-Frank Act last weekend.

Senator Elizabeth Warren charged Citigroup last week with “holding government funding hostage to ram through its government bailout provision.” At issue was a section in the omnibus budget bill repealing the Lincoln Amendment to the Dodd-Frank Act, which protected depositor funds by requiring the largest banks to push out a portion of their derivatives business into non-FDIC-insured subsidiaries. Warren and Representative Maxine Waters came close to killing the spending bill because of this provision. But the tide turned, according to Waters, when not only Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, but President Obama himself lobbied lawmakers to vote for the bill. It was not only a notable about-face for the president but represented an apparent shift in position for the banks. Before Jamie Dimon intervened, it had been reported that the bailout provision was not a big deal for the banks and that they were not lobbying heavily for it, because it covered only a small portion of their derivatives. As explained inTime:

The best argument for not freaking out about the repeal of the Lincoln Amendment is that it wasn’t nearly as strong as its drafters intended it to be. . . . [W]hile the Lincoln Amendment was intended to lasso all risky instruments, by the time all was said and done, it really only applied to about 5% of the derivatives activity of banks like Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo, according to a 2012 Fitch report.

Quibbling over a mere 5% of the derivatives business sounds like much ado about nothing, but Jamie Dimon and the president evidently didn’t think so. Why? The preamble to the Dodd-Frank Act claims “to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts.” But it does this through “bail-in”: authorizing “systemically important” too-big-to-fail banks to expropriate the assets of their creditors, including depositors. Under the Lincoln Amendment, however, FDIC-insured banks were not allowed to put depositor funds at risk for their bets on derivatives, with certain broad exceptions. In an article posted on December 10th titled “Banks Get To Use Taxpayer Money For Derivative Speculation,” Chriss W. Street explained the amendment like this:

Starting in 2013, federally insured banks would be prohibited from directly engaging in derivative transactions not specifically hedging (1) lending risks, (2) interest rate volatility, and (3) cushion against credit defaults. The “push-out rule” sought to force banks to move their speculative trading into non-federally insured subsidiaries.

The Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency in 2013 allowed a two-year delay on the condition that banks take steps to move swaps to subsidiaries that don’t benefit from federal deposit insurance or borrowing directly from the Fed.

The rule would have impacted the $280 trillion in derivatives primarily held by the “too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks that include JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. Although 95% of TBTF derivative holdings are exempt as legitimate lending hedges, leveraging cheap money from the U.S. Federal Reserve into $10 trillion of derivative speculation is one of the TBTF banks’ most profitable business activities.

What was and was not included in the exemption was explained by Steve Shaefer in a June 2012 article in Forbes. According to Fitch Ratings, interest rate, currency, gold/silver, credit derivatives referencing investment-grade securities, and hedges were permissible activities within an insured depositary institution. Those not permitted included “equity, some credit and most commodity derivatives.” Schaefer wrote:

For Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the rule is almost a non-event, as they already conduct derivatives activity outside of their bank subsidiaries. (Which makes sense, since neither actually had commercial banking operations of any significant substance until converting into bank holding companies during the 2008 crisis).

The impact on Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and to a lesser extent, Wells Fargo, would be greater, but still rather middling, as the size and scope of the restricted activities is but a fraction of these firms’ overall derivative operations.

A fraction, but a critical fraction, as it included the banks’ bets on commodities. Five percent of $280 trillion is $14 trillion in derivatives exposure – close to the size of the existing federal debt. And as financial blogger Michael Snyder points out, $3.9 trillion of this speculation is on the price of commodities. Among the banks’ most important commodities bets are oil derivatives. An oil derivative typically involves an oil producer who wants to lock in the price at a future date, and a counterparty – typically a bank – willing to pay that price in exchange for the opportunity to earn additional profits if the price goes above the contract rate. The downside is that the bank has to make up the loss if the price drops.

As Snyder observes, the recent drop in the price of oil by over $50 a barrel – a drop of nearly 50% since June – was completely unanticipated and outside the predictions covered by the banks’ computer models. The drop could cost the big banks trillions of dollars in losses. And with the repeal of the Lincoln Amendment, taxpayers could be picking up the bill...

