Economy
Related: About this forumSTOCK MARKET WATCH -- Thursday, 18 September 2014
[font size=3]STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday, 18 September 2014[font color=black][/font]
SMW for 17 September 2014
AT THE CLOSING BELL ON 17 September 2014
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Dow Jones 17,156.85 +24.88 (0.15%)
S&P 500 2,001.57 +2.59 (0.13%)
Nasdaq 4,562.19 +9.43 (0.21%)
[font color=red]10 Year 2.62% +0.06 (2.34%)
30 Year 3.37% +0.04 (1.20%) [font color=black]
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[font size=2]Market Conditions During Trading Hours[/font]
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(click on link for latest updates)
http://tools.investing.com/market_quotes.php?
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[font size=2]Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold[center]
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Market Data and News:[/font][/font]
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Economic Calendar
Marketwatch Data
Bloomberg Economic News
Yahoo Finance
Google Finance
Bank Tracker
Credit Union Tracker
Daily Job Cuts
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Economic Blogs:[/font][/font]
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The Big Picture
Financial Sense
Calculated Risk
Naked Capitalism
Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong
Bonddad
Atrios
goldmansachs666
The Stand-Up Economist
The Automatic Earth
Wall Street on Parade
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Essential Reading:[/font][/font]
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Matt Taibi: Secret and Lies of the Bailout
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[font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Government Issues:[/font][/font]
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LegitGov
Open Government
Earmark Database
USA spending.gov
[/center][font color=black][font size=2]Handy Links - Videos:[/font][/font]
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Charlie Rose talks with Roubini
Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
William Black: This Economic Disaster
Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn
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[font color=red]Partial List of Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 [/font][font color=red]
2/2/12 David Higgs and Salmaan Siddiqui, Credit Suisse, plead guilty to conspiracy involving valuation of MBS
3/6/12 Allen Stanford, former Caribbean billionaire and general schmuck, convicted on 13 of 14 counts in $2.2B Ponzi scheme, faces 20+ years in prison
6/4/12 Matthew Kluger, lawyer, sentenced to 12 years in prison, along with co-conspirator stock trader Garrett Bauer (9 years) and co-conspirator Kenneth Robinson (not yet sentenced) for 17 year insider trading scheme.
6/14/12 Allen Stanford sentenced to 110 years without parole.
6/15/12 Rajat Gupta, former Goldman Sachs director, found guilty of insider trading. Could face a decade in prison when sentenced later this year.
6/22/12 Timothy S. Durham, 49, former CEO of Fair Financial Company, convicted of one count conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, 10 counts of wire fraud, and one count of securities fraud.
6/22/12 James F. Cochran, 56, former chairman of the board of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and six counts of wire fraud.
6/22/12 Rick D. Snow, 48, former CFO of Fair, convicted of one count of conspiracy to commit wire and securities fraud, one count of securities fraud, and three counts of wire fraud.
7/13/12 Russell Wassendorf Sr., CEO of collapsed brokerage firm Peregrine Financial Group Inc. arrested and charged with lying to regulators after admitting to authorities he embezzled "millions of dollars" and forged bank statements for "nearly twenty years."
8/22/12 Doug Whitman, Whitman Capital LLC hedge fund founder, convicted of insider trading following a trial in which he spent more than two days on the stand telling jurors he was innocent
10/26/12 UPDATE: Former Goldman Sachs director Rajat Gupta sentenced to two years in federal prison. He will, of course, appeal. . .
11/20/12 Hedge fund manager Matthew Martoma charged with insider trading at SAC Capital Advisors, and prosecutors are looking at Martoma's boss, Steven Cohen, for possible involvement.
02/14/13 Gilbert Lopez, former chief accounting officer of Stanford Financial Group, and former controller Mark Kuhrt sentenced to 20 yrs in prison for their roles in Allen Sanford's $7.2 billion Ponzi scheme.
03/29/13 Michael Sternberg, portfolio mgr at SAC Capital, arrested in NYC, charged with conspiracy and securities fraud. Pled not guilty and freed on $3m bail.
04/04/13 Matthew Marshall Taylor,fmr Goldman Sachs trader arrested, charged by CFTC w/defrauding his employer on $8BN futures bet "by intentionally concealing the true huge size, as well as the risk and potential profits or losses associated."
04/04/13 Matthew Taylor admits guilt, makes plea bargain. Sentencing set for 26 June; faces up to 20 years in prison but will likely only see 3-4 years. Says, "I am truly sorry."
