Clinton Forecast to Win Big Primary States of N.Y, Pa, and MD

[Iamaartist]

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/04/11/1513773/-Clinton-Forecast-to-Win-Big-Primary-States-of-N-Y-Pa-and-MD

The Bing Political Index is predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the vast majority of the remaining primary contests in April, including the delegate rich states of New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland. She is also predicted to win the Connecticut and Delaware primaries.

New York Primary-247 Delegates

Latest poll by Fox News has Clinton beating Sanders by double digits in both New York and Pennsylvania. She leads Sanders by a margin of 53-37 in New York. Clinton’s clearly the pick among women (61-30 percent) and non-whites (56-37 percent). Men give the edge to Sanders by just 47-43 percent. Sanders is currently losing among every demographic group with the exception of men and voters under age 45. Clinton holds a 27-point advantage among voters 45 and over (58-31 percent). She leads by a whopping 19 percent in New York City and is also leading in the suburbs and surrounding areas.

Pennsylvania Primary-189 Delegates

Latest Fox News Poll shows that Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 49% to 38%.

Hillary is far ahead with women (54/33) while Bernie edges her among men (45/42). Additionally, Clinton’s lead is much larger among blacks (69/22) than whites (54/33). The educational divide is also evident as Clinton performs better with those that

Maryland Primary-95 Delegates

Clinton leads her rival Bernie Sanders, 55% to 40%, according to the Washington Post/University of Maryland poll. Her support in Maryland mirrors strengths in previous primary contests, leading Sanders among African-American voters, as well as those who identify as moderate and conservative Democrats.

Forecasts by 538

Nate Silver of 538 indicates the following forecasts for the upcoming primaries.

NY: Clinton Victory-98%

PA: Clinton Victory-96%

MD: Clinton Victory-95%




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done yesterday

[Cha]

1. Steady as she goes, Hillary!

Mahalo artist~

[Iamaartist]

2. Right on Cha !!!!!

[Arkansas Granny]

3. This is good news, indeed.

[TMontoya]

4. Good news Indeed! nt

[MarianJack]

5. I expect...

..that Back Bench Bernie will be mathematically eliminated within a few weeks!

Of course, after Hillary wins NY, PA, MD, CT, RI, DE, KY & possibly OR, we'll start hearing from the Sanders campaign that a victory in the ND caucuses will SWEEP him to victory because of a BIRD!

PEACE!

[Stuckinthebush]

11. Back Bench Bernie!

I love that!

After this is over he will be on the floor behind the back bench. He will be despised for what he has said about President Hillary Clinton.

[George II]

17. I've got a bird for Bernie.

[livetohike]

6. Finally seeing Hillary's ads here in PA. Sanders' ads

have been playing for weeks.

[Treant]

7. I've seen neither yet

Here in east-central PA at the NJ border...but I don't watch a lot of local stations.

[livetohike]

9. I'm in the Pittsburgh tv market and watch the local

morning news, so that's where I've seen them .

[Treant]

18. I tend to view the NYC stations

for my morning news, but even so...none yet. Or I'm tuning them out. That could be.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

8. I am worried about two things: (1) the debate and

(2) the impact and coverage on BS's trip to the Vatican.

Talk me down from the ledge...

[Treant]

10. Easy-Peasy

Rest easy.

1) When hasn't Hillary performed well at a debate--and Sanders pretty poorly? Overall, they change few minds, Clinton's support is rock solid per the polls, and there aren't a lot of undecideds left.

2) That visit, if it even happens, hurts him as much as it helps him. A lot of us don't like it when politicians pander to religious leaders and seriously object to mixing religion and politics. It's one of the reasons we're not Republicans!

2a) If it goes off, it's not a photo op, he's not meeting anybody important, and he's not going to do anything but give his stump speech.

2b) Cancel it and he looks like a gadfly--plus looks worried about New York, PA, and MD (which he should be given the polling numbers).

Conclusion: I don't foresee any significant motion in the race for the next eight days, barring another Sanders gaffe or a (far less likely, IMO) Clinton misstep.

[LiberalFighter]

12. Will he even be able to keep the speech down to 10 minutes?

[Treant]

19. Ha!

Probably not, but his speech is scheduled for 4 PM local time and the coffee break 10 minutes later. If he runs over, he may be pontificating (so to speak) to an empty room.

I doubt Sanders' appearance at this conference is all that important to the other attendees. He's not a world leader, and they have to be aware it's extremely improbable that he ever will be.

