How to watch Tuesday's returns like a data geek!

[Chichiri]

From RCP: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/02/29/how_to_watch_tuesdays_returns_like_a_data_geek_129814.html

In the Democratic primary, delegates are also awarded to the winner of each congressional district (or sometimes smaller political subdivisions). And due to a combination of the Voting Rights Act, African-Americans being clustered in cities and some creative district drawing by Republicans, Southern African-Americans are often concentrated in a few congressional districts. This gives Sanders an advantage. If Clinton wins a state by driving up her margins in a few heavily or significantly African-American congressional districts, Sanders could still pick up a modest haul from the more numerous districts that are whiter and more rural.

Clinton will almost assuredly win a substantial majority of the votes cast on Super Tuesday, but the data nerds will be watching how much those pad her delegate lead.

The cross-tabs: white voters and young voters. If Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, he would likely have done so by keeping the race close with Hispanics, losing African-Americans by a large margin and driving up his margins with whites enough to offset those losses with blacks. So if you’re interested in whether Sanders has a path to the nomination, you should probably take a look at how well he does with those groups in the exit polls.

It goes on to explain why you should never ever trust entrance polls, and lists some nifty results sites to watch.

[jmowreader]

1. This discounts one significant problem for Sanders

The only voting-age population group (I use that qualifier because people too young to vote just love the guy, but they can't vote anyway so it's immaterial) in which Sanders holds substantial leads over Clinton is never-married Caucasians 18 to 25 years of age who are either in college or have graduated. He is somewhat popular with never-married Caucasians 26 to 30 years of age who hold Bachelor's degrees. In all other population groups, Clinton is more popular.

There's a truism in American politics that people tend to vote for people who are like them. This, more than anything, explains why Hillary is leading the Democratic polls: you could, with a little stretch of the imagination, see yourself in Hillary's shoes. Bernie is a different story.

[Lucinda]

2. Thanks for this! They have a few live return site I was aware of!

Going to be an interesting night!

[Gothmog]

3. I will keep this in mind for Tuesday night