04/11/13 Ex-KPMG LLP partner Scott London charged by federal prosecutors w/passing inside tips to a friend in exchange for cash, jewelry, and concert tickets; expected to plead guilty in May.
08/01/13 Fabrice Tourré convicted on six counts of security fraud, including "aiding and abetting" his former employer, Goldman Sachs
08/14/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout charged with wire fraud, falsifying records, and conspiracy in connection with JP Morgan's "London Whale" trade.
08/19/13 Phillip A. Falcone, manager of hedge fund Harbinger Capital Partners, agrees to admit to "wrongdoing" in market manipulation. Will banned from securities industry for 5 years and pay $18MM in disgorgement and fines.
09/16/13 Javier Martin-Artajo and Julien Grout officially indicted on charges associated with "London Whale" trade.
02/06/14 Matthew Martoma convicted of insider trading while at hedge fund SAC (Stephen A. Cohen) Capital Advisors. Expected sentence 7-10 years.
03/24/14 Annette Bongiorno, Bernard Madoff's secretary; Daniel Bonventre, director of operations for investments; JoAnn Crupi, an account manager; and Jerome O'Hara and George Perez, both computer programmers convicted of conspiracy to defraud clients, securities fraud, and falsifying the books and records.
05/19/14 Credit Suisse, which has an investment bank branch in NYC, agrees to plead guilty and pay appx. $2.6 billion penalties for helping wealthy Americans hide wealth and avoid taxes.
09/08/14 Matthew Martoma, convicted SAC trader, sentenced to 9 years in prison plus forfeiture of $9.3 million, including home and bank accounts
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[font size=3][font color=red]This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.[/font][/font][/font color=red][font color=black]
tclambert
(11,087 posts)Eight years of hard fighting. Valley Forge. Banastre Tarleton. We had to beg the French for help. And the Scottish can just take a vote? Not even a soccer riot?
Demeter
(85,373 posts)this is a case of taking your oilfields and going home...
Tansy_Gold
(17,867 posts)tclambert
(11,087 posts)You know, a border wall to keep the illegal immigrants out. If Texas seceded, you know they would wall up the border.
Demeter
(85,373 posts)but it would have to be on the Northern border....currently, they are working on the Southern one, I believe.
Crewleader
(17,005 posts)Fuddnik
(8,846 posts)Not to mention a War on War.
And a seasonal office for the Wars on Xmas, Easter, Mothers Day, Groundhog Day..........
....watched the movie The Wolf On Wall Street last night....they do need the entire wing on Wall St. and then some.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)The latest funding scheme designed to offer a boost to the eurozones banks is looking like a flop, after the release of initial figures on the take-up from the banks it's intended for.
The European Central Bank calls its latest wheeze "targeted long-term refinancing operations," or TLTROs. Banks can access cheap credit from Frankfurt and are allowed to take up to 7% of their total loans in the eurozone. Theres a longer explanation from Danske Bank here.
Figures out Thursday morning show that the blocs banks snagged 82.6 billion ($106.5 billion) in the long-term loans, less than basically anyone was expecting. Analysts are united, for once, in the view that the take-up of the scheme is a massive disappointment.
Kit Juckes, of Societe Generale, said in a research note Thursday morning that even a take-up of 100bn to 120bn would be a small enough figure to leave many fearing that the ECB is still doing too little, too late."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-latest-effort-to-save-the-eurozone-just-fell-flat-on-its-face-2014-9#ixzz3DfBok7iT
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Remember gold?
We used to talk a lot about it around these parts, but we've pretty much stopped following it ever since the whole goldbug, Fed-hater thing got so thoroughly discredited.
Anyway, it's not looking so hot. In fact, it kind of looks like death.
Here's a chart going back a number of years.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/gold-looks-like-death-2014-9#ixzz3DfEq6LSI
xchrom
(108,903 posts)The August Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the August year-over-year inflation rate at 1.70%, off the May 19-month high of 2.13%. It is well below the 3.87% average since the end of the Second World War and 28 percent below its 10-year moving average.
For a comparison of headline inflation with core inflation, which is based on the CPI excluding food and energy, see this monthly feature.
For better understanding of how CPI is measured and how it impacts your household, see my Inside Look at CPI components.
For an even closer look at how the components are behaving, see this X-Ray View of the data for the past six months.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-look-at-us-inflation-2014-9#ixzz3DfGfIy2A
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Many investors are worried about the future path of the Chinese currency after its sharp depreciation earlier this year. Based on fundamentals and the expectation that China will stick to its foreign-exchange policy, we think the currency has reached a fork in the road and is likely to rally.