[LiberalFighter]

26. Not in the mind of Bernie Sanders.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

22. I just think the biggest problem for HRC is not HRC; it's the Corporate Media and how it portrays

her, vis-à-vis BS. They simply refuse to go after this guy with the same rigor that they pursue HRC.

Everything else is window dressing. HRC will do well in the debate and he has his foibles. He's just been handled with kid gloves.

At any rate, I'm off the ledge...for now.

You're right, anything can happen in a week's time. Hopefully nothing on HRC's side.

[Loki]

15. Bernie has his debating skills down pat.

More of the SOS, finger pointing, arm waving and blather that we have heard forever. Nothing new, nothing of substance, and if asked a specific question, he deflects or turns it back around to attacking her, This won't go over well in NY. Plus, traveling to Rome and back in such a short time is hard enough on a younger person. He's going to be tired. He's tired already.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

21. Thanks for this. I'm just thinking that she is a champion debater and even out-debated Obama in my

view. That's not really what I'm concerned about. I'm concerned about how the Corporate Media tends to turn things around and scrutinize her for every single answer but won't go after him on specifics. The bar is lowered for him; he just runs on platitudes without providing specifics. I really want her to bludgeon him on this -- GIVE US POLICY SPECIFICS, Mr. Sanders! And tell us HOW you will get your agenda through a Republican-dominated legislature! (Not to mention, past Democrats who don't hold you or your values in high regard.)

[BlueMTexpat]

23. As others have said:

a) the debate: should be another walkover for Hillary. When has she not performed well against Bernie?

For me, the debate wild card is Wolf Blitzer. I have little admiration for him or his abilities.

b) if Bernie hasn't yet figured it out, the Vatican trip is pretty much a lose-lose proposition right now, after he said he was invited by the Pope when he wasn't. Further:

- Injecting religion into what should be a secular political campaign = bad idea. check

- Abysmal knowledge of protocol/common sense to even think of doing this while a Presidential candidate. check

- No meeting with Pope. check

- Speech? If one, it will likely be same-old, same old. check

- Purpose of conference: to discuss encyclical of John Paul II (typical "Establishment" Pope; not the more "liberal" Pope Francis). check

From the encyclical:

The present Encyclical seeks to show the fruitfulness of the principles enunciated by Leo XIII, which belong to the Church's doctrinal patrimony and, as such, involve the exercise of her teaching authority. But pastoral solicitude also prompts me to propose an analysis of some events of recent history. It goes without saying that part of the responsibility of Pastors is to give careful consideration to current events in order to discern the new requirements of evangelization. However, such an analysis is not meant to pass definitive judgments since this does not fall per se within the Magisterium's specific domain.

http://w2.vatican.va/content/john-paul-ii/en/encyclicals/documents/hf_jp-ii_enc_01051991_centesimus-annus.html

This encyclical also seems to argue against both socialism and atheism.

*************

What should be stressed most about this visit, IMO, if it occurs at all, is that the Catholic Church as an institution (separate from individual priests and nuns who challenge its teachings, occasionally losing their lives in the process) is arguably the most representative (and corporate) "Establishment" ever created, having outlasted several empires and political systems. It also has enormous wealth, which is almost always used to advance its religious goals.

How on earth could anyone sane believe that the Church would ever support any political revolution unless that revolution gave the Church more power? Why on earth would anyone want the Catholic Church - or any other, for that matter - to have more power? We should very much hold the media to account for their reporting.

Bernie's taking time out of politicking in a must-win state for this visit shows extremely poor judgment, IMO. I believe that a lot of people see that as I do. If this is a "Hail Mary" pass, it will likely go as the overwhelming majority of "Hail Mary" passes usually do.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

29. This is very fascinating. Thanks so much for the information on the Encyclical.

[LiberalFighter]

13. I would think Sanders numbers would start going down

as fewer states are in play.

[UtahLib]

14. K&R. nt

[George II]

16. If the polls hold steady:

Here are the delegate counts in the three of these states:

New York - Clinton 143, Sanders 104
Pennsylvania - Clinton 108, Sanders 81
Maryland - Clinton 56, Sanders 39

That's Clinton 307, Sanders 224 - Clinton +83

And of course, since the Sanders campaign wants the superdelegates to go with the winner in each state, we can add 44+21+23 to Clinton's tally, increasing her net count to +171.

[trumad]

24. Enjoy your short stay

[LAS14]

25. k & r

[DesertRat]

27. Woohoo!

[Lucinda]

28. :)