MORE

[Demeter]

6. America's Best And Worst Banks 2015

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americas-best-worst-banks-2015-104500893.html

After surviving the global financial crisis that nearly crippled the banking system, the biggest banks have bounced back with strong profits and improved asset quality in recent quarters. U.S. banks and thrifts generated $40.2 billion in net income during the second quarter, a tick behind the record set in the first quarter of 2013. Loan sales and trading income in the third quarter produced the biggest year-over-year revenue growth in five years, according to the FDIC.

The renewed health of the financial industry has led to increased M&A activity. There were 272 deal announcements this year in the banking sector through Dec. 14, according to Charlottesville, Va.-based financial data provider SNL Financial. This compares to 214 over the same period in 2013. There were only 152 deals in all of 2011. “We are seeing a relatively healthy industry at the moment,” says SNL bank analyst Tyler Hall.

It is not all peaches and cream for the banks. The four biggest U.S. banks have racked up $122.5 billion in crisis and mortgage-related settlements, according to SNL. Bank of America leads the way with $73.5 billion in levies. Another concern: net interest margins thanks to the extended low interest rate environment. “Margins are still on the compressed side,” says Hall, who points to SNL data showing net interest margins of 3.12% in the third quarter at their lowest level since 1991.

More on Forbes: America's Best And Worst Banks 2015

With these mixed signals in the banking industry, Forbes turned to SNL for data to gauge the best and worst banks in the U.S. SNL provided data on the 100 largest banks and thrifts regarding asset quality, capital adequacy and profitability. The data is based on regulatory filings of banks and thrifts through Sept. 30. SNL provides the data, but the rankings are solely done by Forbes (click here for a more detailed methodology and a complete ranking of the 100 largest banks).

[xchrom]

7. Arab OPEC Sources Say Oil Will Be Back Above $70 By The End Of 2015

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-exclusive-arab-opec-sources-see-oil-back-above-70-by-end-2015-2014-12

ABU DHABI (Reuters) - Arab OPEC producers expect global oil prices to rebound to between $70 and $80 a barrel by the end of next year as a global economic recovery revives demand, OPEC delegates said this week in the first indication of where the group expects oil markets to ?stabilize in the medium term.

The delegates, some of which are from core Gulf OPEC producing countries, said they may not see - and some may not even welcome now - a return to $100 any time soon. Once deemed a “fair” price by many major producers, $100 a barrel crude is encouraging too much new production from high cost producers outside the exporting group, some sources say.

But they believe that once the breakneck growth of high cost producers such as U.S. shale patch slows and lower prices begin to stimulate demand, oil prices could begin finding a new equilibrium by the end of 2015 – even in the absence of any production cuts by OPEC, something that has been repeatedly ruled out.

"?The general thinking is that prices can’t collapse, prices can touch $60 or a bit lower for some months then come back to an acceptable level which is $80 a barrel, but probably after eight months to a year," one Gulf oil source told Reuters.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-exclusive-arab-opec-sources-see-oil-back-above-70-by-end-2015-2014-12#ixzz3MihP0FfV

[xchrom]

8. The 10 Most Important Things In The World Right Now

http://www.businessinsider.com/10-most-important-things-in-the-world-dec-23-2014-12

1. North Korea's Internet was restored on Tuesday after a New Hampshire-based company reported that the network completely collapsed on Monday in a suspected cyberattack.

2. North Korea's National Defence Commission has addressed the Sony hack in a 1,722-word statement that includes dramatic threats and praise for the hackers.

3. British singer Joe Cocker died Monday at the age of 70.

4. Pope Francis sharply criticized the Vatican's bureaucracy in a Christmas address to the Roman Curia on Monday, blasting the body for “the sickness of mental and spiritual hardening."

5. The founder and former CEO of American Apparel Dov Charney said he his down to his last $100,000 and sleeping on a friend's couch after being fired from the company in June.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-most-important-things-in-the-world-dec-23-2014-12#ixzz3Mihmaoto

[xchrom]

9. Greece Failed To Elect A President Again

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-greek-pm-still-short-in-second-round-presidential-vote-2014-12

ATHENS (Reuters) - Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras failed to capture the support needed to elect a new president in a second round of voting on Tuesday and now needs another 12 votes in the final round next week to avert a snap general election.

Samaras' nominee, Stavros Dimas, the only candidate in the race, had not been expected to win the second round and the score of 168 votes was broadly in line with expectations.

But it leaves the result of the decisive third round on Dec. 29, when Samaras needs 180 votes, finely balanced.