The decision by the Peoples Bank of China (PBC) early this year to weaken the renminbi (RMB) came as a shock to many investors who expected the currency to maintain a long-term path of appreciation. After all, the RMB had been strengthening against the US dollar for nine years, and its trajectory was consistent with the governments stated aim of internationalizing the currency.
For close observers, the move wasnt unprecedentedor necessarily at odds with Chinese policy. The PBC made a similar move in mid-2012, lowering the rate at which the RMB was fixed daily against the US dollar. A six-month period of slight weakening followed; during that time, the PBC widened the RMBs trading band against the rate fix. Eventually, the RMB resumed its upward climb.
This years episode appears to have followed a similar script. After moving to weaken the RMB after January by lowering the daily fix versus the US dollar, the PBC announced in mid-March that the trading band would widen from +/ 1% to +/ 2%. This guided weakening helped defuse market speculation that the RMB was a one-way bet, and the wider trading band, in our view, was in line with the policy aim of moving to a more market-driven exchange rate.
Read more: http://blog.alliancebernstein.com/index.php/2014/09/17/history-and-policy-point-to-renminbi-rally/#ixzz3DfHYRw2C
xchrom
(108,903 posts)BEIJING/SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Worries that China's economy may be slowing further intensified on Thursday as data showed home prices fell for the fourth straight month, adding to expectations that Beijing will need to do more to stimulate activity.
For now, policy easing is likely to come in the form of help to the most vulnerable sectors, rather than more aggressive steps such as cutting interest rates, but authorities are ready to step in with bolder measures if unemployment rises, policy insiders told Reuters.
China's central bank reportedly stepped in this week to avert any further shocks to the world's second-largest economy.
The People's Bank of China offered to lend $81 billion to big banks to reduce the risk of a credit crunch and a jump in interest rates heading into the long "Golden Week" holidays in early October, when demand for cash typically soars.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-chinas-house-prices-fall-further-economic-gloom-deepens-2014-9#ixzz3DfI0YUiX
xchrom
(108,903 posts)TOKYO (Reuters) - Confidence at Japanese manufacturers fell the most in nearly two years in September as a tax increase hit the economy harder than expected, while exports slid in August in a further sign that conditions have deteriorated in the crucial third quarter.
This frailty in the monthly Reuters Tankan business confidence, and the shaky outlook, could raise in coming months the pressure on the BOJ to ease policy further and complicate Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decision on whether to raise the national sales tax again.
The first phase of the tax hike in April triggered a 7.1 percent slump in the economy in the second quarter - the worst contraction since the global financial crisis.
The third quarter data will be crucial for Abe's second-stage tax-rise decision, due by year-end, but some analysts say the Reuters survey suggests that the expected recovery is not taking hold.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-japans-frail-business-mood-exports-show-economy-straining-under-tax-hike---2014-9#ixzz3DfIRBofs
xchrom
(108,903 posts)London (AFP) - Europe's stock markets edged higher at the start of trading on Thursday, with all eyes on Scotland's independence referendum, and after Fed-inspired gains overnight on Wall Street.
In opening deals, London's benchmark FTSE 100 benchmark index gained just 0.01 percent at 6,781.84 points, around one hour after Scots began voting.
Frankfurt's DAX 30 added 0.43 percent to 9,703.10 points and the Paris CAC 40 index won 0.20 percent to stand at 4,440.33 points compared with Wednesday's close.
Wall Street had rallied to a fresh record on Wednesday after the US Federal reserve stuck to its slow-but-steady plans to tighten monetary policy.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/afp-european-stocks-edge-up-but-hang-on-scotland-vote-2014-9#ixzz3DfJ0eCQu
xchrom
(108,903 posts)One of the primary drivers of the ever higher stock market has been the boom in stock buybacks. A recent report from FactSet shows that Q2 buybacks are down -1.1% on a year over year basis and down -23% on a quarter-over-quarter basis:
Quarterly Buybacks Declined Year-over-Year: Dollar-value share repurchases amounted to $123.7 billion over the second quarter and $539.3 billion for the trailing twelve months. Quarterly buybacks declined year-over-year (-1.1%) for the first time since Q3 2012. And, due to record post-recession activity last quarter, Q2 showed the most severe quarter-over-quarter decline (-22.9%) since Q4 2011.
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/buybacks-slow-in-q2-2014-2014-9#ixzz3DfJX2ZvX
xchrom
(108,903 posts)WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The global economy faces a growing risk from big financial market bets that could quickly unravel if investors get spooked by geopolitical tensions or a shift in U.S. interest rate policy, the International Monetary Fund said on Wednesday.
