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DanTex

(20,709 posts)
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 11:11 PM Apr 2016

The math probably just got harder for Bernie, despite the nominal win in WI.

Wisconsin is an open primary, largely liberal white electorate. The only thing better for him are the white caucus states, but those are almost done.

In order for Bernie to come close to catching up with Hillary, he's gonna have to do as well as he did in Wisconsin (or even better, depending on how this turns out) in states with closed primaries and much larger minority populations. Not likely.

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The math probably just got harder for Bernie, despite the nominal win in WI. (Original Post) DanTex Apr 2016 OP
Good figuring mainstreetonce Apr 2016 #1
David Wasserman at 538 still has Sanders needing 58% of remaining delegates. CalvinballPro Apr 2016 #2
According to the LA Times, he gained 16 delegates on the night jmowreader Apr 2016 #3
Every single pollster said he needed a BLOW OUT. A BLOW OUT is usually thought to be at least 25% Number23 Apr 2016 #4
More like 48-38. n/t Stand and Fight Apr 2016 #5
 

CalvinballPro

(1,019 posts)
2. David Wasserman at 538 still has Sanders needing 58% of remaining delegates.
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 11:22 PM
Apr 2016
http://53eig.ht/23frX6I

Coincidentally, after tonight both Trump and Sanders need 58 percent of remaining delegates to reach a majority (in Sanders’s case, this refers to pledged delegates only). But only Trump has a realistic path to a delegate majority, because the remaining Republican calendar is heavily winner-take-all. No such luck for Sanders on the Democratic side, where proportionality rules all.


The fundamentals of the race remain unchanged.

jmowreader

(50,562 posts)
3. According to the LA Times, he gained 16 delegates on the night
Tue Apr 5, 2016, 11:35 PM
Apr 2016

That still puts her about 250 pledged delegates ahead.

Let's do a little pencil work here. If he takes ALL the delegates from Wyoming - which is semi-possible - he goes to New York 231 delegates down. And in New York, my friends, Bernie is going to get stomped.

Mr. Sanders' last good day is in four days.

Number23

(24,544 posts)
4. Every single pollster said he needed a BLOW OUT. A BLOW OUT is usually thought to be at least 25%
Wed Apr 6, 2016, 03:53 AM
Apr 2016

He's had some BLOW OUTS before, like in Vermont. This wasn't one of them. Not even close.

His 13-14% win does precious little for his huge delegate deficit. Looks like he'll get around 50 to her 30 which is pitiful considering he's 250+ delegates behind, and that's NOT including the super delegates.

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