There were 131 blank votes on Tuesday, which count against the candidate, and one absentee.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-greek-pm-still-short-in-second-round-presidential-vote-2014-12#ixzz3MiiJTbGQ

[xchrom]

10. European Markets Are Up

http://www.businessinsider.com/market-update-dec-23-2014-2014-12

Here's the scorecard:

France's CAC 40 is up 0.48%

Germany's DAX is flat.

Britain's FTSE 100 is up 0.26%

Spain's IBEX is down 0.12%

Italy's FTSE MIB is up 0.48%

Asian markets closed down slightly. Japanese markets are shut for the the Emperor's birthday holiday. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 0.32%.

US futures are up slightly. The Dow is up 19 points, the S&P 500 is up 1.3 points, and NASDAQ is up 2 points.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released on Tuesday show that UK gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.7% in the three months to September compared with the previous quarter from April to June. GDP in the third quarter of 2014 grew by 2.6% year-on-year, revised down from the original estimate of 3%. The ONS also reported that the UK's current account deficit, which is a measure of trade between the UK and the rest of the world in goods, services, and investments, soared to £27 billion in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, it's going to be a busy day for US economic data. Stay tuned for fresh data on durable good orders, GDP, income, spending, and consumer confidence.



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/market-update-dec-23-2014-2014-12#ixzz3MiijVpGZ

[xchrom]

11. Oil Prices Slide After Early Gains

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-oil-prices-slide-after-early-gains-on-hopes-of-firm-us-data-2014-12

SINGAPORE - Oil prices slid back close to opening levels around $60.20 per barrel on Tuesday, after gaining earlier in the day on expectation of firm U.S. economic data due later on Tuesday.

Front-month U.S. WTI crude futures rose over a dollar to a session high of $56.85 a barrel before dipping back to $55.67 at 0745 GMT. Brent crude was up 9 cents at $60.20 a barrel.

Analysts said expectations of firm U.S. economic data later in the day had pushed prices higher in thin Asian trading due to a public holiday in Japan.

"The focus of today would likely come from U.S. durable orders and U.S. GDP figures. Durable goods orders depict a strong manufacturing sector which implies a higher industrial use of crude oil," said Singapore-based Phillip Futures in a report on Tuesday.

"With the U.S. economy picking up, we expect the figures to be favorable."



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-oil-prices-slide-after-early-gains-on-hopes-of-firm-us-data-2014-12#ixzz3MijDQjP3

[xchrom]

12. Britain's Recovery Is Worse Than Expected

http://www.businessinsider.com/uk-gdp-grew-by-07-in-the-three-months-2014-12

UK gross domestic product grew by 0.7% in the three months to September compared with the previous quarter, the Office for National Statistics said on Tuesday.
The final figure is unrevised from the previous estimate published in November and down from 0.9% growth in the second quarter.

However, the original year-on-year growth figure of 3% was revised down by 0.4 percentage points to 2.6%. That's not great because it means Britain's recovery has not been as strong as expected.

The downward revision "is particularly disappointing as Britain has already been experiencing the slowest recovery in decades," The Guardian writes. It means that Britain's economy "is only 2.9% larger than before the financial crisis, not 3.4% as previously thought."



Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/uk-gdp-grew-by-07-in-the-three-months-2014-12#ixzz3Mijf1JMB

[xchrom]

13. IT'S BECOMING EASIER TO SHOP OVERSEAS THIS HOLIDAY SEASON

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_HOLIDAY_SHOPPING_TRAVELS_ABROAD?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-12-22-18-26-58

NEW YORK (AP) -- This holiday season, it's almost as simple to shop on the other side of the world as it is to buy from a store down the block.

International online payment services like AliPay and PayPal are trying to ensure that a South Carolina fashionista can buy a faux fur vest from China with just a few clicks on her computer and a New Zealand biker can use his smartphone to pick up a rare part from a Colorado company.

These services come as shoppers and retailers alike have a growing appetite to buy items from any country, regardless of distance and regulations. In fact, a PayPal report estimates that by 2018, about 130 million shoppers will be spending over $300 billion a year across the border, up from $105 billion in 2013.

"The reality is pretty much nothing in a store is locally produced, so 99 percent of what you're buying is already a cross-border transaction. We're cutting out the middle-man," said Anuj Nayar, senior director of global initiatives at PayPal, which is being spun off by eBay Inc.

