the Popular Democratic Party in past status votes has defined their preference as a free association type of relationship with the US whereas Puerto Rico is essentially a sovereign nation with their own foreign affairs, not subjected to US laws and the US court system yet still retain US citizenship, US funding, and services. This is what they want their so called Commonwealth status to be, not what it actually is which is a US territory. Interestingly though, while never wanting to admit that PR is a US territory, it seems they are stuck with promoting the plebiscite option of voting for yes that they are satisfied with the current status as a territory since their dream status or "none of the above" are not options for the current vote.
If "no" is selected on the first question, voters will then vote on independence or statehood on the second question. Statehood will likely win by a huge margin however the "no" vote on the first question must win a majority for part 2 to be valid.
The way the ballot is presented will combine the support of the independentistas with the statehooders since neither wants the existing status as a territory. Their combined support is about 51 or 52% of the populace with the PDP being about 48-49. However, the "yes" vote still could win but it will be somewhat embarrassing to the PDP since they have been arguing for 60 years that PR is not a territory even though the current reality isn't what they want either.