The IMF, an institution based in Washington that is the world's premier watchdog for financial and economic stability, said in a report it still expects economic growth will pick up in the second half of 2014 after a rough start to the year.
But it also warned that financial market indicators suggested investor bets funded with borrowed money looked "excessive" and that markets could quickly deflate if there were surprises in U.S. monetary policy or the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
As the IMF put it in its technical language, "New downside risks associated with geopolitical tensions and increasing risk taking are arising."
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/r-imf-warns-of-risks-from-excessive-financial-market-bets-2014-9#ixzz3DfKZAjTk
xchrom
(108,903 posts)KEEPING SCORE: Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.2 percent to 6,793.59 and Germany's DAX rose 0.8 percent to 9.739.02. France's CAC 40 advanced 0.6 percent to 4,458.25. Wall Street was set for further gains after the Dow set a record-high in the previous session. S&P 500 and Dow futures were both up 0.2 percent.
SCOTTISH VOTE: Scotland opened polling stations on Thursday for a referendum on whether the country will leave its union with England, Wales and Northern Ireland and become an independent state. The first exit polls will be released after voting closes at 10 p.m. local time, or 2100 GMT. Opinion polls have suggested the "Yes' campaign favoring independence is neck and neck with the `No' campaign that wants Scotland to stay in the United Kingdom.
THE QUOTE: "A `yes' vote is likely to weigh heavily on the sterling and equities. A `no' vote should result in a relief rally and is likely to be positive for the sterling and equities," said IG strategist Stan Shamu in a market commentary. "However, even if we get a `no' vote, I feel the recovery will be capped by the fact this whole situation is likely to give rise to further structural issues in the not-too-distant future. "
ASIA'S DAY: Asian stock markets started out weak but mostly erased losses by the end of the day. Hong Kong's Hang Seng finished 0.9 percent lower at 24,168.72 and South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.7 percent to 2,047.74. But Australia's S&P/ASX 200 bounced back, closing at 5,415.80, up 0.2 percent. Japan's Nikkei 225 outperformed the region, gaining 1 percent to 16,067.57 as the yen traded at a six-year low against the dollar. Markets in mainland China, India and Southeast Asia also rose.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)FRANKFURT, Germany (AP) -- The European Central Bank has launched a new stimulus program aimed at getting banks to lend more - but low demand for its super-cheap money shows the difficulty it faces in trying to revive a stalling economy.
The central bank for the 18-country eurozone on Thursday handed out 82.6 billion euros ($107 billion) in ultra-low interest loans to 255 banks.
Demand undershot even the low end of expectations. Analyst estimates had varied, from around 100 billion euros to over 200 billion euros.
The idea is to have banks use the easy money as an incentive to lend more to companies. Banks pay only 0.15 percent annual interest for up to four years for the loans. The amount they can borrow is tied to how much they loan to companies. That is intended to make sure the stimulus money gets into the economy and creates jobs; banks have used previous such offerings to load up on government bonds instead.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)WASHINGTON (AP) -- Record-low interest rates will be around for at least a few more months, the Federal Reserve made clear Wednesday.
Enjoy the easy money while it lasts.
By mid-2015, economists expect the Fed to abandon a nearly 6-year-old policy of keeping short-term rates at record lows. Those rates have helped support the economy, cheered the stock market and shrunk mortgage rates. A Fed rate increase could potentially reverse those trends.
Mortgages could cost more. So could car loans. Investors could get squeezed.
"Borrowers should see the writing on the wall," said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com. "Interest rates are eventually going to go up. They should pay down variable-rate debt and keep an eye on that adjustable-rate mortgage. They don't want to be caught flat-footed."
xchrom
(108,903 posts)VEVEY, Switzerland (AP) -- Some 200 companies on Thursday pledged to create new work and training opportunities for Europe's young jobseekers, of which one out of four is unemployed.
The alliance of major companies set a goal of creating tens of thousands in additional jobs - or apprenticeships and internships that lead to jobs - over the next several years.
"We are confident that more than 100,000 opportunities will be given in the coming years, but it should go beyond that," Laurent Freixe, CEO of Nestle Europe, told reporters at the company's headquarters.
Nestle, the world's biggest food and drinks maker, is leading the alliance which includes Adecco, AXA, Cargill, CHEP, DS Smith, EY, Facebook, Firmenich, Google, Nielsen, Publicis, Salesforce and Twitter and White & Case. Freixe said Nestle has created 8,000 of the 20,000 new positions it promised to generate by 2016.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen says "it could take until the end of the decade" to shrink the Fed's record investment portfolio to more normal levels.