[xchrom]

14. TOP BUSINESS STORIES OF 2014: US GROWS, WORLD SLOWS

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_YE_TOP_10_BUSINESS_STORIES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-12-22-13-50-06

The top 10 business stories of 2014:

1. U.S. GROWS AS WORLD SLOWS: After a freezing winter put a chill on buying and selling, the U.S. economy has posted its best six months since 2003. But the rest of the world hasn't been as lucky. Japan has fallen back into recession. The 18 countries that make up the eurozone are barely growing and fear a dangerous drop in prices. Major developing nations aren't faring much better. China's growth has dropped to a five-year low of 7.3 percent. Western sanctions and dropping oil prices have decimated Russia's currency. Brazil just edged out of recession. What's helped the U.S. is its relative insulation. American consumers, not exports, are the main drivers of the world's largest economy.

2. JOBS ARE BACK: Millions of Americans still struggle with low pay and fewer hours of work than they want, and millions have given up looking for a job entirely. But five years after the recession ended, the U.S. job market is looking healthy. The unemployment rate is below 6 percent. Employers added nearly 3 million jobs, the most since 1999, as shoppers and businesses spend more. As a result, the Federal Reserve ended its recession-era stimulus program in October and is edging closer to lifting interest rates. The Fed has kept rates near zero since 2008 to spur lending and investment.

3. SECURITY BREACHES: The theft of 40 million credit and debit cards and 70 million personal records from Target last fall turned out to be just the beginning. Home Depot Inc. hackers nabbed 56 million cards and 53 million email addresses. There were breaches at Kmart, Dairy Queen, and Albertsons. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said hackers stole information covering 76 million households and 7 million small businesses. Sony employees' private information and emails were posted online. The consequences? Sony Pictures Entertainment canceled the release of "The Interview," a comedy about assassinating the North Korean leader, after hackers threatened to attack movie theaters. Target Corp. replaced top executives. Shops, card companies and banks sped up card security improvements.

4. OIL PLUNGE: Global crude prices have fallen to around $57 per barrel from this year's high of $115 because of more production, especially in the U.S., while slowing economies in Europe and Asia crimp demand. A rapid decline in the second half of the year pushed gasoline to below $2.50 a gallon in the U.S., the lowest price in nearly five years. Americans are pocketing $14.6 billion more a month than when gas was at its 2014 high of $3.70. Cheaper crude is also pumping up auto sales and saving airlines money on jet fuel. But drilling could slow in North Dakota's new boomtowns and other regions, hurting businesses that have cropped up. And governments in energy producers Russia, Venezuela and Iran are being squeezed, increasing the likelihood of political upheaval.

[xchrom]

15. GOLDMAN SACHS SELLS METALS BUSINESS TO SWISS FIRM

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_GOLDMAN_SELLS_METAL_BUSINESS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-12-22-19-42-19

NEW YORK (AP) -- Goldman Sachs says it has sold Metro International Trade Services, a metals storage business that drew lawsuits and congressional scrutiny.

The buyer is a unit of Switzerland-based investment firm Reuben Brothers. Goldman did not say what the deal's value was. Reuben Brothers did not immediately respond to emails seeking details.

Wall Street banks have faced scrutiny for their involvement in businesses that store and transport commodities.

A Senate report in November found that Goldman Sachs Group Inc. used its stockpile of aluminum, held in warehouses near Detroit, to cause delivery delays that created shortages and inflated the metal's price. The report said that raised prices for beverage makers and consumers.

New York-based Goldman has said that there has been no aluminum shortage and prices have fallen substantially since 2008.

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16. Ruble Swap Shows China Challenging IMF as Emergency Lender

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/yuan-ruble-swap-shows-china-challenging-imf-as-emergency-lender.html

China is stepping up its role as the lender of last resort to some of the world’s most financially strapped countries.

Chinese officials signaled on the weekend they are willing to expand a $24 billion currency swap program to help Russia weather the worst economic crisis since the 1998 default. China has provided $2.3 billion in funds to Argentina since October as part of a currency swap, and last month it lent $4 billion to Venezuela, whose reserves cover just two years of debt payments.

