Let's say ALL the March 15 projections are 20 points off.
That is, let's say that the greatest political upset since 1984 is somehow endemic to all five of Tuesday's states. Essentially, subtract 10 points from Hillary, add 10 to Bernie, and give Bernie any undecideds.
The result? By my calculations . . .
Bernie wins Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri, and gains about 342 delegates.
Hillary wins Florida and North Carolina, and gains about 349 delegates.
The good news for Bernie would be that he gains 16 delegates on his target (against which he's currently 91 delegates behind). The bad news is that at this point, fully half of all pledged delegates will have been allocated -- and of the delegates that are left, Hillary needs 44.5% of them.
Now, if all the remaining states have suddenly swung toward Bernie -- if this was somehow decided on March 7, and Mississippi just didn't get the memo -- then yes, he will win. And if that's the case, I for one will support him wholeheartedly. Because the only explanation will be divine intervention, and who am I to go against God?
But if the endemic stops after just these five states, then Bernie is still pretty much finished.
Don't Panic, and GOTV!
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