538 Gives Clinton a 69% Chance of Winning NV Caucus

[vdogg]

Remembering yesterday how breathless everyone was in GDP about Bernie overtaking Clinton on 538 (based on a single 45/45 poll), I find it curious how the updated chances haven't been posted today. Not wanting my fellow DUers to go without pertinent information, let me share this link.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

In actuality, this is close, no one on either side should be dancing the jig just yet.

[radical noodle]

1. Thank you!

[workinclasszero]

2. Woo-hoo!

A victory in Nevada then on to SC and a total wipeout of Bernie will put a whole new spin on the Bernie Underground I bet!

[Cha]

3. Wow, what a switch, vdogg.. We'll know soon what the actual reality is.

Mahalo!

[lunamagica]

4. YAY!!!!! WOOHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[lunamagica]

5. Yesterday, Nate was their hero...wonder what will they say today?

[BlueCaliDem]

10. ...

[Satch59]

6. Love this news...

And a big flip from yesterday...whew...but still won't feel good until it's over and won. I know it was posted that GOPers can register and vote in this but would voters go out of their way and caucus for an hour or so just to stop Hillary? On a Sat, most people's precious day off?

[vdogg]

8. This being on a Saturday

Is why I think the youth vote will not be as high as they expect. When I was 18 in college, no way was I spending a precious Saturday off to caucus all day in a primary. Not saying youth won't show up, just not expecting a huge turnout.

[BlueCaliDem]

11. Well, Friday nights are kickback and clubbing nights, so...

I speak out of experience. My daughter loves to go out on Friday nights until the weeeeee hours of the morning. If she had to caucus for a candidate on Saturday, I doubt she'd show up. Thank god we actually have elections in California! And absentee at that!

[pandr32]

7. A Clinton victory in Nevada would be good medicine

Not only would it give us all an excuse to party hardy here with some serious whoo-hoos and smilie thing-a-ma-jiggies, but it would help to give us some good headlines in this rather tough-on-Hillary media. It would be the fresh air we all need.
The fight will be a long and tough one, but in the end we will have Madame President.

[6chars]

9. Predictwise about the same

[BlueCaliDem]

12. Well, maybe we *shouldn't* be dancing, but...

[Gothmog]

13. This is great news

[Stuckinthebush]

14. I'm not worried

Remember, given the Cook Report targets Clinton needs only around 47% of delegates from NV. She will get that without an issue. I do think she will win the caucuses but even a close loss will give her what she needs from NV.

SC will be a blowout as will most states on March 1st.

[vdogg]

15. It would be best to win

A loss will mean a full week of "Clinton campaign collapsing" media narrative. We can't afford that.

[Stuckinthebush]

16. No we can't....our mental health is at stake

Here at DU!

Lord, I'm ready for the wind to get out of the Sanders sails!