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Hillary Clinton

Chichiri

(4,667 posts) Sat Feb 27, 2016, 06:38 PM Feb 2016

The Final SC Projection:

FiveThirtyEight projects Clinton 67.0%, Sanders 28.7%, plus or minus 5%. Hillary's chance of winning is greater than 99%.

If the undecideds split evenly, I estimate Hillary will get 36 or 37 delegates, leaving 16 or 17 for Bernie. Nate's median vote split for this state is Hillary +20% (interestingly, it was +11% last week; I don't know what changed it), so anything below 40% of the total will leave Bernie that much farther behind in the "good" states after Super Tuesday.

There will be a brief flurry of excitement at 7 when the polls close, and then we settle in for the wait. We're looking to see how much Hillary wins by, and how many delegates she takes. We'll probably have the first delegate numbers in a few hours, if not sooner, and the final count in a day or two.