By lending to nations shut out of overseas capital markets, Chinese President Xi Jinping is bolstering the country’s influence in the global economy and cutting into the International Monetary Fund’s status as the go-to financier for governments in financial distress. While the IMF tends to demand reforms aimed at stabilizing a country’s economy in exchange for loans, analysts speculate that China’s terms are more focused on securing its interests in the resource-rich countries.

“It’s always good to have IOUs in the back of your pocket,” Morten Bugge, the chief investment officer at Kolding, Denmark-based Global Evolution A/S who helps manage about $2 billion of emerging-market debt, said by phone. “These are China’s fellow friends and comrades, and to secure long-term energy could be one of the motivations.”

[Demeter]

24. Eating the US Banksters Lunch

They need to diet, anyway.

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17. Happy New Year? Global Growth Forecasts May Be Raised for Once

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/happy-new-year-global-growth-forecasts-may-be-raised-for-once.html

Here’s an early Christmas present for the economists of Wall Street.

2015 may be the first year in five in which they get to raise forecasts for global economic growth rather than cut them.

That may be fanciful thinking as the year ends with Russia in crisis, investors rediscovering volatility and central banks returning to the monetary pumps. Other potential risks include more geopolitical flare-ups, elections from Greece to the U.K., a hard landing in China, a premature exit from Federal Reserve stimulus and a slide toward deflation in Europe and Japan.

Recent history is on the side of the pessimists. A year ago, the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 3.5 percent in 2014. It has since been scaled back to 3.2 percent. Cuts were also made in 2011, 2012 and 2013.

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18. Greek Drama Draws Market Scrutiny as ECB Impact Weighed

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/greek-drama-draws-market-scrutiny-as-ecb-impact-weighed.html

Greek politics are becoming a concern for financial markets again.

Intraday volatility on the Greek ASE Index (ASE) and the broader Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged to double their annual average last week after Prime Minster Antonis Samaras failed to win two-thirds support in parliament for his candidate to succeed President Karolos Papoulias. Today, he failed again in a second of three potential ballots. Greece’s benchmark stock gauge dropped 1.8 percent at 12:42 p.m. in Athens today.

Anxiety that voters will kick out leaders committed to Greece’s bailout wreaked havoc on equities earlier this month, sending the ASE down 20 percent for its biggest weekly slump since 1987. The losses followed Samaras’s decision to seek parliamentary support for candidate Stavros Dimas, a procedure that may end up spurring national elections. Losing could empower Syriza, the opposition party that seeks a writedown on Greek debt held by the European Central Bank and others.

The renegotiation sought by Syriza “has considerable risk of a Greek exit: a real test case for the EU and Mario Draghi’s ‘whatever it takes,’” said Manish Singh, head of investments at Crossbridge Capital, which oversees about $2 billion.

The ASE Index, up as much as 18 percent in March as optimism built over Europe’s economy, is now down 25 percent for 2014, making it the third-worst performing market in the world behind Russia and Portugal. While the Stoxx 600 is in the midst of its biggest rally in two months, concern is rising that Greek politics could jeopardize European stimulus actions such as the purchase of government bonds by the ECB.

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19. Cheap Oil Is Dragging Down the Price of Gold

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-23/cheaper-oil-putting-gold-out-of-job-as-an-inflation-hedge.html

Gold, the ultimate inflation hedge, isn’t much use to investors these days.

Oil is in a bear-market freefall that began in June, spearheading the longest commodity slump in at least a generation. The collapse means that instead of the surge in consumer prices that gold buyers have been expecting for much of the past decade, the U.S. is “dis-inflating,” according to Bill Gross, who used to run the world’s biggest bond fund.

A gauge of inflation expectations that closely tracks gold is headed for the biggest annual drop since the recession in 2008. While bullion rebounded from a four-year low last month, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Societe Generale SA reiterated their bearish outlooks for prices. The metal’s appeal as an alternative asset is fading as the dollar and U.S. equities rally, and as the Federal Reserve moves closer to raising interest rates to keep the economy from overheating.

“Forget inflation -- all of the talk now is about deflation,” Peter Jankovskis, who helps oversee $1.9 billion as co-chief investment officer of Lisle, Illinois-based OakBrook Investments LLC., said Dec. 16. “Obviously, oil prices dropping are adding to deflationary pressures. We may see a rate rise next year, and we could see gold come under pressure as the dollar continues to move higher.”

