STATE OF THE PRIMARY - March 5, 2016

[Chichiri]

Taken from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/ with permission of the author (me). As always, please kick this thread so that non-night-owls can see it.



Delegate Count

Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 1,058, Sanders 431 (Clinton +627).
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 609, Sanders 412 (Clinton +197).
Versus Targets: Clinton 609/529 (+80), Sanders 412/492 (-80).
2,383 delegates to secure nomination.
2,026 pledged delegates to secure the majority.
Clinton needs 46.8% of remaining pledged delegates.


Latest Results

Super Tuesday: Clinton 518, Sanders 347 (Clinton +171).
Versus Targets: Clinton 518/453 (+65), Sanders 347/412 (-65).


Next Primary: March 5

Kansas, Louisiana, Nebraska: 109 delegates total.
Targets: Clinton 57, Sanders 52.


Latest Polls

Florida (University of North Florida): Clinton 54, Sanders 24 (Clinton +30).
Mississippi (Magellan): Clinton 65, Sanders 11 (Clinton +54).
Louisiana (Magellan): Clinton 61, Sanders 14 (Clinton +47).


Current Polls-Plus Projections

Louisiana: Clinton 75.0, Sanders 17.9.
Michigan: Clinton 64.0, Sanders 33.3.
Mississippi: Clinton 79.2, Sanders 14.5.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.6, Sanders 35.8
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.7.
Florida: Clinton 66.3, Sanders 30.7.
Illinois: Clinton 66.2, Sanders 29.7.


Current Endorsement Score

Clinton 478, Sanders 5.



Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 338, Cruz 236, Rubio 112.
Michigan Projection: Trump 39, Cruz 21, Rubio 20.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 168, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.



Comments
Happy March 5th! Kansas, Nebraska, and Louisiana vote today, Maine tomorrow.

Kansas, Nebraska, and Maine are all states that demographically favor Bernie, and are all "black box" states, meaning there are no recent polls or projections. So far Bernie is two for two in such states, so my guess is that he will win all three by decent margins. Indeed, he may win more delegates than Hillary will win in Louisiana -- she is projected to win there by a landslide, but only 51 delegates are up for grabs in the Bayou State. So Bernie might finish the weekend with a notch taken out of his 197-delegate deficit.

Then, of course, come Mississippi and Michigan on Tuesday.

Thanks to everyone who sent me well wishes during my recovery from a brief but nasty stomach bug. I'm still recovering, and taking it easy for a while, but it probably gets better from here.


How This Works
The total delegate count is taken from the AP. All other information is taken from FiveThirtyEight unless otherwise indicated. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The target numbers indicate how many delegates each candidate would have to earn, or to have, in order to be on track to tie for the nomination, accounting for demographics. The projection numbers indicate the average of the candidates' expected vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's at least a 10% chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state.


Pun of the Day
He's a pessimist, which means his blood type is B-negative!

[SunSeeker]

1. K & R

[stonecutter357]

2. K&R!

[yallerdawg]

3. A look back at Super Tuesday.

Why Senator Sanders (I-VT) has such an impossible path.

His three 'unexpected victories.' Counting ALL delegates to date:

Colorado 38-36

Minnesota 47-44

Oklahoma 22-18

This is a Hillary deficit of -9.

Now let's pick one state for Hillary.

Alabama 48-9

"Yeah, we won three states."

Hey - have a few more!

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-PU.phtml

[Chichiri]

9. +1

[MarianJack]

4. Good morning from Winthrop, Maine!

I will say again, don't be so quick to count us as a loss. There has been no polling here and we don't tend to be Don Quixote's.

PEACE!

[Zing Zing Zingbah]

5. Some info on the Maine caucuses

Yeah, it seems they haven't been polling around here lately, so I think we don't have much to go on to predict the outcome. I do like how the democrats have 530+ caucus locations compared to only 22 among the republicans. Democracts also allowed any registered democrat to submit an absentee ballot, like I did. I wouldn't have been afforded that luxury if I were a republican in this state. They only let active military and disabled vets submit absentee ballots. 22 locations is not very good for the republicans. That means a lot of people will be forced to travel pretty far to caucus as a republican (and they can't submit absentee ballot). Seems like they don't really want republican Mainers to participate this year. Article says the Maine republicans made a stink last year about Ron Paul, so maybe this is their punishment, but I'm not sure how it was like for the Maine republican caucuses in years past.

http://www.pressherald.com/2016/02/29/maine-parties-gearing-up-for-unpredictable-caucuses/

[livetohike]

6. Interesting info. Thanks for posting this.

[MarianJack]

11. In 2012 the Maine Republican/teabagger caucuses were a DISASTER!

Most of this because Charley Webster, their state chair at the time, was DETERMINED to have Willard win, even though an apparent majority (or pluality) supported someone else. If I recall, little Ricky Santorum's supporters moved to Ron Paul or the other way around. Webster would have NONE of anybody but Willard winning, by hook or by (typical of the R/ts) crook. Maine Republicans/teabaggers looked foolish coast to coast, which is pretty easy for them to do in this era of Paul LePage.

PEACE!

[livetohike]

7. Thanks for this! Glad you are feeling a little

better.

[NurseJackie]

8. "Clinton needs 46.8% of remaining pledged delegates." --- That seems doable! :-D

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[UtahLib]

10. K&R