Link for live results for NY Primary and delegate math

[geek tragedy]

Last edited Tue Apr 19, 2016, 09:28 PM - Edit history (3)

It includes not only statewide but also Congressional District numbers so we can estimate delegate splits.

Link:

http://nyenr.elections.state.ny.us/

Delegate totals by CD:

7 delegates: CDs 3,7, 14, 20, 7

Delegate thresholds (%):
1 delegate: 15.0
2 delegates: 21.4
3 delegates: 35.7
4 delegates: 50.0
5 delegates: 64.3
6 delegates: 78.6
7 delegates: 85.0

5 delegates: CDs 11, 19, 22, 23

Delegate thresholds (%):
1 delegate: 15.0
2 delegates: 30.0
3 delegates: 50.0
4 delegates: 70.0
5 delegates: 85.0

6 delegates: all the rest
Delegate thresholds:
1 delegate: 15.0
2 delegates: 25.0
3 delegates: 41.7
4 delegates: 58.4
5 delegates: 75.0
6 delegates: 85.0

Pledged PLEO: 30 (just multiply the % by 30 for each candidate, and round to the nearest whole number)
At-large: 54 ( (just multiply the % by 54 for each candidate, and round to the nearest whole number)

total 247

Good analysis of where things might turn out:

http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/new-york-city-and-surrounding-areas.html?showComment=1460570402023&m=1

Making a race call: Clinton will win the 2016 New York Democratic Primary. Margin call at 30%. Clinton overperforming benchmarks EVERYWHERE.

[Cha]

1. Thank you for this, geek.. I'll keep it kicked for now..

[UtahLib]

2. K&R. nt

[KewlKat]

3. K&R

[Cha]

4. Kick~

[livetohike]

5. K&R

[liberal N proud]

6. K&R

[Cha]

7. kick

[SaschaHM]

8. Based off of this,

Anyone with knowledge of the state want to hazard a guess on what the delegate split will be? What do you think Secretary Clinton's delegate lead will be after the 19th?

[William769]

9. Recommended & pinned.

[Cha]

10. Mahlao, Bill~

[LiberalFighter]

11. This is highly unusual.

Most of the time they only have the results by county.

What will also make this easier is that it appears only Clinton and Sanders are included on the ballot. Otherwise, recalculations would need to be made by throwing out anyone that didn't have at least 15% and then do the percent.

[Firebrand Gary]

12. K&R Three. More. Days.

Sander's Campaign =

[hrc guy]

13. I'll not debate Nate!

According to our latest polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton has a 99% chance of winning the New York primary.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-york-democratic/

[ismnotwasm]

14. K&R

[jmowreader]

15. And another kick...

[MADem]

16. Kick n rec!