Hillary Clinton

Chichiri

(4,667 posts) Fri Feb 26, 2016, 12:32 PM Feb 2016

STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 26, 2016

Taken from http://stateoftheprimary.blogspot.com/ with permission of the author (me).

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count

Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 505, Sanders 71 (Clinton +433)
Pledged Delegates: Clinton 52, Sanders 51 (Clinton +1).

Latest Results

Nevada Caucuses: Clinton 20, Sanders 15 (Clinton +5).
Vote Spread: Clinton 52.6, Sanders 47.3 (Clinton +5).
Versus Median Projection (538): Clinton +5.

Next Primary

South Carolina, February 27 (53 pledged delegates).
Median projection (538): Clinton +20.

[font color="darkblue"]Latest Polls

Texas (Crosswind Media): Clinton 66, Sanders 26 (Clinton +40).
Texas (SurveyUSA): Clinton 61, Sanders 32 (Clinton +29).
Pennsylvania (Franklin & Marshall): Clinton 48, Sanders 27 (Clinton +21).
Texas (Monmouth): Clinton 64, Sanders 30 (Clinton +34).
South Carolina (Clemson University): Clinton 64, Sanders 14 (Clinton +50).
Wisconsin (Marquette): Sanders 44, Clinton 43 (Sanders +1).
Massachusetts (WBUR/MassINC): Clinton 49, Sanders 44 (Clinton +5).
Florida (PPP): Clinton 57, Sanders 32 (Clinton +25).

Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)

South Carolina: Clinton 67.2, Sanders 28.5.
Arkansas: Clinton 65.0, Sanders 31.6.
Georgia: Clinton 72.9, Sanders 23.6.
Massachusetts: Clinton 49.7, Sanders 47.1.
Oklahoma: Clinton 52.8, Sanders 43.7 .
Tennessee: Clinton 65.7, Sanders 31.2.
Texas: Clinton 66.7, Sanders 30.3.
Vermont: Sanders 86.0, Clinton 11.7.
Virginia: Clinton 64.4, Sanders 32.6.
Michigan: Clinton 61.6, Sanders 35.6.
North Carolina: Clinton 60.8, Sanders 35.9.
Ohio: Clinton 61.0, Sanders 36.7.

Current Endorsement Score (538)

Clinton 473, Sanders 3.

[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP

Pledged Delegates: Trump 82, Cruz 17, Rubio 16.
538 Georgia Projection: Cruz 36, Trump 26, Rubio 23.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 150, Cruz 34, Kasich 31.

[font color="black"]Comments
Four days to Super Tuesday -- and South Carolina is tomorrow! Hillary has, and has had for a while, a greater than 99% chance to win South Carolina. It won't even be very exciting. The only question to be answered is, how many delegates will each candidate take? Based on the vote spread projection, my educated guess is that Hillary will take 34 delegates, and Bernie 19.

Wait a second . . . Bernie has only 14 points in South Carolina? I am very dubious. My guess is that that Clemson poll is an outlier. I'm sticking with 34 and 19.

Nate Silver has updated his median projections for each state; these are the vote spreads which Bernie has to beat in order to get the nomination. He now has lower expectations in South Carolina, but higher expectations pretty much everywhere else, probably given the expected results in South Carolina tomorrow.

There is one piece of much-needed good news for the Bernie campaign: a new poll has him up by 1 in Wisconsin.

That new Florida poll, however, is very bad news -- I don't know any road to a Bernie nomination that doesn't go through Florida. (If you do, please comment and let me know.)

How This Works
The delegate counts, pledged and total, are taken from AP. The total delegate count includes both pledged delegates, based on their margins in the states which have voted, and superdelegates, who have declared their intention to vote for one of the candidates (but may change their mind before the convention).

The projections and endorsement scores are maintained by FiveThirtyEight; the numbers indicate the population mean of the candidates' vote shares. Italic font denotes that the 80% confidence intervals of the candidates overlap, meaning there's a reasonable chance that the person with the higher vote share will not win that state. The median projection for a state is the expected outcome in that state if the national vote is tied 50-50; whichever candidate exceeds the median projection draws closer to winning the nomination; the other drops farther behind.

[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
When the Minnesota winter ends, the trees are always relieved!