The Fed's response to the 2008 financial crisis has swollen its balance sheet to more than $4.4 trillion from less than $1 trillion roughly six years ago. Fed officials responded to the downturn in the economy with three rounds of bond purchases to try to hold down long-term borrowing rates to spur spending.
The Fed plans to end its latest round of buying Treasurys and mortgage bonds after its next meeting in October. It would then look to reduce its balance sheet once it begins raising a key short-term rate from its record low near zero.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. will train at least 50,000 veterans to become solar panel installers in the next six years, the White House said Thursday.
The jobs training program is among a host of initiatives the White House says will cut carbon dioxide emissions by more than 300 million tons through 2030, plus save billions of dollars on energy bills for homeowners and businesses. It will launch this fall at one or more military bases.
The Agriculture Department will also spend nearly $70 million to fund 540 solar and renewable energy projects, focused on rural and farming areas. And the Energy Department will propose stricter efficiency standards for commercial air conditioners, a move the department said could cut emissions more than any other efficiency standard it has issued to date.
The proposals are modest compared with what Obama has asked Congress to do through legislation to promote clean energy, invest in infrastructure projects and force reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. But with lawmakers unwilling to consider any major climate legislation, Obama has sought to maximize what presidential authority he does hold.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve policymakers have slightly increased their estimate of what the Fed's benchmark interest rate should be at the end of 2015 compared with their estimate three months ago.
The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at a record-low level near zero since 2008 to try to boost economic growth. Most economists expect the first rate increase to happen by the middle of next year. A Fed statement indicated little change in the timing of that first increase.
The median short-term interest rate supported by Fed policymakers at the end of 2015 is now 1.38 percent, up from 1.13 percent at its June meeting.
The Fed also forecasts only modest growth for the U.S. economy through 2017.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)The increase in U.S. household earnings in 2013 was centered in 14 states, indicating the improvement was limited.
Median income climbed 0.6 percent to $52,250 after adjusting for inflation, according to a report from the Census Bureau today using new data from the American Community Survey. Wyoming, with a 5.7 percent gain, and Alaska, which advanced 5.3 percent, were among the states showing increases that were statistically significant, while no state showed a marked drop, according to the report.
The data highlight how geographically spotty the U.S. economic expansion, now in its sixth year, has been. While many households have yet to see their incomes return to pre-recession levels, continued job gains combined with improvement in the stock and housing markets may be strengthening the financial outlook in some parts of the country.
Labor indicators continue to improve and thats good for the American consumer overall, said John Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina. However, there is some geographical disparity in different regions because of the economic concentrations.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Irelands economy grew the most in seven years in the second quarter, underpinning the governments plan to scale back austerity after years of spending cuts and tax increases.
Gross domestic product rose an annual 7.7 percent, the most since the first quarter of 2007, the Central Statistics Office said in Dublin today. From the previous quarter, the economy grew 1.5 percent, a second consecutive quarterly expansion.
Finance Minister Michael Noonan has signaled he no longer needs the 2 billion-euro ($2.6 billion) budgetary adjustment previously planned for 2015 as the economy strengthens and tax revenues outstrip forecasts. He said today the economy may expand more than twice as fast as the government currently forecasts and the budget deficit may come below target.
The archetypal growth model in Ireland is one of export growth leading to an increase in business investment, which in turn increases employment and then spills over into domestic consumption, said Colin Bermingham, an economist with BNP Paribas SA in London. We are further along this road than previously expected.
xchrom
(108,903 posts)Tom Kaminski is back at work, three years after losing his job as a human-resources manager and dropping out of the labor force for a time to go back to college.
Kaminski, 43, dipped into his retirement savings while he earned a masters degree. The added credential helped him land the position at Intuitive HR LLC, a consulting company in Woodbridge, Connecticut, last September.
It was always my goal to come back to work, he said. I thought I was a very good human-resource person and I thought I had a lot more to achieve.
Too few men like Kaminski are returning to work in a decades-long puzzle about prime working-age males ages 25 to 54 falling away from the U.S. labor force. Their participation rate slid to 88.4 percent in August in a steady decline from 97.9 percent in 1954. Over the last 10 years, the slump was the steepest for those ages 25 to 34.
Gradual Disappearance
A key reason is the change in labor demand: the gradual disappearance of construction and manufacturing positions, especially those demanding relatively few skills, such as furniture, shoe or leather-goods making, said David Autor, professor of economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology in Cambridge.