The falacy(?) of the fickle superdelegates

[HappyinLA]

So I decided to do a little research on the superdelegates of 2008 and look into the whole "they switched to Obama!" thing.

Here is what I found...

Yes, some superdelegates switched from Hillary To Obama. Only it's not as simple as that.

First, only 50 switched. At the time the count was roughly HRC 296 / BO 428 (this is superdelegates only) out of 823 total. When the 50 switched the totals became 246/478.

And the 50 who switched, only did so after Obama was able to gather half of the supers (~412) first. In essence the superdelegates had their own private primary and Obama won.

They didn't switch because of popular vote count, or who won what State. It was entirely a case of first person to win the majority of superdelegates.

In 2016, there are 712 superdelegates. Half would be 356. Hillary already has 355. So the though of any high number of Distinguished party leaders, Governors, Senators, Representatives and DNC members suddenly changing their votes is practically nil.

[wysi]

1. Thank you for clearing this up...

There was a lot of misinformation being thrown about yesterday.

[HillDawg]

2. And I really doubt many..

Will switch this year, given that Sanders is no Obama and has not really been all that loyal, per say, to the party of the years. To put it in other terms, it makes much more sense from a political point of view to switch from Hillary to Obama than it does to switch from Hillary to Bernie.

[BlueCaliDem]

3. These are little details the generals in the Bernie army like to hide from their

least-suspecting foot soldiers.

Thank you for bringing clarity into it - and it explains why those self-proclaimed "generals" are so angry that the superdelegate rule in Democratic Party primary elections exist, calling it "undemocratic". Right. Alerting and hiding posts that expose their chosen candidate is the essence of democracy? Really?

[Tarheel_Dem]

4. "Nil" is the operative word here. Hillary & Obama were both "Democrats", that's not the case in 2016

[72DejaVu]

5. Team Bernie is deliberately spreading misinformation

I've probably read 10 times today that "the DNC awarded the NH super delegates" to Clinton. People keep posting it all over social media, using the exact same wording.

It's a lie, a clever twisting of the actual situation and it's stirring up the low info Sanders voters.

Since the people getting so mad are already supporting Sanders, it serves no purpose other than ensuring that Hillary's eventual victory is seen as tainted.

[Godhumor]

7. I've totally heard that Superdelegates are awarded by coin flip

And that Clinton has won then all.

Something is rotten in Denmark. If this were Denmark. Which it totally will be when Bernie wins. Unless the coin flip Superdelegates reject the will of the people.

[72DejaVu]

11. Well, you know where the coin came from?

They got it at a BANK! So, there ya go.

[leftofcool]

16. You two are soooooooooooooooooo bad!

[Treant]

6. Most of Clinton's

supers didn't change over to Obama until June--when Clinton conceded the race, threw her support behind Obama, and released her superdelegates.

You're right, they're not unfaithful, and I simply don't see it happening in this race unless Sanders dominates so strongly throughout so many states it's a clear win with no remaining margin.

The chances of that are essentially zero. The chances of him dominating in delegates at all is essentially zero. Hell, he couldn't do much better than break even in IA plus NH, two very friendly states with open caucuses.

[LannyDeVaney]

8. What's funny is it's much ado about nothing ...

as Secretary Clinton is going to have a huge delegate advantage soon. You know, the mere mortal delegates.

The numbers still indicate she'll win the nomination going away.

[mgmaggiemg]

9. HRC 2016

HRC did very well in NH especially given that she did not bend over for the gun nuts....NH is no one in gun manufacturing....bernie has rolled over for them for votes....and his nh supporters may just vote for trump in the general to boot...her post primary speech was fantastic...she demonstrated that she has her priorities in order ..she will do well in s.carolina....

[Lucinda]

14. Oh good grief....I never made the connection of NH and gun manufacturing before

I be slow sometimes!

[leftofcool]

17. Didn't you see where he won with the gun owners and supporters? 68%

[Lucinda]

19. Naw...i've been out of DU since earlier today, and have clearly missed A LOT.

It explains a whole lot to me...Young adults were not any more active than previous years, so I was wondering where the crowds they were talking about were coming from. I know Bernie is popular on his own, but Clinton is out there loud and firm on making some inroads in gun safety, so that could have also given Bernie a nice big boost.

And for me, it is worth every single vote lost to her gun stance, if it makes people safer. It is way past time that national leaders were standing up for sensible additions to the purchasing process.

[radical noodle]

10. Thanks!

Although I'm sure Bernie supporters will demand a change to give special treatment for their candidate. After all, they love him, therefore he has to win.

[Treant]

12. Quite frankly,

their inability to read and understand the rules of the game is...concerning.

He re-registered as a Democrat to carpetbag the nomination, which means he either read or should have read all these rules, and that he agrees with them. Therefore, no complaints.

[DesertRat]

18. I'm sure that Bernie knows the rules of the party he signed up for

It's his supporters who don't seem to understand them.

[Treant]

20. I remain uncertain of that...

Bernie's made absolutely no visible effort to amass superdelegate votes, relying on "the will of the people" to carry him through.

Alas, that will of the people is about to reality-slap him rather badly in NV and SC, and it doesn't get that much better from there.

[Cha]

21. I agree.

[stopbush]

13. Yep. This is what the Berniebots don't want to understand.

There is a difference between running for an office and running to become the nominee of a POLITICAL PARTY, like the Ds.

The party has rules because it exists to get Ds elected. Not progressives. Not socialists. Not liberals. Democrats.

I'm hearing how "unfair" and "undemocratic" it is that the party has super delegates. Hey, if you don't like it, form your own political party and run as their candidate.

If Bernie can rack up a long string of 60% wins in the D primaries, he will get the nomination even if 100% of the super delegates go Hillary's way. But if the split is closer to 50-50 in regular delegates, well, the person with the larger number of committed super delegates wins. Period. End of story.

Bernie knew the rules going in. Obviously, he felt he had a better chance to get to the general election by calling himself a D and accepting the party's nominating procedures than he did to run as an I. To now suggest that the process is somehow unfair is simply stupid.

[pandr32]

15. Thank you for this!

[Stuckinthebush]

22. Rec this up, folks!

Thanks, Happy! This is GREAT stuff!

[DesertRat]

23. KICK

[HappyinLA]

24. An update...

HRC now has 457 of 712 superdelegates. That's 64%. In effect she has won the superdelegate primary already.

[MSMITH33156]

25. Very interesting

I had just assumed they all went with Obama.

In 2016, it's all going to be academic anyway. They could 100% vote for Sanders and he'd still lose.

[lunamagica]

26. K&R. Take Rep. Lewis, for example. He switched to Obama only after

his constituents went for him. But now that they voted for Hillary? He has no reason to switch, and he won't

[Haveadream]

27. All these rumors

of scandal and cheating are getting pretty old. One of the reasons I hope the Bernster stays in the race is so Hillary can so thoroughly thrash him that his supporters have no BS left to fall back on.