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20. Big Stock Market Gains Mean More Taxable Pain in 2015

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-19/big-stock-market-gains-mean-more-taxable-pain-in-2015.html

It's hard to imagine mutual fund managers nostalgic for the big losses many booked in the financial crisis. But for actively managed funds, those realized losses did come to serve one useful purpose -- as the bull market stretched on and managers took profits, they offset capital gains.

Six years into a bull market, those losses are largely used up. That means more investors who own actively managed funds in taxable accounts will confront the biggest taxable distributions seen since before the crisis.

Funds run by the Morgan Stanley Growth team, which Morningstar crowned 2013's stock fund managers of the year, give a glimpse of tax pain to come. The group estimates it will distribute taxable gains equal to 12 percent of the Morgan Stanley Midcap Growth fund’s net asset value (NAV). At T. Rowe Price, shareholders in the Global Technology fund will get a distribution equal to more than 20 percent of the fund’s NAV. Vanguard MidCap Growth is on pace to distribute nearly 12 percent of its NAV, as is Oakmark Select.

Any time a fund books a gain it is required to pass it along to shareholders. The gains can be short-term, which are taxed as ordinary income, or long-term and taxed at rates typically well below the ordinary income tax rate.

[xchrom]

21. Ruble’s Rescue Comes With Cost for Russian Economy

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/ruble-rescue-comes-with-economic-cost-oil-caveat-russia-credit.html

Russian policy makers are signaling they’re prepared to sacrifice economic growth in order to stabilize the ruble.

The Bank of Russia raised its benchmark interest rate by the most in 16 years last week and created a money-market cash squeeze, helping the ruble strengthen 45 percent from a record low on Dec. 16. The consequence of this means the oil producer’s economy may shrink 7.9 percent in 2015, Danske Bank A/S said on Dec. 19, revising a view for a 1.8 percent contraction.

“We’re seeing a serious monetary shock, especially next year,” Vladimir Miklashevsky, a strategist at Danske, said by phone the same day. “What they’ve done is more serious for the economy than falling oil, it’s a big negative factor.”

While the ruble’s plunge may have halted for now, challenges are deepening for the economy, which has been weakened by U.S. and European sanctions over Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin told Russians last week to brace for a recession as this year’s 45 percent drop in oil undermines the world’s biggest energy exporter. If crude drops further, the ruble’s hard-won stability may prove short-lived, said Vladimir Vedeneev at Raiffeisen Capital in Moscow.

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22. CBO Chief Elmendorf Said Not to Win Reappointment by Republicans

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/cbo-chief-elmendorf-said-not-to-win-reappointment-by-republicans.html


Incoming Republican leaders in Congress won’t reappoint Doug Elmendorf to another term as head of the Congressional Budget Office, according to a party aide briefed on the decision.

The move comes after a campaign from conservative lawmakers who want to change the way the CBO calculates the costs of government, said the aide, who requested anonymity to discuss a personnel decision. The office provides nonpartisan budget analysis for members of Congress that includes estimates of the cost of legislation.

Elmendorf, 52, an economist with experience at the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve, was appointed to run the CBO in 2009 when then-director Peter Orszag was picked by President Barack Obama to run the White House Office of Management and Budget.

In 2011, Elmendorf won a full four-year term, after Republicans took control of the House while Democrats retained the Senate. A CBO conclusion that Obama’s signature domestic achievement -- the 2010 Affordable Care Act -- was cutting costs pleased Democrats, while Republicans appreciated the office’s finding that the health-care law and a proposed minimum wage increase would cost jobs.

[Demeter]

25. Hmmm....not good news, at all

The GOP thinks pretty highly of itself, doesn't it? Going to change the whole methodology of bookkeeping, god help us.

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23. Americans Feeling Better About Their Job Hunt

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2014-12-22/americans-feeling-better-about-their-job-hunt

Americans' employment outlook has returned to pre-Great Recession levels, with the highest number of people expressing a positive outlook about the job market since November 2007.

Thirty-six percent of respondents said now is a "good time" to find a "quality job" in December, up six percentage points from last month, according to a Gallup survey released on Monday. While 61 percent of people believe it's a bad time to find a job, those numbers have also declined, from 66 percent in November and 73 percent in December 2013.

Gallup has asked respondents the job question since 2001. The high-water mark for people believing it was a "good time" to find a good job was 48 percent in January 2007. The lowest was 8 percent, most recently in November 2011.