Hillary will still get more delegates in NH

[leftofcool]

It's all about the delegates, not about the wins:

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-02-09#NH-Dem



Here is the way I understand NH:

There are 32 delegates: 8 are chosen statewide in the primary, 8 are chosen in Congressional District 1 in the primary, 8 are chosen in Congressional District 2 in the primary, and 8 are for political insiders (they call them "superdelegates&quot .

Even the delegates chosen in the primary aren't allocated in proportion to the vote, but according to arbitrary cutoffs. As a result:
• If Sanders gets less than 56.3% of the vote (in the state or either congressional district), the 8 relevant delegates are split 4-4 between him and Clinton.
• If Sanders gets 56.3% or more, but less than 68.8%, he gets 5 delegates of the relevant 8 delegates, and Clinton gets 3 delegates.
It doesn't look like Sanders is getting more than 68.8% anywhere, so each of the three groups of 8 will be either 4-4 or 5-3. As a result, the Sanders advantage among the 24 "elected" delegates will be somewhere between 15-9 and 12-12.
There are still the 8 political-insider delegates ("superdelegates&quot . These aren't formally committed to any candidate. You can expect all or most of these 8 to go for Hillary unless the party hierarchy pulls its support for her. I think 6 of the 8 have already announced that they are for her.

If all 8 of the insiders vote for Hillary, that brings the range to somewhere between 15 Sanders - 17 Clinton at the low end to 12 Sanders - 20 Clinton at the high end. (If not all the insiders vote for Clinton, it may not be quite so extreme.)

Sanders is getting around 60% of the vote, but he'll probably get a minority of the 32 New Hampshire delegates.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

1. Cold comfort.

They cannot rely on winning with super delegates. They need a completely new and unexpected tactic. Flint, MI may give them some of what is needed. Attention and specific plans for trouble spots around the country. Like Clean energy plants in towns where coal mines will be and are shut down.

Right now climate change has a leg up because of the SCOTUS 5/4 decision today. How will the candidates address this when it is barely discussed in debates by the Dems and not at all by the Reps?

Now is when crisis becomes opportunity. Not a blame off between Bernie and Hillary supporters.

[HillDawg]

3. She won't need the super delagates..

at the end because I am convinced she will win convincingly elsewhere, but I think the point of it moreso is that even in a state that looked to go so poorly, Hillary still came out ahead from a technical point of view.

[LannyDeVaney]

7. Yes, I am still extremely confident that she will ultimately win the nominatino by a huge margin ...

and I enjoy the irony from:

1. A group of supporters have a fit when you accuse their candidate of not being a Democrat, but,

2. Same group doesn't know who the Democratic Party does elections.

I'll just assume that Sanders is so anti-Establishment that he will refuse any superdelegates. That'll show the Party.

[Tommy2Tone]

4. So true and I tire of mostly white leftist

telling me, a moderate Democrat, I don't matter. Progressives are like the Tea Party in that they seem to not give a shit about working in the the real world. When is the last time a true progressive was relevant in a national election. Let me tell you, never.

Hillary is a reflection of my views. Bernie is a reflection of people who trash presidents Obama and Clinton like they are enemies. I will leave the party if he wins the nomination.

Yea I am pissed off.

[Stuckinthebush]

5. True

We are moderate Dems in the South. Sanders won't win down here. No way no how.

[Tommy2Tone]

6. Texas here and there is not space between you and I.

[Nonhlanhla]

9. This is the Hillary Clinton Group.

Apparently you are unaware of that.

[wysi]

10. I voted policy

I voted for Hillary Clinton, and will be proud to do so again in November.

[HillDawg]

12. So you'd rather..

have a Conservative in office than Hillary??? Makes total sense. If the Bernie supporters were serious about this amazing "Revolution".. the last thing you want is a conservative in office. Literally makes no sense.

[Major Nikon]

14. Results...

On Sat Feb 13, 2016, 05:41 PM an alert was sent on the following post:

The NH primary was stolen from the people
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1107&pid=46949

REASON FOR ALERT

This post is disruptive, hurtful, rude, insensitive, over-the-top, or otherwise inappropriate.

ALERTER'S COMMENTS

1 post member stating they won't vote for the Democratic nominee unless it's their choice.

You served on a randomly-selected Jury of DU members which reviewed this post. The review was completed at Sat Feb 13, 2016, 05:49 PM, and the Jury voted 1-6 to LEAVE IT.

Juror #1 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Doesn't advocate for others to do it.
Juror #2 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Indeed, a one-post wonder attacking a possible Dem nominee...but as these sort of posts go, this is pretty much par for the course...the hell with it, I'm in a generous mood...
Juror #3 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: Lots of people with higher post counts have said the same thing
Juror #4 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #5 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #6 voted to HIDE IT
Explanation: No explanation given
Juror #7 voted to LEAVE IT ALONE
Explanation: No explanation given

[George II]

13. I call those last 8 Superdelegates, which they are. "Insiders" is a Sanders characterizatation.