I did an analysis of pledged delegates left in the race

[jmowreader]

Sanders fans hate superdelegates, every man jack of them. So I set them all aside to attempt to answer this question: Just how fucked is Bernie anyway?

Executive summary: He's not quite as fucked as fucked can be, but he's pretty fucked.

It takes 2,383 delegates of all stripes to win the nomination. Hillary currently has 1,280 pledged delegates and needs 1,103 more to take the nomination without one superdelegate. For calculation sake, I gave Hillary 65 percent of the states she'll probably win and 40 percent of the ones she'll probably lose.

As we speak, there are 21 contests left to go.

Wyoming: 14 pledged delegates available, she should take 4. 1099 to go.

New York: 247 pledged delegates available, she should take 160. 939 to go.

Connecticut: 55 pledged; Hillary should take 36. 903 to go.

Delaware: 21 pledged; Hillary should take 14. 889 to go.

Maryland: 95 pledged; Hilary should take 62. 827 to go.

Pennsylvania: 189 pledged; Hillary should take 123. 704 to go.

Rhode Island: 24 pledged; Hillary should take 16. 688 to go.

Indiana: I expect her to lose this right-wing state. 83 pledged; she takes 37. 651 to go.

Guam: The Sanders campaign stepped in it this week here. They have seven and she gets six. 645 to go.

WV: She'll lose this one too. Twenty-nine delegates are available; she takes 12. 633 to go.

KY: I think they'll split this one evenly. 55 are available and she takes 28. 605 to go.

Oregon: I think she loses this state. They have 61 and she gets 25. 580 to go.

Virgin Islands: Because it's an open caucus, she gets 40 percent of the vote - seven delegates, three to her. 577 to go.

Puerto Rico caucus: They have 60 and she gets 24. 550 to go.

California: The state's too big to ratfuck successfully. 475 available, Hillary takes 309. 241 to go.

Montana: He has this one. 21 available, she gets 8. 233 to go.

New Jersey: Sorry, Bernie. 126 available, 82 to her. 151 to go.

New Mexico: I think this one's his. 34 available, 13 to her. 138 to go.

North Dakota: Caucus. 18 total, 7 to her. 131 to go.

South Dakota: As bad as North Dakota...20 available, 8 to her. 123 to go.

Washington, DC: I think he gets stomped here. 20 available, 15 to her. 108 remaining.

Here's where it gets fun: The four biggest states still in the race are NY, PA, CA and NJ.
Remaining delegates:
NY 87
PA 66
CA 166
NJ 44
Total 363
If she can convert 30 percent of the delegates I don't predict her getting to Hillary delegates, she ends up with 2384 pledged delegates - exactly one more than she needs WITHOUT relying on one superdelegate.

There's probably a 70 percent chance of her coming to Philadelphia with less than 2383 pledged delegates, but there's essentially NO chance Bernie wins this thing - even if he seizes all her superdelegates.

[Kath1]

1. Thanks for that analysis.

Yes, he's pretty fucked. In more ways than one, in my opinion.

[bullimiami]

2. in 2008 Obama had 1766.5 to Hillarys 1639.5 pledged delegates.

Then he took Superdelegates 463 to 257.

And their popular vote totals were within a percent or so.

Right now Hillary is 200+ pledged delegates and a couple million popular votes ahead of Sanders.


Just to put this all in perspective.

[IamMab]

3. The media's bias against Clinton still keeps me anxious. They basically enable every GOP lie

against her and think nothing of it. The longer this drags on, the more time they have to throw the kitchen sink around.

[Lucinda]

15. At the same time, a lot of people have just started to tune it out. Time

after time it turns out to be not true, and people just stop listening to the smears...well the ones that WANT to believe it listen, but most voters?... probably not.

[LuvLoogie]

4. I'd be more conservative. Taking the states she currently leads

I think she will do well to average 55%. I think the tell will be next week in the push to the vote. I think her NY contingent has to barnstorm the state with a lot of high profile activity. She has to absolutely dominate the ground and air in the next 10 days.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

12. I'll be even more conservative; give her 1/2 of the delegates in each of the contests.

Give BS the other half. It's STILL not enough for him to can't catch up!

[Thinkingabout]

5. I like your math, two super delegates you will not shake loose is Bill and Hillary Clinton.

There will be more but not those two.

[jmowreader]

6. Is Bernie a superdelegate? I know he's only been a Democrat for a few months.

I know the rest of the Democratic Senate Caucus has been declared superdelegates, but they've been Democrats for quite a while.

Thing is, you'd expect someone who's both a SD and a candidate to vote for him- or herself.

[Treant]

7. Yep.

Bernie's a Super. Interestingly, he declared for himself before Vermont voted...

[Squinch]

8. Just before he decided superdelegates were undemocratic.

[Thinkingabout]

9. Hillary, Bernie and O'Malley was added to the super delegates.

[geek tragedy]

10. I think 2:1 wins in NY, PA, MD while possible are unlikely.

But her lead will be bigger at the end of the month than it is now.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

11. You think she loses New Mexico and PR? NM has a large number of Hispanics. PR has always been HRC

country. She beat Obama there pretty bad.

I also think she wins Virgin Islands--large black population there.

[jmowreader]

14. If she wins, it'll be even uglier for Bernie.

[Her Sister]

13. Ah give her 100 SUperdelegates!!

Thanks for the breakdown/analysis!! All is well!!!




HRC READY FOR DAY 1 and SUPERQUALIFIED!!!